Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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046
FXUS64 KMAF 211827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with light west winds
shifting from the northeast around 06Z behind a weak cold front.
Cannot rule out IFR/MVFR CIG & VIS behind the front but confidence
is not high enough to place in the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Yet another day record breaking day of high temperatures looks
to be on tap today for Midland International Air and Space Port.
Current record high temperature for Midland is 92 set in 1995.
Forecasts highs across the Permian Basin along I-20 are expected
to be in the mid 90s. There will be a chance for isolated
thunderstorms to form off the Davis Mountains late this afternoon,
but do not expect much impact from any storm that does develop. A
weak cold front will move southward Tuesday evening and stall
across the southern Permian Basin by Wednesday morning. Front will
bring some cooler temperatures for Wednesday, but not much in the
way of rain.

Focus will turn to Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves across
the western US and into the Four Corners region. Multiple hazards
will be in play during this time. The upper level winds will be
fairly strong associated with this system. Winds at 850mb will be
strong for most of Thursday as the low approaches and are likely
to increase by Thursday evening. Wind Advisory conditions will be
possible for portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico as winds mix down through late afternoon and into the early
evening. Strong southwest flow aloft may also cause some high
winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. As strong southerly winds
pick up in the afternoon, a dryline will set up along the TX/NM
border. Models indicate storms should form off the dryline and
move east through Thursday evening. CAPE values ranging from
500-1000 J/kg in combination with shear values of 50-60 kts and
steep lapse rates will be enough to support the potential for some
severe storms. The main threats with these storms will be hail
and damaging winds. West of the dryline will be very dry air and
windy conditions that will push eastward with the Pacific front
causing some fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday. See
Fire Weather Discussion below for more information.

Cooler air will reside behind the Pacific front for Friday as
windy conditions continue. Winds should calm down for one day on
Saturday before picking up again with the passing of weak trough
to our north on Sunday. The active weather pattern looks to continue
early next week as another potent trough deepens to our west and
moves east across the plains.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
Models continue coming into alignment on bringing an upper- lvl
trough thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. While
models are still in disagreement on timing of the trough, the
tracks are similar and portend windy conditions Thu afternoon
and/or Fri., again, dependent on timing. GFS forecast soundings
Thursday mix out to above H85 in the east, where SW 40kt flow is
forecast, and above H6 in the west, where SW 45-50kt is forecast.
The NAM soundings aren`t as pronounced, but more cloud cover is
advertised. Mixing isn`t as deep on Friday, but critical 20` winds
will still be very much in play. Despite lower anticipated highs
each day, critical RH will not be in question for most of the
region. Fire Danger is high and ERCs are above normal, and these
should climb between now and then. Attm, cloud cover (as usual) is
the variable up in the air. For now, we`ll bang this hard in the
HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  60  88  61 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       94  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  60  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  97  59  94  59 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  48  88  48 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           96  60  90  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  55  93  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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