Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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841
FXUS64 KMAF 252045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper trough that was off the PacNW coast
yesterday has dug south to nrn CA, remaining offshore, and slowly
transitioning NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
to zonal.  Closer to home, return has resumed, but afternoon highs
will top out well-below normal, ranging from the upper 50s north to
near 80 south.  Despite the cooler wx, current obs show several
locations in the Guadalupes hitting RF conditions due to a very dry
AMS in place.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for further details.

The west coast trough is forecast to open over SOCAL late tonight,
and move thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Sunday.  This will
be accompanied by a weak Pac front, but afternoon temps should still
rebound to above-normal, hitting the 70s most locations.  Model
soundings over the Guadalupes mix to above 650mb Sunday afternoon,
where 45-50kt westerlies are forecast.  However, mid clouds over the
area may inhibit mixing somewhat, making for a very marginal winds
event.  Because of this, we`ll leave the High Wind Watch in place.

Meanwhile, another upper trough off the PacNW coast is forecast to
open and move inland Sun/Mon, transitioning zonal flow aloft to SW
Monday.  Forecast soundings do not mix as deep Mon as Sun, but 40-
45kt southwesterlies are forecast, w/a little less cloud cover.
We`ll go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for Monday as well, as
the NAM mtn wave signature looks a little more pronounced than on
Sunday.

Tuesday should be the warmest day this forecast as the upper trough
moves thru the region, w/downslope warming pumping afternoon temps
to the upper 70s and 80s over much of the area.  Unfortunately, a
strong cold front arrives Wednesday to knock temps back down below-
normal, where they will stay for a few days.  Weak return flow
resumes by Thursday, but temps should not get back to above-normal
until Saturday.  Models bring a trough thru the region over the
weekend, and there might be enough moisture in place over the lwr
Trans Pecos by then for a little -RA, but model solutions by this
time are quite discordant, so this will likely change.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active fire weather pattern looks to continue into next week. A
dry air mass remains over the region, and despite a cold front last
night and cooler temperatures today, RHs have dropped below 15
percent across western portions of the forecast area. Fortunately
for most, winds will remain below critical levels, though the
exception is in the Guadalupe Mountains where 30 to 35 mph winds
with higher gusts (especially across higher elevations) will result
in Critical Fire Weather Conditions through early this evening.
Thus, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for that area.

Recovery tonight will be poor across the west, where fire weather
concerns will increase on Sunday.  Temperatures will rebound above
normal, with afternoon RHs expected to drop under 15 percent for
most of the area.  The area of greatest concern is again the
Guadalupe Mountains, where very strong winds will develop by late
morning, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Sunday
morning through Sunday afternoon. Given the low RHs, Elevated Fire
Weather Conditions are expected over a larger portion of the area,
though portions of the southeastern New Mexico Plains and Upper
Trans Pecos may see brief critical fire weather conditions Sunday
afternoon. Model guidance indicates the potential for increased
850mb winds just prior to 00Z Monday across Southeast New Mexico and
portions of northern Culberson and Reeves counties, however, given
the uncertainty in this scenario, as well as the borderline nature
of expected winds, have elected to forego any expansion of the
current Fire Weather Watch.

Winds are expected to further increase on Monday and Tuesday, and
given continued above normal temperatures, poor/fair recovery, and
continued drying of available fuels, elevated/critical fire weather
conditions look to persist.  Cooler temperatures and slightly
increased RH could provide a reprieve on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  35  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  44  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  42  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  39  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  34  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  27  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  34  73  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44

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