Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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974
FXUS64 KMAF 240446
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1038 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will generally be light out of the west to northwest for the
next 24 hours.  There is a very slight chance that there could be
low ceilings and visibilities briefly around 12z but the probability
is too low to put in the TAFS.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of the high Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and to allow the Wind Advisory to expire.

DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds were beginning to subside as late afternoon
temperatures cooled, and a cold front moves into the area with
lesser northerly winds behind it.  Winds were also decreasing in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as of 23/2330Z, although speeds were
still around 40 mph sustained with gusts around 55 mph.  Speeds
should trend down more in the mountains too within the next hour as
decoupling commences.  Will go ahead and allow the Wind Advisory to
expire at 24/00Z, but will also cancel the rest of the High Wind
Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains due to the expected
downtrend in wind speeds there.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CST Sunday...Sunny and breezy/windy
conditions continue across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Temperatures are quite mild...mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the Plains with 50s in the mountains. A dry cold front is
moving south out of the Panhandle.

Strong winds will continue thru the aftn in the Plains...therefore
have left the Wind Advisory as is. The High Wind Warnings for the
mountain locations will continue thru the evening hours...however
not very confident with this as the models decrease the winds thru
the evening hours as the sfc gradient relaxes.

A couple of dry cold fronts will keep temps below normal for the
beginning of the work week. Flat ridging...along with lee side sfc
troughing along the Front Range will bring low level southwest
downslope flow to the area starting on Wednesday. Temps will
warm to near normal Wednesday...with above normal temps from
Thanksgiving right thru next weekend. With this pattern no
precipitation is expected for the next week...at least.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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