Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 291739 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1139 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
We have opted to go ahead and start the NPW for GDP Pass earlier
with winds increasing there in the last hr. Products will be
updated shortly for that.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty post-frontal NE winds will prevail today with G25-30kts most
sites, a little less farther s. Meanwhile clouds will increase thru
the day and into the night, but are not expected to fall below MVFR
before 12Z/Fri.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will push south through all area terminals through
29/18Z with gusty north to northeast winds in it`s wake.  Ceilings
and visibilities will stay VFR through the day, and even overnight
as surface winds gradually decrease.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

The stage is set for another round of unsettled weather beginning
tonight and continuing through at least Saturday night. A cold
front is currently sagging south through southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin. This front will continue to push south as an
upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and east coast
today. Behind this front temperatures will get knocked back to
near normal values this afternoon. In addition, strong northeast
winds will channel through Guadalupe Pass behind this front
tonight and Friday morning and a High Wind Warning has been issued
for that area.

In the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently
along the west coast will close off and intensify and move slowly
southeast across the desert southwest and then east across Mexico
the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong large scale
forcing is expected to produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning tonight through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region the northern stream will
continue to supply colder low level air. Forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a mixed bag of rain, snow, sleet tonight
through Friday and or Saturday night across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains. Still
not sure how much snow accumulation will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains because the NAM model is showing a pronounced and
persistent mid level warm layer while the GFS model is not. If it
turns out that the warm layer is minimal, than a few inches of
snow and sleet could accumulate in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupes. Outside of that region, the best chance of any
accumulating snow will be across the northern third of Lea County
New Mexico tonight through Friday night, but less than 1 inch is
expected in a best case scenario at this time per a blend of
model soundings.

By Sunday the upper level trough axis is expected to approach the
area with the upper low sinking south and weakening through
Mexico. The better forcing will diminish and shift away from the
area as the upper low sinks south, so precipitation chances will
be on the decrease. In addition by this time period the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall as rain.

By Sunday night through next Wednesday the upper level low
pressure system is forecast to continue to weaken and move
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south
of the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate to normal by
next Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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