Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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413
FXUS64 KMAF 262327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered storms are diminishing this evening, though outflow
boundaries will maintain easterly winds at area terminals through
around 02Z before southeasterly winds return. A few storms could
affect HOB through 02Z, with gusty wind/brief heavy rain possible.
The other concern is the potential for MVFR stratus to impact MAF
around 12-15Z, thus have maintained the TEMPO mention for now.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, though thunderstorms will
be possible again Saturday afternoon, yielding potential MVFR
conditions in heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U.S.
while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the
Intermountain West.  The trough pinches off and develops a cut off
low over AZ by Sunday that seems to make little progression east
before weakening.  Early next week the sub tropical ridge builds
west reestablishing itself over the area.

As of early afternoon still have significant cloud cover over much
of the region.  An errattic but predominately south wind field
helping to keep low level moisture elevated across the area with
dewpts in the 60s nearly areawide.  Expect low clouds across the
Permian Basin again Saturday morning.  Not expecting much change in
the surface flow the next couple of days.  By Monday a weak
boundary/wind shift line sags into the area with the wind becoming
easterly along it.

The increased moisture... cloud cover... and area rain has been
keeping temperatures below normal for late August.  MAF has not
recorded a hundred degree reading since Aug 11.  Normal for this
time of year over the Permian Basin is 93 but most of the past week
has had highs in the 80s.  Latest long range forecast continues the
below normal trend into next week.

This afternoon have had significant develop of showers and
thunderstorms over the Eastern Permian Basin down into the Lower
Trans Pecos along a Theta E ridge.  Recent storms have been good
rain producers and training storms could result in locally heavy
rain.  Expecting the higher elevations to develop storms later
today/tonight and Saturday.  Will include pre first period and bump
up pops for this afternoon in the east and have also added isolated
pops east tonight.  A chance of storms continue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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