Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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544
FXUS64 KMAF 211623
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect portions of the area
early this afternoon with -TS near FST currently. This is the only
site with mention of TSRA through this afternoon but will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend if needed. VFR to MVFR cigs should
persist through this evening then flight conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR, if not lower. Otherwise, easterly winds will
prevail today with a few gusts through the evening hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing showers moving up from the southeast
into the Permian Basin this morning. This activity, though
continuing to spread northwest, should remain fairly weak and
isolated. The greatest rainfall potential for today will be in the
Big Bend where models are showing an upper disturbance moving out
of Mexico potentially producing heavy rainfall from Presidio to
Sanderson. This area has not seen much rain lately and can take
quite a bit of rain, but locally heavy downpours could still
create some flash flooding problems and this will be the greatest
weather threat for today.

Tomorrow a ridge builds over the west coast and northwesterly flow
over the Rockies will send another disturbance into the area.
Shear and instability will be enough to support severe
thunderstorms with large hail in discrete supercells, and also a
strong wind threat should the activity form an MCS. See more
details in the SWODY2 from SPC.

The trough will send a cold front into the CWA early Tuesday,
pushing the rain east but keeping below normal temps through
midweek. Things change Thursday when the ridge over the western
U.S. flattens and moves east with westerly flow bringing much
warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 90s to
100s with weaker flow Friday and Saturday only providing a couple
of degrees of relief.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  60  82  59 /  30  30  30  50
Carlsbad                       78  59  88  57 /  20  30  30  30
Dryden                         76  64  86  64 /  70  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  71  60  84  60 /  50  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  82  55 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                          76  57  79  54 /  20  30  30  50
Marfa                          74  54  84  54 /  50  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           76  60  81  58 /  40  30  30  50
Odessa                         76  60  82  58 /  40  30  30  50
Wink                           78  60  86  58 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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