Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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300
FXUS64 KMAF 012301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail. Southwesterly winds will stay elevated
overnight, but will really pick up Thursday afternoon as a sfc low
develops in the plains. Winds may gust in excess of 30 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern looks to have primarily high pressure aloft over the
region with zonal flow across the area.  this will result in mainly
warm and dry wx.  An upper trough will swing across the Rockies late
Thursday into Friday but will stay well north of the area.  However
it will push a cold front southward.  After that ridging returns.

On Thursday a deep surface low will move down out of CO across NM
and into the TX panhandle.  This will produce a brisk west wind
across the area.  Will leave the High Wind Watch in effect Thursday
for the Guadalupe Mountains as it appears the wind will be close
to reaching needed criteria but not confident enough to upgrade
it.  The west/downslope wind Thursday will result in a return to
much warmer temperatures with readings climbing into the 90s.
Normal highs for this time of year are the mid 70s.  A cold front
will blow into the area Friday pushing south of the Pecos River by
midday and into Mexico by evening.  The front looks to be accompanied
by a tight pressure gradient so fropa should be fairly windy.  Cold
air advection Friday with the north wind will keep highs in the 60s
north to 80s along the Rio Grande.  Temperatures will be much cooler
areawide Saturday with highs generally in the 60s.  Readings quickly
recover Sunday into next week.

The next few days look to be dry but low chances of rain/storms
creep back into the forecast by the weekend and continue into early
next week.  Best chance of rain looks to be over the eastern CWA.
Without a strong upper trough threatening the area not excited about
rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER...
Little changes to the fire wx forecast.  WV imagery shows an
upper-lvl trough making landfall on the PacNW coast this afternoon,
and forecast to dive to the 4 Corners area by late Thursday
afternoon.  Abundant daytime heating over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico will result in unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures
climbing to the 80s and low 90s, even warmer than forecast
yesterday.  This will yielding minimum RH`s of 5-10 percent.
Forecast soundings mix to above 700mb, where 25-35 mph WSW flow is
forecast to round the base of the upper trough.  This may result in
critical fire weather conditions for much of the day Thursday, as
well as Thursday evening.  Area of concern remains much the same as
24 hrs ago, although models have backed off a bit on winds in the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  Still, we`re reluctant to remove this from
the watch, as forecast RFTI`s there still remain high, and high fire
danger is spreading east w/today`s curing/drying.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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