Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 231018
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
518 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in direct
convection. KMAF VAD profiler shows a 45kt LLJ continuing over
the area this AM, w/plenty of high cloud moving thru a dirty
ridge over the area.  Sfc flow is forecast yo veer slightly to S
over the next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast to redevelop after
sunset Saturday night. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field by late morning most terminals, w/bases 4-7 kft agl. As an
upper trough moves thru the region today/tonight, could see some
convection develop over the Big Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos. This will
affect mainly KFST, although the latest HRRR and NAM suggest
convection may develop a little further north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging is over the region with an upper low over northern
Mexico that is moving northward.  This upper low will bring an
increase in moisture to the area and will allow for a chance of rain
and thunderstorms today across areas primarily south and west of the
Pecos River.  Despite an increase in moisture, temperatures will
likely be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with southerly
winds across the area.

On Sunday, the upper low will move east of the region resulting in
dryer conditions for the area.  A surface trough will develop with
west to southwest winds across the area on Sunday allowing for
temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of
the CWA.  Similar conditions as Sunday are expected on Monday.  An
upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Tuesday
with the base of the trough moving over the CWA.  A surface trough
will also be across the area on Tuesday.  The base of the upper
trough moving over the region will result in stronger winds aloft
mixing downward to the surface.  This will likely result in critical
fire weather conditions across western portions of the CWA as the
dryline remains to the east.  See the fire weather discussion below.
There will be a chance of thunderstorms across the Western Low
Rolling Plains southward to the Lower Trans Pecos Tuesday evening
into Tuesday night as the dryline moves slightly west. The upper
trough will move away from the region on Wednesday with drying
conditions until the next upper trough that is expected to
approach the area next Thursday/Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough moving thru NV, and is forecast
to eject into the upper Midwest by 00Z Monday.  This will be
followed by a Pac trough making landfall in the PacNW around 06Z
Monday, and quickly digging to the Four Corners by 18Z Tuesday. This
will result in critical fire wx conditions developing as soon as
Sunday across the Guadalupe Mtns/SE NM Plains, and evolving into a
widespread Red Flag day across much of the western fire districts
Tuesday as the Pac trough ejects to the north.  While current ERCs
over the Trans Pecos region are below-normal, current Fire Danger
over SE NM and adjacent West Texas is already High-to-Very High,
w/reports of plenty of cured (and tall) fuels west of KINK.  As both
upper-lvl troughs translate eastward into the CONUS,
associated leeside troughing on the Front Range will veer 20` winds
to a more westerly direction over the next few days and, combined
w/expected above-normal temps, will only increase Fire Danger and
maintain low RHs.  Sunday, as the first trough passes north,
forecast soundings at KGDP mix to around H65, where 25-30kt
westerlies are forecast.  These winds will extend some distance
south into West Texas, mainly Culberson, Reeves, and Jeff Davis
Counties.  However, throwing much of this into question will be any
convection that develops over the next 24 hours as the trough moves
east thru the region, especially south.  For brevity, we`ll issue a
Fire Wx Watch for the areas mentioned above for Sunday, and let
later shifts reassess.  Monday looks similar to Sunday, and roughly
the same area will likely be affected.  Tuesday looks to be the big
day as the secondary trough ejects just north of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  60  88  60 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       87  56  87  57 /  10  20   0   0
Dryden                         81  62  89  62 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  83  60  90  59 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  55  78  54 /  20  20   0   0
Hobbs                          83  56  84  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          76  47  81  47 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  62  89  59 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         83  62  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           86  61  92  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

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