Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 130522 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the area along the cold
front but are not expected to impact any of the terminals.  The cold
front will continue to push through the area with gusty north
winds.  Haze and blowing dust reducing visibilities will be possible
as the front moves through the area otherwise VFR conditions are
expected.  Winds will remain gusty throughout the overnight period
and into Monday morning with another increase around 18z.  Winds
will gradually diminish throughout the afternoon and will be light
and variable by Monday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014/

DISCUSSION..
Severe tstm watch is in effect until 3 AM CDT for the NE CWFA.
Fast moving low topped supercells will be possible within
environment of CAPEs to 600 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 50kts.
Updates are out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014/

UPDATE...
Sent an update to expire the Wind Advisory for Eddy County and
remove wording from zones. A Wind Advisory for the Van Horn and the
Hwy 54 corridor as well as the higher elevations of the Davis and
Apache Mountains will be in effect through tonight. Wind speeds will
increase to 30-40mph with gusts up to 50mph across these areas. In
addition, a High Wind Warning continues for the Guadalupe Mountains
with winds currently blowing around 45mph sustained with gusts near
58mph. Both wind products (advisory and warning) will expire at 12Z
Monday morning as winds decrease below criteria. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region overnight with strong
north winds in its wake, particularly across southeast New Mexico
and Permian Basin regions. Otherwise, only made minor adjustments to
wind tonight and overnight lows.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT;
HOWEVER, ONLY HI-RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR I-10. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MUCH IN COVERAGE WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING THANKS TO
AFTERNOON HEATING BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW INCREASING SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND WHERE WIND ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AND SPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTH AND WINDS WILL CALM
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR PERHAPS THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A RETURN OF UPPER RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A WARM
END TO THE WEEK.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

99

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