Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 271949
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  77  40  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              42  79  43  56  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  76  38  56  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  49  79  47  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  80  45  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  67  41  49  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   37  75  39  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  74  37  62  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  78  41  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  77  41  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    38  79  40  58  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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