Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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957
FXUS64 KMAF 260824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  72  99  71  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73  97  72  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  92  69  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  69  98  69  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   93  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  99  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  73  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   102  74  99  73  /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

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