Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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849
FXUS64 KMAF 170902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, an area of showers that developed over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and Edwards Plateau is slowly moving northward,
indicative of the westward progression of a shear axis and more
substantial moisture, which have been anchored over central and
eastern Texas the past few days. Moisture return will continue in
earnest today, with afternoon dewpoints in the middle 50s to
middle 60s across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures today are expected to be a degree or two cooler than
yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s over higher
terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Given the increased
moisture and lift over eastern portions of the forecast area,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop by this afternoon,
particularly across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos southwestward into the Big Bend Area. Precipitable water
values in the aforementioned area will increase to around 1.5
inches this afternoon/evening, thus the main threat with storms
that develop will be locally heavy rainfall which could lead to
localized flash flooding.

As the shear axis continues to edge westward tonight and Thursday,
precipitation chances will continue to increase from east to
west, with the best chance for thunderstorms on Thursday roughly
along/east of a line extending from Hobbs southwestward through
Red Bluff and Van Horn. Continued moisture return will further
increase precipitable water values, which by Thursday afternoon
will range from around 1.0 inch west to nearly 2.0 inches across
southeastern zones, around 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above
normal per GEFS and NAEFS anomalies. Heavy rainfall will continue
to be the primary threat with storms that develop. The expected
precipitation and cloudcover is expected to keep temperatures down
on Thursday, with highs expected to be up to 10 degrees below
normal in some locations.

A warmup is expected Friday and Saturday, as well as a lull in
precipitation for much of the area, as temperatures rebound closer
to normal and rain chances focus over southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. However, a strong trough (for this
time of year) will develop over the Northern Plains early this
weekend, and will push a cold front through the forecast area in
the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. Given the moisture that will
remain in place, expect widespread precipitation chances to return
with the passage of the front, and linger into the early part of
next week. Temperatures will also be much cooler behind the front,
with highs expected to drop back into the 80s for most of the area
on Sunday, with cooler weather looking to stick around through
midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  69  85  71 /  20  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       91  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         89  74  88  72 /  40  50  50  30
Fort Stockton                  87  67  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  63  87  64 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                          82  58  81  57 /  20  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  68  85  69 /  20  30  40  20
Odessa                         90  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           92  70  89  68 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/84

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