Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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181
FXUS64 KMAF 172354
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
654 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Storms are mainly confined to our southeast this evening. Low
clouds will develop later tonight and will likely move across the
Permian Basin and possibly further west. Have kept mention of
storms out of the TAFs for later tonight and Thursday due to
uncertainty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trough, that has been hanging out just east of the
forecast area the last few days, continues to slowly edge westward
today as upper ridging over the SE ConUS builds into SE TX. In
addition, moisture has been steadily increasing from the SE with
current dewpoints a good 10-15 degrees higher than 24 hours ago
across much of west TX. As a result of increased moisture, lift
and instability, showers and thunderstorms continue to affect
portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and SE Permian Basin this
afternoon. Best chance for rain will be along and SE of a Snyder
to Big Bend line through tonight then spread NW Thursday. Not
completely certain on how far west the upper trough axis will
shift by tomorrow but for now, best chances look to be along and
east of a Hobbs to Van Horn line. Locally heavy rainfall will be
of some concern as PWs increase to the 1.5-2" range across the
southeast overnight tonight. Cloud cover and increased
moisture/rain chances are expected to hold high temperatures in
the 80s across most locations today and Thursday.

Moisture will remain in place Friday and Saturday however the upper
shear axis looks to shift back to the east. As such, rain chances
shift to across the SE zones through Saturday morning. Temperatures
may have a chance to warm up into the 90s Friday, ahead of a cold
front that could arrive as early as Saturday afternoon, returning
cooler temps and rain to the forecast area. Models have not been
very consistent with the timing of this front, making for a tricky
temperature and precip forecast for Saturday. Previous model runs
had the front arriving late Saturday/early Sunday but latest runs
show it arriving midday Saturday. I like the faster scenario given
the expected upper pattern so will forecast the front to push
through Saturday afternoon. Have lowered high temps and increased
PoPs for Saturday. Decent rain chances continue into Sunday and
Monday with high temperatures only warming into the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  86  71  90 /  40  50  30  30
Carlsbad                       65  91  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  87  72  89 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  68  85  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  84  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  86  65  90 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          61  80  61  83 /  30  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  85  70  91 /  30  40  20  20
Odessa                         69  85  70  91 /  30  40  20  20
Wink                           70  89  69  95 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/

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