Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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574
FXUS64 KMAF 011055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the west to southwest with some elevated winds this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The amplification/expansion of the 85h thermal ridge will largely
modulate the increasing temperature trend thru Thur. Weakish wly mid
level flow today will serve to induce pressure falls of 4-8mb/12hrs
to result in a broad lee trof with surface winds sw-w by late
afternoon. Said thermal ridge will be displaced farther e Thur and
increases from 21-24C Wed to 22-25C Thur. Recently high temps have
been approximately 10-12F above 85h temps, however that`s been
without downslope winds. As such L80-U80s today will increase to
M80s-L90s Thur. Mid level wind fields strengthen considerably by
Thur with sw-w 15-20 mph increasing to 20-30 mph and gusty Thur PM.
Mean mixed layer winds of 30-35kts across the GDP Mtns suggest high
winds will be possible and will opt to issue a high wind watch for
Thur. Friday`s cold front does look to be a little slower than
indicated on last nights runs with a stronger push in the n-ne too.
Still a slower fropa would mean be a windier day Fri, especially n-e
CWFA. Temps will be tricky, but noticeably cooler N of I-20,
along and w of the mtns only a few degrees cooler. Dry air, winds
less than 10 mph, and mostly clear skies will make for a cool
morning Sat, especially across the PB as farther w the winds may
stay up. GFS still wants to develop light precip Sat PM across the
mtns in renewed upslope flow and 7h-5h lapse rate of 6.5-7 c/km.
Temps will cool further Sat PM with highs well below normal. A
warming trend will develop and build Sun-Tue as 5h sw flow increases
from 40-45kt Easter Sunday to 55-60kt Mon/Tue. This will reflect
as winder/drier conditions at the surface, especially across the
wrn half of the CWFA. A modest dryline will have a chance to develop
across the far ern CWFA and Lower Trans Pecos in the afternoons on
Sun-Tue and isold dryline storms will be possible. As a mid level
trof passes Tue a cold front will follow in its wake, which may
increase the chance of storms across the n-ne Wed PM.

FIRE WEATHER...
April is the climatological maximum for RF conditions and on que
the pattern is setting up to favor Red Flag weather Thur, Sun,
Mon, and Tue for parts of the area. Today warmer/dry wx will prep
the fine fuels for a more widespread fire wx concern Thur. The
general consensus is that the strongest 85h-7h winds will come out
from SE-E NM into the S Plains with single digit RHs possible
in/near that area too. A Fire Wx Watch has already been issued for
SE NM/NW PB/Upper Trans Pecos/GDP-Delaware Mtns. Fuel intel from
BLM in SE NM indicate grass fuels are still cured enough for RF
wx to carry fire and grasses in mtns are still cured. NFDRS will
likely indicate high to very fire danger Thur which points to the
fine fuels suggesting potential for Initial Attack type
fires/response will increase. Exceptions could be in the mtns
including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may be higher grass
loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns will be renewed
Sun-Tue. Mon/Tue look most interesting at this point as fuels will
have had 2-3 days of drying, potentially accelerated drying as
model dwpnt are forecast to be 0-15F from SE-NM/GDP-Delaware Mtns
into the N-W PB/S Plains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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