Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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021
FXUS64 KMAF 141106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
MVFR cigs will persist across much of the Permian Basin terminals
with VFR conditions to the west. Northerly winds will increase and
become gusty later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will
diminish and VFR conditions should return areawide by this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough over northeast New Mexico at
08Z...a little further north than models placed it 24 hrs ago.  Area
radars show convection has cleared the eastern zones, w/radar
rainfall estimates of close to 2" in isolated areas east.

Trough is forecast to move thru north Texas today, ending up over SE
OK by 00Z Wednesday.  We`ve left in a chance of rain, mainly NE
zones, to catch any wraparound development, but this should taper
off fairly quickly by/after 18Z.  A quick look at sfc obs show most
of what is falling attm is -RA, w/maybe a few flurries in the
Guadalupes.  Forecast soundings of areas north of the FA, i.e.,
KROW, depict only rain.  Given the track of the core, we`ve kept
everything outside of the Guadalupes -RA.

Meridional flow will persist over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico as a secondary trough pinches off over nrn Sonora by 12Z Wed.
At the sfc, high pressure to the north will keep cool, northerly
flow over the area thru Thursday, retarding the usual warmup
somewhat.  Return flow resumes Thursday night as the sfc ridge
slides into central Texas, and temps should finally climb above-
normal by Friday.

Models are fairly in taking the secondary trough over Sonora south
forecast southeast Wednesday, then eject it thru West Texas
Thursday.  Brief ridging follows before a third upper trough makes
landfall at Baja and approaches the region Saturday night, for
increasing chances of convection Sunday/Sunday night as the trough
moves thru.  Otherwise, temps stay above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  35  57  35 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  33  58  32 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  42  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  37  58  36 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  34  50  35 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  32  56  32 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  30  53  27 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  35  56  34 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  35  57  35 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           54  34  60  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29

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