Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
048
FXUS64 KMAF 120934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for flash flooding will continue today and tonight
across much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor. Warm advection above a weakening surface
front across the central Permian Basin will combine with upper
level disturbances and a secondary cold front to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin today. Weak steering flow
aloft and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches will enhance
the flash flood potential. The flash flood threat will extend
further south into the southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains this afternoon and tonight as the stronger
secondary cold front pushes into the very moist air mass
in those areas. Temperatures this afternoon will actually be
falling as the secondary cold front moves through.

More stratiform rain is expected tonight across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico behind the secondary front with warm advection
and upper level divergence continuing. Although rainfall intensity
is expected to be lower tonight due to increased stability,
saturated grounds from rainfall during the day today will will
leave areas in the watch area susceptible to additional flooding.

Below to much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
through next Monday as cool surface high pressure builds into the
region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances will
remain in the forecast across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as moisture feeds northward from Mexico and
the eastern Pacific due to tropical activity. A more aggressive
northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible and will need
to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of precipitation
chances these periods.

Beyond Monday another cold front and upper level trough will keep
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across
most areas next Tuesday and Wednesday with near to below normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  51  65  55  / 100  60  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  55  65  60  /  80  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  54  68  54  / 100  60  30   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  62  72  61  /  50  60  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  55  69  59  /  80  60  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  49  61  53  / 100  60  30  10
HOBBS NM                   67  50  64  54  / 100  60  20  10
MARFA TX                   77  54  65  52  /  70  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  53  66  58  / 100  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  70  52  67  57  / 100  60  20  10
WINK TX                    76  54  70  56  / 100  70  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.