Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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802
FXUS64 KMAF 301118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin but is becoming
stationary near MAF. Winds will be light and variable at MAF, HOB,
INK the next few hours then become westerly along with the other
TAF locations through the remainder of the day. This evening the
front will get a renewed push south shifting winds from the
northeast by 06Z. VFR conditions will remain through most of the
next 24 hours though there may be some MVFR CIGs developing near
MAF/HOB at the end of the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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