Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 091152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
652 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



A transient MVFR deck continues to affect area TAF sites this
morning, with improvement to VFR expected by 14-16Z. Precipitation
should redevelop this afternoon, thus have included mention of
-SHRA at all TAF sites, though coverage/timing of thunderstorms
precludes mention of TS at this time. Intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible through this evening if heavy rain affects
the terminals, with VFR prevailing otherwise, though there is
potential for low ceilings to develop late in the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CDT Friday...Water Vapor imagery and
GOES High Density Winds shows the upper low spinning in the
Central Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez.

Radar imagery is indc most of the convection this morning east of
the CWA in the area of best diffluence aloft. The upper low will
continue to retrograde across central Baja California and into the
Pacific today and tonight. Weak impulses riding over the CWA in the
southwest flow aloft along with upper level diffluence will
continue the threat of showers/thunderstorms today into tonight.
Even though there could be locally heavy rainfall there is a
diminished threat of widespread flash flooding. Therefore...the
Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. Saturday will be warmer with
a few thunderstorms over the Davis Mtns in the moist low level
upslope the upper low meanders west of Baja California.

Dry weather returns to West Texas/Southeast New Mexico Sunday as
ridging builds from West Texas northwest into the Central
Rockies. Dry weather is expected all next week with the ridge
overhead. Temps will be above normal starting Sunday thru the
upcoming week. Have gone below MOS on Sunday with all the recent
rain. A dry backdoor cold front will clip the area on Monday
cooling temps several degrees...but still above normal. Temps by
the middle/end of next week will be 5-10 degrees above normal.

Looking further out the ECMWF takes the upper low and brings it
into Southern CA...and then opens it up to a shortwave that moves
across the Southern Rockies the following weekend. The ECMWF
brings shower chances back to the area at that time. The
operational run of the GFS keeps the ridge over the area...but the
ensembles are mixed not favoring any particular solution.






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