Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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144
FXUS64 KMAF 230524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  A 45kt low level jet
has develop over the Permian Basin and will affect the area until
23/14Z or thereabouts before moving northeast of the region.
Surface winds will stay gusty from the south/southeast over the
Permian Basin as a result, but will include a low level wind shear
group at KMAF from 23/10z until 23/14Z when surface winds decouple.
MVFR ceilings will develop to the east of the area and attempt to
move into the Permian Basin.  Since the probability is low will not
include these lower ceilings at KMAF at this time, but will monitor.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  Will also monitor for any changes to this assessment.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
963
FXUS64 KMAF 222218
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will veer
overnight to SW and gusty by Wednesday afternoon in response to
leeside troughing north. Lastest NAM forecast soundings suggest CU
development Wednesday will be a struggle, and only expected late
at KMAF and KFST, w/bases 7-9 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27
796
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs. Moderate
southeast flow will increase overnight ahead of a strong storm
system to our west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29
281
FXUS64 KMAF 221056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A developing
surface trough across extreme west Texas is expected to
produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight
across areas mainly west of the Pecos River. Expected
areal coverage of storms is too low to mention at any
of the terminals. Southeast winds will increase to 10
to 20 mph and gusty by mid morning and continue through
this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67
618
FXUS64 KMAF 220501
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. East winds of 5 to 15 mph overnight will become southeast
at 10 to 20 mph and gutsy by mid Tuesday morning and continue
through Tuesday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10
723
FXUS64 KMAF 212329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
679
FXUS64 KMAF 211607
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1107 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc winds will shift to
the north as a weak cold front sags into the area. Winds will then
quickly veer back to se as return flow resumes. Forecast soundings
develop widespread cu fields this afternoon (6-9 kft agl) and by
the end of the forecast period (5-9 kft agl).

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough over OK, leaving West
Texas/SE NM under NW flow aloft.  At the sfc, a very diffuse dryline
extended from the Wrn Low Rolling Plains down into the Big Bend,
whereas further north, a cold front was approaching the area.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around noon, but this should
have a negligible effect on afternoon highs.  All models develop
convection along the front east of the area later today, then
develop it westward along the front into the Lwr Trans Pecos by late
afternoon.

Tuesday, an upper-lvl ridge will build east into the region, but
quickly move on as the next trough builds into the PacNW.  As this
feature traverses the U.S.-Canadian border, flow aloft becomes SW,
and leeside troughing will induce westerly flow over the mountains,
all resulting in a weak dryline developing Wednesday afternoon.
Models differ slightly on where the dryline develops, but critical
fire wx conditions will be possible west of the dryline, and
convection along/east of the dryline.  This is too far out for a
Fire Wx Watch, so we`ve just outlooked it for
now.

Upper trough will pass thru the area Wednesday night, followed by SW
flow aloft as upper ridging develops over the Gulf Coast.  This will
result in well-abv normal temps Friday/Saturday.  Friday night,
another upper trough makes landfall on the west coast, and tilts
negatively into the upper Rockies Sunday.  This will result in
increasing westerly flow over the weekend, and more critical fire
wx.  Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a dryline event Saturday night,
w/the GFS further west than the ECMWF.  For now, we`ll keep the
grids dry, and advertise increasing winds, especially
Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
918
FXUS64 KMAF 211118
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will gradually clear out of the area over the next
couple of hours.  Winds will shift to the north starting later this
morning and will remain fairly light through the afternoon.  Winds
will shift to the east this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough over OK, leaving West
Texas/SE NM under NW flow aloft.  At the sfc, a very diffuse dryline
extended from the Wrn Low Rolling Plains down into the Big Bend,
whereas further north, a cold front was approaching the area.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around noon, but this should
have a negligible effect on afternoon highs.  All models develop
convection along the front east of the area later today, then
develop it westward along the front into the Lwr Trans Pecos by late
afternoon.

Tuesday, an upper-lvl ridge will build east into the region, but
quickly move on as the next trough builds into the PacNW.  As this
feature traverses the U.S.-Canadian border, flow aloft becomes SW,
and leeside troughing will induce westerly flow over the mountains,
all resulting in a weak dryline developing Wednesday afternoon.
Models differ slightly on where the dryline develops, but critical
fire wx conditions will be possible west of the dryline, and
convection along/east of the dryline.  This is too far out for a
Fire Wx Watch, so we`ve just outlooked it for
now.

Upper trough will pass thru the area Wednesday night, followed by SW
flow aloft as upper ridging develops over the Gulf Coast.  This will
result in well-abv normal temps Friday/Saturday.  Friday night,
another upper trough makes landfall on the west coast, and tilts
negatively into the upper Rockies Sunday.  This will result in
increasing westerly flow over the weekend, and more critical fire
wx.  Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a dryline event Saturday night,
w/the GFS further west than the ECMWF.  For now, we`ll keep the
grids dry, and advertise increasing winds, especially
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  59  86  62  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  58  87  59  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  90  64  89  65  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  60  89  65  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  57  79  60  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   84  55  84  61  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   80  48  80  50  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  60  88  61  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  61  87  63  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    91  60  90  61  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44
015
FXUS64 KMAF 210457
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and fog may develop around 12z for MAF and FST but
should be gone by 15z.  Winds will be light out of the south and
southwest overnight before a northerly wind shift moves through the
area around 18z.  Winds are expected to shift to the east Monday
evening and pick up in intensity by 06z Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It appears that despite the lack of a surface focus, low level
moisture enhanced from recent rains is giving enough instability
to allow scattered convection to develop. The bulk of it seems to
be getting help from higher terrain west of the Pecos River,
though a few cells are apparently developing due to daytime
heating and hard to discern mesoscale boundaries. A cell currently
in western Pecos County seems to be telling the story of the
vertical structure of the atmosphere...there is some instability,
but a very long anvil indicates the shear may be bigger factor
thus shearing the storms before they are able to grow large enough
to become severe. This isn`t too surprising given the near 50kts
of 0-6km shear to go along with only 500-1000 J/KG CAPE. Further
north in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin
shear drops dramatically and instability is even lower so
convection should not get too strong in this area. It will be in
the eastern Permian Basin where shear and POTENTIAL instability
will both be high enough to warrant a severe risk, though CIN due
to earlier rains and lingering clouds may be too much to realize
this instability. Therefore we are not looking for widespread
convection or certainly a severe threat though a few storms may
become severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
threat.

A weak cold front moves into the area with isolated convection
again possible along this boundary in the lower Trans Pecos as
well as the Davis Mountains where orographics will help out. The
front will bring little if any cool air, but southeast flow on the
back of the surface high will push more moisture into the
mountains Tuesday bringing another chance for isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the central plains
increasing westerly flow. This will sharpen a dryline across the
central Permian Basin from which all models once again show
convective initiation. It is possible there will be fire weather
concerns in the western CWA and severe weather concerns in the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. The dry air will push east with the
upper trough Thursday and continue into Friday leaving very dry
and hot (for this time of year) conditions. An upper trough
digging into the four corners area Saturday could bring a return
of rain chances, though there is not enough model consistent to
introduce PoPs into the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
246
FXUS64 KMAF 202329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Potential for tstms has diminished at TAF sites and the concern
overnight will be possibility of MVFR CIGS/VSBY at MAF toward 12z.
Otherwise a weak wind shift/cold front will move into the northern
sites between 13Z-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It appears that despite the lack of a surface focus, low level
moisture enhanced from recent rains is giving enough instability
to allow scattered convection to develop. The bulk of it seems to
be getting help from higher terrain west of the Pecos River,
though a few cells are apparently developing due to daytime
heating and hard to discern mesoscale boundaries. A cell currently
in western Pecos County seems to be telling the story of the
vertical structure of the atmosphere...there is some instability,
but a very long anvil indicates the shear may be bigger factor
thus shearing the storms before they are able to grow large enough
to become severe. This isn`t too surprising given the near 50kts
of 0-6km shear to go along with only 500-1000 J/KG CAPE. Further
north in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin
shear drops dramatically and instability is even lower so
convection should not get too strong in this area. It will be in
the eastern Permian Basin where shear and POTENTIAL instability
will both be high enough to warrant a severe risk, though CIN due
to earlier rains and lingering clouds may be too much to realize
this instability. Therefore we are not looking for widespread
convection or certainly a severe threat though a few storms may
become severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
threat.

A weak cold front moves into the area with isolated convection
again possible along this boundary in the lower Trans Pecos as
well as the Davis Mountains where orographics will help out. The
front will bring little if any cool air, but southeast flow on the
back of the surface high will push more moisture into the
mountains Tuesday bringing another chance for isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the central plains
increasing westerly flow. This will sharpen a dryline across the
central Permian Basin from which all models once again show
convective initiation. It is possible there will be fire weather
concerns in the western CWA and severe weather concerns in the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. The dry air will push east with the
upper trough Thursday and continue into Friday leaving very dry
and hot (for this time of year) conditions. An upper trough
digging into the four corners area Saturday could bring a return
of rain chances, though there is not enough model consistent to
introduce PoPs into the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
658
FXUS64 KMAF 201712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have stuck around most of the Permian Basin all morning
including KMAF. Expect these IFR cigs to break within the next
couple of hours. Thunderstorms currently to our northeast will
continue into north Texas with isolated development possible
across the rest of the region this afternoon. Will not include in
TAFS yet as timing and location of the storms is to be determined.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Adjustments to this afternoon`s weather grids for southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...
With clearing skies this morning and ample moisture in place across the
Marfa Plateau, diabatic heating will contribute to convective
development later this afternoon along higher terrain. Latest
model guidance supports this trend and have updated PoP, weather,
QPF, and sky grids. No other changes made to the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
850
FXUS64 KMAF 201549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Adjustments to this afternoon`s weather grids for southwest Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With clearing skies this morning and ample moisture in place across the
Marfa Plateau, diabatic heating will contribute to convective
development later this afternoon along higher terrain. Latest
model guidance supports this trend and have updated PoP, weather,
QPF, and sky grids. No other changes made to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Isolated areas of low clouds and fog will continue to impact the
area until about 15z.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the area this afternoon and evening with MAF and HOB having
the best chances of experiencing convection.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  86  59  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  85  57  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  83  58  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  90  63  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  89  61  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  60  76  57  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  52  83  54  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  45  79  49  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  59  88  58  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  60  88  60  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  57  90  58  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13
079
FXUS64 KMAF 201105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated areas of low clouds and fog will continue to impact the
area until about 15z.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the area this afternoon and evening with MAF and HOB having
the best chances of experiencing convection.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  86  59  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  85  57  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  83  58  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  90  63  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  89  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  60  76  57  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  52  83  54  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  45  79  49  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  59  88  58  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  60  88  60  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  57  90  58  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44
398
FXUS64 KMAF 200526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area for the next
couple of hours primarily affecting FST.  Low ceilings will likely
move into the area around 10z.  Additional showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible through the day Sunday but probabilities are
too low to mention in the TAFS at this time.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread
rainfall.

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
594
FXUS64 KMAF 192329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be the thunderstorm
activity affecting terminals through this evening. Currently have
strong storms over the Davis Mountains with gusty winds and hail
likely. Expect this storm to affect FST and possibly PEQ by 00-01Z.
Winds could gust up to 45kt at FST and have included mention of this
in a TEMPO. In addition, have TSRA at CNM, HOB and INK by 20/01Z
followed by MAF at 20/03Z. Will amend with any changes to current
thinking and/or radar trends. Brief low vsbys/cigs will be possible
with any storms that affect terminals. Otherwise, could see MVFR
cigs develop at MAF and possibly HOB early Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread
rainfall.

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
922
FXUS64 KMAF 191723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move northeast
across SE NM and the Trans Pecos region. Expect this activity to
move across the Permian Basin this afternoon with locally MVFR
cigs and gusty winds inside the thunderstorms. We may see a break
late this afternoon with more thunderstorms possible across the
area late this evening. MVFR cigs will likely move into KMAF
early Sunday morning as moisture continues to increase east of a
dryline.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
041
FXUS64 KMAF 191053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over SW AZ, and will
result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24 hours.
Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow this AM, w/some of
this making it into KMAF before 18Z. Otherwise, buffer soundings
suggest a widespread cu field developing by late morning, w/cigs
3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show some -SHRA in the area, and models
suggest more convection will develop into western terminals by
late morning. Cigs should remain VFR in convection, except SE NM,
where they could dip into MVFR at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
959
FXUS64 KMAF 190522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over nrn Baja, and
will result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24
hours. Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow
overnight, w/some of this making it into KMAF shortly after 12Z.
Otherwise, buffer soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/cigs 3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show
convection already creeping into Culberson County, and this will
develop into western terminals by late morning. Cigs should remain
VFR in convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
047
FXUS64 KMAF 182338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
272
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
819
FXUS64 KMAF 181126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03
001
FXUS64 KMAF 180535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will affect TAF locations overnight and into the
morning hours after sunrise with possible IFR ceilings at KMAF.
Surface winds will gradually become southeast across the area
later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing west of TAF routes could affect KCNM after 00Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03
047
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have NE winds across the region this evening and expect
winds to continue to veer to the east over the next several hours.
Low cigs currently hanging out over central TX but as winds become
more easterly, low level moisture will increase resulting in low cigs
at terminals by early morning Friday (roughly around 09-10Z). Have
kept mention of MVFR at all sites for now however forecast soundings
indicate ceilings could be lower with possibly some fog developing
at MAF and HOB for a couple of hours. Introduced IFR cigs at MAF but
no other site just yet. Will also hold off on mention of low vsbys
attm. Cloud deck should lift and scatter by 15-16Z Friday morning as
southeast winds return to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
353
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80
481
FXUS64 KMAF 171100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
814
FXUS64 KMAF 170458
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected at
southeast New Mexico and southwest terminals through Thursday
evening.

Shortly before 05Z, a cold front was pushing through eastern New
Mexico, located just north of a line from Artesia to Crossroads.
This front will push through CNM, HOB, INK, MAF, and PEQ by 12Z
and FST by 18Z shifting winds to north and northeast. Winds are
expected to remain elevated and gusty at times across the Permian
Basin until the front approaches around 12Z. A strong low level
jet will bring low level wind shear to MAF, HOB and INK terminals
overnight. Though some low cloudiness is expected behind the
front, low ceilings are presently expected to remain east of MAF.
Winds will veer to east and northeast across the region Thursday
afternoon and evening. By 06Z, low clouds may push into the
region from the east, affecting MAF and FST by 06Z. For this
TAF issuance, will keep low clouds scattered though ceilings are
expected after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with a few high clouds.  A gusty south
wind will continue through the evening as a surface low remains
over eastern NM.  A cold front will blow into the area late
tonight/early Thursday with a gusty north wind.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A lee surface trough is intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough late this afternoon. The upper level trough
will track across the plains tonight and Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool a few degrees behind this front Thursday
to slightly below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. This trough and associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday night for mention of a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New
Mexico and extreme west Texas west of the Pecos River.

By Saturday the upper level trough/low is expected to be across
Arizona and New Mexico. Large scale lift will increase significantly
by early in the day as heights fall in conjunction with an approaching
upper level speed max. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western sections Saturday morning and
slowly advance eastward Saturday afternoon and evening toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region as the upper system
approaches. Continued the mention of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms most areas Saturday and Saturday evening. At this
time do not think there will be significant severe weather
outbreak due to less than impressive instability with a retreating
surface high still in the picture with a broad upper trough. (no
well defined dryline). Moist southeasterly low level flow will
keep temperatures a little below normal as well.

The upper level system will weaken and pass by to the north
Sunday and allow a surface trough to move east toward the eastern
Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. Kept the slight
chance of thunderstorm going across the extreme eastern Basin
along and east of the surface trough with temperatures warming to
above normal values.

Next Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm behind this system
with an upper level ridge over the forecast area. This ridge
is forecast to move east later Tuesday and could set up
the Permian Basin for the possibility of dryline thunderstorms
next Wednesday with southwesterly flow aloft in place.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained will prevail in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.  Since RHs
around 5 percent will persist there, the Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect.  Indications are 20 foot winds will continue well
into the night over the Guadalupe Mountains, so will extend the RFW
until 17/09Z.

Warmer temperatures are prevailing along and west of the Pecos River
this afternoon, with temps a few degrees cooler over the Permian
Basin.  A tight surface pressure gradient is encompassing the
Permian Basin, hence 20 foot wind speeds are 15 to 20 mph sustained
in many locations there, but only 10 to 15 mph over the Upper Trans
Pecos and locations further west and southwest.  The gusty southerly
winds over the Permian Basin are beginning to bring in a little low
level moisture, which is keeping RH/s near 15 percent or higher,
with RHs of 5 to 10 percent further west.  A few locations in the
central and northern Permian Basin could reach critical levels, but
the duration is not expected to be long enough for a Red Flag
Warning.  20 foot winds will stay gusty through the evening over the
Permian Basin, but cooling temperatures and increasing moisture will
allow RHs to rise through the evening and night.  Recovery will be
poor along and west of a Maljamar to Big Bend line, with good or
better further east.

A cold front will move south into the area Thursday.  Minimum
afternoon RHs will generally stay above 15 percent over all but
Brewster and Presidio counties.  Although 20 foot wind speeds may
rise to around 20 mph sustained late Thursday afternoon and early
evening in these areas, the duration does not appear to be long
enough for critical fire weather conditions.  Fire weather concerns
will not be as great Friday and through the weekend as low level
moisture will spread over the region, and there will be a chance of
a wetting rain, especially Friday night through Saturday night.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05
305
FXUS64 KMAF 162351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with a few high clouds.  A gusty south
wind will continue through the evening as a surface low remains
over eastern NM.  A cold front will blow into the area late
tonight/early Thursday with a gusty north wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A lee surface trough is intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough late this afternoon. The upper level trough
will track across the plains tonight and Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool a few degrees behind this front Thursday
to slightly below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. This trough and associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday night for mention of a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New
Mexico and extreme west Texas west of the Pecos River.

By Saturday the upper level trough/low is expected to be across
Arizona and New Mexico. Large scale lift will increase significantly
by early in the day as heights fall in conjunction with an approaching
upper level speed max. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western sections Saturday morning and
slowly advance eastward Saturday afternoon and evening toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region as the upper system
approaches. Continued the mention of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms most areas Saturday and Saturday evening. At this
time do not think there will be significant severe weather
outbreak due to less than impressive instability with a retreating
surface high still in the picture with a broad upper trough. (no
well defined dryline). Moist southeasterly low level flow will
keep temperatures a little below normal as well.

The upper level system will weaken and pass by to the north
Sunday and allow a surface trough to move east toward the eastern
Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. Kept the slight
chance of thunderstorm going across the extreme eastern Basin
along and east of the surface trough with temperatures warming to
above normal values.

Next Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm behind this system
with an upper level ridge over the forecast area. This ridge
is forecast to move east later Tuesday and could set up
the Permian Basin for the possibility of dryline thunderstorms
next Wednesday with southwesterly flow aloft in place.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained will prevail in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.  Since RHs
around 5 percent will persist there, the Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect.  Indications are 20 foot winds will continue well
into the night over the Guadalupe Mountains, so will extend the RFW
until 17/09Z.

Warmer temperatures are prevailing along and west of the Pecos River
this afternoon, with temps a few degrees cooler over the Permian
Basin.  A tight surface pressure gradient is encompassing the
Permian Basin, hence 20 foot wind speeds are 15 to 20 mph sustained
in many locations there, but only 10 to 15 mph over the Upper Trans
Pecos and locations further west and southwest.  The gusty southerly
winds over the Permian Basin are beginning to bring in a little low
level moisture, which is keeping RH/s near 15 percent or higher,
with RHs of 5 to 10 percent further west.  A few locations in the
central and northern Permian Basin could reach critical levels, but
the duration is not expected to be long enough for a Red Flag
Warning.  20 foot winds will stay gusty through the evening over the
Permian Basin, but cooling temperatures and increasing moisture will
allow RHs to rise through the evening and night.  Recovery will be
poor along and west of a Maljamar to Big Bend line, with good or
better further east.

A cold front will move south into the area Thursday.  Minimum
afternoon RHs will generally stay above 15 percent over all but
Brewster and Presidio counties.  Although 20 foot wind speeds may
rise to around 20 mph sustained late Thursday afternoon and early
evening in these areas, the duration does not appear to be long
enough for critical fire weather conditions.  Fire weather concerns
will not be as great Friday and through the weekend as low level
moisture will spread over the region, and there will be a chance of
a wetting rain, especially Friday night through Saturday night.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
528
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southerly winds will affect all TAF sites through this
afternoon.  A low level jet will likely keep winds gusty through the
evening at all but Carlsbad and Pecos.  MVFR ceilings will develop
over central Texas overnight, but should stay east of all West Texas
TAF sites.  A cold front will move into the area Thursday morning,
but expect VFR conditions to prevail.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05/80

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