Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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629
FXUS64 KMAF 041131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting HOB and MAF this morning then possible TSRA this
afternoon. Currently have some scattered showers and thunderstorms
near PEQ and CNM this morning but will only include mention of
SHRA at CNM for now. Could see this activity affect other sites
through the morning and will make adjust if needed. Expect MVFR
cigs to affect MAF and HOB for a few hours this morning then
return to VFR by mid/late morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop across much of the region this afternoon but tough to
pinpoint a specific time and location. For now, will prevail TSRA
at CNM and HOB beginning mid afternoon and INK and MAF early
evening. As for PEQ and FST, will add mention of thunder when
timing is more clear. Some storms could be severe and capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. Adjustments will likely
be needed to timing. Otherwise, gusty SE winds expected once again
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through late tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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