Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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555
FXUS64 KMAF 200953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ in full swing tonight, w/~30kt return
flow right off the deck. Expect return flow to continue next 24
hours, except out west, where a westerly component is expected. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
4.5-6 kft agl. Convection will be possible west and south again
today, on the periphery of the upper ridge. For now, we`ll only
include it at KFST, w/MVFR visibilities due to heavy precip.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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