Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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541
FXUS64 KMAF 210442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1032 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and variable tonight into tomorrow morning
before coming around to the south to southeast Friday afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings and visibilities around 12z
for MAF but do not have much confidence in this so took it out of
the TAF for now.  Low ceilings and visibilities will again be
possible areawide beginning around 03z Saturday as low-level
moisture increases.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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