Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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998
FXUS64 KMAF 011509
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
We have opted to let dense fog advisory expire as the vsby in the area
surface obs are trending up, and have left fog in the forecast until
16Z. As frontal winds increase fog is dissipating quickly across the
n. Also made some adjustments to clouds based on visible imagery.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Recent rains have left quite a bit of moisture this morning
creating widespread dense fog. Normally southwest winds will keep
our skies clear but this morning is a rare exception and thus
forecast confidence is low on when improvement will occur. There
is a cold front in the TX Panhandle moving south that will bring a
northerly wind shift and combined with daytime heating should lift
CIG/VIS to at least MVFR 15-18Z. Eventually VFR conditions are
expected this afternoon but again confidence is low beyond the
first 6 hours.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  27  55  31  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  26  55  32  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                53  31  60  30  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  36  56  33  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  31  58  39  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  30  55  39  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   49  27  55  29  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  57  26  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  25  55  30  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  52  27  55  32  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    56  30  59  29  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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