Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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533
FXUS64 KMAF 161729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms for CNM and PEQ this afternoon and
into the overnight hours. Winds will mostly be elevated out of the
south with some gusts.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A decaying MCS currently over the Red River Valley has left a
trailing outflow boundary extending across the Western Low Rolling
Plains and into the North Central Permian Basin as of 330am.
Most convection along this boundary is focused east of the area,
as the boundary is more diffuse with westward extent. However, a
couple isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out this morning,
mainly across the northeastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains. There are also scattered showers across eastern
New Mexico, as well as a weakening small cluster of storms in the
Davis Mountains, which continue to move slowly southward around
the periphery of the upper high. These storms are expected to
gradually weaken, but have warranted mention of isolated
showers/thunderstorms across the west through this morning.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will continue to
slowly build northeastward today, with falling heights as well as
cooling 850mb temperatures expected to result in temperatures a
degree or two cooler today than yesterday. Highs today are
expected to range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees for most
of the area, with the hottest temperatures in the 103-108 degree
range through portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.
Thunderstorm chances this afternoon will be focused mainly across
higher terrain where a combination of orographic effects, strong
heating, and a theta-e axis are expected to facilitate isolated to
scattered storms by late this afternoon. Some storms may move off
of the mountains to the immediately adjacent plains this evening,
and while no severe weather is anticipated, the strongest storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

Not many changes have been made to the extended, as the upper
ridge is still progged to build into the Central Plains by early
next week. A shift to easterly flow will allow 850mb temperatures
to continue to slowly fall, thus resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures each day through midweek next week. Despite afternoon
highs remaining above normal, most locations will fall short of
the century mark by Monday, which should be a welcome change given
Midland has seen temperatures over 100 degrees for 13 of the last
14 days. Precipitation chances will also decrease, with only a
slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday across the higher terrain of
the Guadalupe Mountains, and mainly dry conditions thereafter.
Models indicate that the ridge axis will begin to shift to the
west late next week, and if this occurs, a slow warmup will be
possible to end next week, with temperatures climbing back to the
upper 90s/low 100s for much of the area. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  73  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 101  71 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                        101  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  72  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 94  70  94  70 /  30  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          94  63  93  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 100  73 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                        100  74  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                          104  75 102  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/

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