Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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584
FXUS64 KMAF 161043
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through early morning Thursday with
no significant weather expected. Winds will be south to southeast
across much of the area with winds approaching 20 knots and gusty
at times at MAF and FST. A surface low and cold front will move
southward through southeast New Mexico this evening bringing winds
initially to the west and southwest at CNM and PEQ. A cold front
will shift winds to the north shortly after 06Z at CNM and push as
far south as PEQ and MAF by 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05

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