Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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411
FXUS64 KMAF 260507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1106 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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272
FXUS64 KMAF 252321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals with light/variable winds and mostly clear
skies in place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 252034
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 34  69  37  70  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  71  38  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  64  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  70  42  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  69  41  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  62  41  61  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   32  68  36  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  65  37  65  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  69  37  71  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  69  38  71  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  68  35  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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608
FXUS64 KMAF 251728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue with northerly winds diminishing
through the day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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369
FXUS64 KMAF 251057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
continue shifting to the north this morning then to the northeast
this afternoon as a cold front comes through the area. Winds will
become light and variable this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer wx comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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073
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer ex comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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299
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer wx comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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279
FXUS64 KMAF 250514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light westerly winds will begin to
veer to the north through the morning as a cold front moves through
the region.  Significant wind speeds are not expected behind the
front.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 242323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light westerly winds continue through
midnight then veer to the north as a cold front enters the region
early Sunday. Wind speeds will generally remain around 10kt for much
of the morning then decrease Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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386
FXUS64 KMAF 242051
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  59  31  67  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  56  29  64  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  63  36  68  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  59  34  69  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  52  33  61  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   30  56  30  65  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   27  56  27  63  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  60  32  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  34  60  32  67  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  61  30  68  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 241716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1116 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail with light northwest winds and a few
high clouds.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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830
FXUS64 KMAF 241031
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc winds will
generally back slightly, and a few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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751
FXUS64 KMAF 241019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  29  62  34  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  32  64  35  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  27  61  29  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  35  67  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  33  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  34  56  37  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  26  61  30  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   53  21  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  31  65  35  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  31  63  35  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    56  29  64  33  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80

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973
FXUS64 KMAF 240523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals with light NW winds and mostly clear skies
in place.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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112
FXUS64 KMAF 232316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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800
FXUS64 KMAF 232048
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 26  54  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              27  56  31  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                24  54  28  60  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  27  60  34  68  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           27  56  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          25  51  31  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   23  53  28  61  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   19  53  27  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    26  55  30  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  26  55  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  57  29  64  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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128
FXUS64 KMAF 231705
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Winds will be west
to northwest at generally 5 to 10 knots.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to expire the Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Permian
Basin. Tweaked high temperatures downward a few degrees due to
snow cover. Tweaked pop and sky grids.

updated products to be sent shortly.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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371
FXUS64 KMAF 231527 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
927 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to expire the Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Permian
Basin. Tweaked high temperatures downward a few degrees due to
snow cover. Tweaked pop and sky grids.

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  27  53  30  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  23  52  26  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  28  47  33  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   38  21  51  25  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   42  15  51  24  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    40  27  54  31  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  27  54  31  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    44  27  56  30  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 231210
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Martin...Midland...Pecos.


&&

$$

99

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666
FXUS64 KMAF 231140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  27  53  30  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  23  52  26  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  30   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  28  47  33  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  21  51  25  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  15  51  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    47  27  56  30  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Martin...Midland...Pecos.


&&

$$

99/99

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581
FXUS64 KMAF 231016
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  27  53  30  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  23  52  26  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  30   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  28  47  33  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  21  51  25  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  15  51  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    47  27  56  30  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...
     Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/80

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931
FXUS64 KMAF 230526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through Friday morning. Generally have IFR/LIFR
cigs and vis at most sites tonight however some locations are
showing a brief improvement to MVFR for the time being. This should
be short-lived as new model runs show conditions getting much worse
with fog/LIFR vis developing in the next few hours. Currently have
-SN reported at all terminals at 05Z but periods of moderate snow
may result in lower vis than what is forecasted. Conditions expected
to improve by mid morning Friday with precip ending from NW to SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals overnight. Currently have IFR/LIFR cigs and vis
across the board this evening with mainly -SN reported at all
but PEQ, where -RA will likely change to -SN tonight. Expect this to
continue overnight into the early morning hours Friday. Snow should
remain light most of the time however periods of moderate/heavy snow
may occur, lowering visibilities beyond what is forecasted.
Conditions expected to improve by mid morning Friday with precip
ending from NW to SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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245
FXUS64 KMAF 222348
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals overnight. Currently have IFR/LIFR cigs and vis
across the board this evening with mainly -SN reported at all
but PEQ, where -RA will likely change to -SN tonight. Expect this to
continue overnight into the early morning hours Friday. Snow should
remain light most of the time however periods of moderate/heavy snow
may occur, lowering visibilities beyond what is forecasted.
Conditions expected to improve by mid morning Friday with precip
ending from NW to SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 222110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 26  44  27  52  /  80  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              30  45  28  54  /  90  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                19  43  22  54  /  80  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  51  29  59  /  90  30   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           29  45  29  53  /  90  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          20  38  28  46  /  70  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   19  42  21  53  /  70  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  44  15  51  /  90  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  45  26  55  /  90  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  29  45  25  54  /  90  20   0   0
WINK TX                    28  47  26  54  /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10/84

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379
FXUS64 KMAF 221729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Snow will continue all TAF sites through at least the next 12
hours with CIG/VIS bouncing between MVFR/LIFR, depending on the
intensity of the snow. Conditions will begin to improve after 06Z
and VFR is expected between 12Z-18Z Friday.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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055
FXUS64 KMAF 221128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of RA/SN/BR being reported across the area including TAF sites.
No real improvement is expected today and in fact they will be
worse at least temporarily and have used TEMPO groups frequently to
reflect deteriorating wx thru the forecast. Prevailing SN later
today and tonight may result in snow packed runways.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Reagan...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

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685
FXUS64 KMAF 221058
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  22  43  26  /  80  80  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              33  26  44  27  /  70  90  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                33  20  44  24  /  90  50  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  35  51  31  /  40  80  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  26  45  29  /  50  90  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  19  38  28  /  90  50  10   0
HOBBS NM                   31  19  41  22  /  90  60  10   0
MARFA TX                   33  19  44  17  /  50  80  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  25  44  27  /  60  90  10   0
ODESSA TX                  32  25  44  27  /  60  90  10   0
WINK TX                    35  26  47  26  /  70  90  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Reagan...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

49/80

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006
FXUS64 KMAF 220534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1134 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have a rain/snow mix currently moving across the area... this should
change over to snow overnight and continue through much of Thursday
and fog should increase. There may be some brief improvements
tonight especially after precip moves through, but conditions
should tend toward IFR/LIFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Will start out with MVFR conditions for most area TAF locations but
will fall to IFR/LIFR overnight as cigs lower. Expect vsbys to
fall also to around a mile as fog develops. Radar currently shows
light rain showers generally north of the Pecos River and this
will change over to snow tonight and may continue through much of
the day tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The main focus this forecast period continues to be a potent
winter storm which will impact the region beginning late tonight
through Friday morning. Per latest water vapor imagery, Pacific
moisture continues to advect across the region, the first
indication of which was an area of showers and embedded weak
thunderstorms that developed over the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
Area late this morning. The aforementioned precipitation is
currently exiting the area to the east, though additional rainfall
will develop this evening and tonight. The trough responsible for
the upcoming winter storm continues to dig southward along the
border of Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon, and is expected
to continue to dig across southern New Mexico and into West Texas
over the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in great
agreement, and in line with the GEFS and SREF mean, maintain a
slower eastward motion, as well as further deepening of the trough
and development of a closed low before the system arrives in West
Texas. While the precipitation associated with this storm is
expected to begin as rain, a transition to a mix of rain and snow
will first occur across southeastern New Mexico, the northern
Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains by around midnight tonight. Continued cold
advection could edge the rain/snow transition further south
tonight, with the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and
northwestern Permian Basin expected to transition to all snow by
Thursday morning.

Temperatures across much of the area will warm into the middle 30s
Thursday, serving to transition some locations back to a rain/snow
mix or all rain prior to Thursday night. While the bulk of the
accumulating snow will be across the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico on Thursday, by Thursday night, strong cold
advection will be enough to transition all precipitation to snow,
with the exception of Terrell county, where temperatures are
expected to remain just above freezing for the duration of the
event.  Thursday night still looks to be when the bulk of the snow
will occur across the area, with the exception of southeast New
Mexico, which will experience substantial snowfall during the day on
Thursday. As the low continues to dig south across the Big Bend Area
overnight Thursday, strong lift through a heavily saturated
dendritic growth zone will occur, supported by the passing low as
well as as the accompanying entrance region of the upper level jet
and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the trough
overnight Thursday.  One feature of note: Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the potential development of a deformation zone after
midnight Thursday, extending from the Marfa Plateau northeastward
across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  If this occurs, current
forecast snowfall amounts of a widespread 2 to 4 inches, as well as
5 to 7 inches across higher terrain may be a bit low under the
modeled deformation zone.  For now, will wait and see how this pans
out and if the same trend is reflected in future model guidance.
Highest snowfall amounts, possibly in excess of 8 inches, are most
likely across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as well as northern
Lea and Eddy counties in New Mexico. Climatologically, antecedent
conditions continue to indicate that this will be a significant
heavy snow event for eastern/southeast New Mexico and West Texas, so
all are encouraged to be prepared for wintry weather beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning.  The Winter Storm Watch
has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory, please refer to the appropriate products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the precipitation
moves out of the area, though with clear skies Friday night and
potential snow cover, have trended toward cooler guidance for this
time frame.  Depending on areal coverage of the snow cover, lows may
need to be further adjusted, but feel that lows Friday night in the
teens to mid 20s are sufficient for now.  The warming trend will
continue through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal
by Monday and Tuesday as ridging develops over the region, with no
precipitation currently anticipated beyond the departing winter
storm on Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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654
FXUS64 KMAF 212347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Will start out with MVFR conditions for most area TAF locations but
will fall to IFR/LIFR overnight as cigs lower. Expect vsbys to
fall also to around a mile as fog develops. Radar currently shows
light rain showers generally north of the Pecos River and this
will change over to snow tonight and may continue through much of
the day tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The main focus this forecast period continues to be a potent
winter storm which will impact the region beginning late tonight
through Friday morning. Per latest water vapor imagery, Pacific
moisture continues to advect across the region, the first
indication of which was an area of showers and embedded weak
thunderstorms that developed over the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
Area late this morning. The aforementioned precipitation is
currently exiting the area to the east, though additional rainfall
will develop this evening and tonight. The trough responsible for
the upcoming winter storm continues to dig southward along the
border of Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon, and is expected
to continue to dig across southern New Mexico and into West Texas
over the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in great
agreement, and in line with the GEFS and SREF mean, maintain a
slower eastward motion, as well as further deepening of the trough
and development of a closed low before the system arrives in West
Texas. While the precipitation associated with this storm is
expected to begin as rain, a transition to a mix of rain and snow
will first occur across southeastern New Mexico, the northern
Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains by around midnight tonight. Continued cold
advection could edge the rain/snow transition further south
tonight, with the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and
northwestern Permian Basin expected to transition to all snow by
Thursday morning.

Temperatures across much of the area will warm into the middle 30s
Thursday, serving to transition some locations back to a rain/snow
mix or all rain prior to Thursday night. While the bulk of the
accumulating snow will be across the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico on Thursday, by Thursday night, strong cold
advection will be enough to transition all precipitation to snow,
with the exception of Terrell county, where temperatures are
expected to remain just above freezing for the duration of the
event.  Thursday night still looks to be when the bulk of the snow
will occur across the area, with the exception of southeast New
Mexico, which will experience substantial snowfall during the day on
Thursday. As the low continues to dig south across the Big Bend Area
overnight Thursday, strong lift through a heavily saturated
dendritic growth zone will occur, supported by the passing low as
well as as the accompanying entrance region of the upper level jet
and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the trough
overnight Thursday.  One feature of note: Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the potential development of a deformation zone after
midnight Thursday, extending from the Marfa Plateau northeastward
across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  If this occurs, current
forecast snowfall amounts of a widespread 2 to 4 inches, as well as
5 to 7 inches across higher terrain may be a bit low under the
modeled deformation zone.  For now, will wait and see how this pans
out and if the same trend is reflected in future model guidance.
Highest snowfall amounts, possibly in excess of 8 inches, are most
likely across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as well as northern
Lea and Eddy counties in New Mexico. Climatologically, antecedent
conditions continue to indicate that this will be a significant
heavy snow event for eastern/southeast New Mexico and West Texas, so
all are encouraged to be prepared for wintry weather beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning.  The Winter Storm Watch
has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory, please refer to the appropriate products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the precipitation
moves out of the area, though with clear skies Friday night and
potential snow cover, have trended toward cooler guidance for this
time frame.  Depending on areal coverage of the snow cover, lows may
need to be further adjusted, but feel that lows Friday night in the
teens to mid 20s are sufficient for now.  The warming trend will
continue through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal
by Monday and Tuesday as ridging develops over the region, with no
precipitation currently anticipated beyond the departing winter
storm on Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...
     Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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603
FXUS64 KMAF 212128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
328 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The main focus this forecast period continues to be a potent
winter storm which will impact the region beginning late tonight
through Friday morning. Per latest water vapor imagery, Pacific
moisture continues to advect across the region, the first
indication of which was an area of showers and embedded weak
thunderstorms that developed over the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
Area late this morning. The aforementioned precipitation is
currently exiting the area to the east, though additional rainfall
will develop this evening and tonight. The trough responsible for
the upcoming winter storm continues to dig southward along the
border of Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon, and is expected
to continue to dig across southern New Mexico and into West Texas
over the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in great
agreement, and in line with the GEFS and SREF mean, maintain a
slower eastward motion, as well as further deepening of the trough
and development of a closed low before the system arrives in West
Texas. While the precipitation associated with this storm is
expected to begin as rain, a transition to a mix of rain and snow
will first occur across southeastern New Mexico, the northern
Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains by around midnight tonight. Continued cold
advection could edge the rain/snow transition further south
tonight, with the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and
northwestern Permian Basin expected to transition to all snow by
Thursday morning.

Temperatures across much of the area will warm into the middle 30s
Thursday, serving to transition some locations back to a rain/snow
mix or all rain prior to Thursday night. While the bulk of the
accumulating snow will be across the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico on Thursday, by Thursday night, strong cold
advection will be enough to transition all precipitation to snow,
with the exception of Terrell county, where temperatures are
expected to remain just above freezing for the duration of the
event.  Thursday night still looks to be when the bulk of the snow
will occur across the area, with the exception of southeast New
Mexico, which will experience substantial snowfall during the day on
Thursday. As the low continues to dig south across the Big Bend Area
overnight Thursday, strong lift through a heavily saturated
dendritic growth zone will occur, supported by the passing low as
well as as the accompanying entrance region of the upper level jet
and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the trough
overnight Thursday.  One feature of note: Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the potential development of a deformation zone after
midnight Thursday, extending from the Marfa Plateau northeastward
across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  If this occurs, current
forecast snowfall amounts of a widespread 2 to 4 inches, as well as
5 to 7 inches across higher terrain may be a bit low under the
modeled deformation zone.  For now, will wait and see how this pans
out and if the same trend is reflected in future model guidance.
Highest snowfall amounts, possibly in excess of 8 inches, are most
likely across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as well as northern
Lea and Eddy counties in New Mexico. Climatologically, antecedent
conditions continue to indicate that this will be a significant
heavy snow event for eastern/southeast New Mexico and West Texas, so
all are encouraged to be prepared for wintry weather beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning.  The Winter Storm Watch
has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory, please refer to the appropriate products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the precipitation
moves out of the area, though with clear skies Friday night and
potential snow cover, have trended toward cooler guidance for this
time frame.  Depending on areal coverage of the snow cover, lows may
need to be further adjusted, but feel that lows Friday night in the
teens to mid 20s are sufficient for now.  The warming trend will
continue through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal
by Monday and Tuesday as ridging develops over the region, with no
precipitation currently anticipated beyond the departing winter
storm on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  32  22  43  /  70  70  80  20
BIG SPRING TX              33  34  26  45  /  80  70  90  20
CARLSBAD NM                33  33  21  47  /  50  90  60  10
DRYDEN TX                  43  49  35  51  /  50  40  80  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  35  24  48  /  50  50  90  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  31  19  39  /  40  90  60  10
HOBBS NM                   28  31  19  43  /  70  90  70  10
MARFA TX                   31  37  17  45  /  30  50  80  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  34  24  43  /  60  60  90  20
ODESSA TX                  32  34  24  43  /  60  60  90  20
WINK TX                    35  36  25  46  /  50  70  90  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...
     Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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530
FXUS64 KMAF 211651
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show a wide swath of convection has developed over the
Stockton Plateau, courtesy of a shortwave ahead of the upper
trough currently over central AZ. This should taper off for a
brief VFR window over the srn terminals this afternoon/evening,
before precip redevelops overnight as the upper trough nears. This
will coincide w/a cold front moving in late tonight. Forecast
soundings suggest precip will begin as RA, but then quickly
transition to SN around 12Z Thursday as the column saturates.
Buffer soundings suggest deteriorating cigs/vsbys overnight, to
LIFR most terminals as early as 06Z. Once precip transitions to
SN, visbys should drop considerably.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor shows a well defined shrtwv trof in AZ along with good
model depiction of a 4h speed max coincident with the noted subsidence
(steep LR/s) across nrn Baja. These features will be the impetus
for the development of scattered SHRA/TSRA this PM. Initial development
will be across Trans Pecos around 18Z. Based on said defined speed max
and broad lift in the 7h-5h omega field we will opt to increase PoPs
across the Lower Trans Pecos between 18Z-24Z today. Into Wed night/early
Thur AM mid level flow will begin to reflect a stronger/cold upper low
that develops across the central Rocky Mtns while dropping s thru wrn
NM. Current fcst has much of the area covered by likely PoPs Wed night.
This may be a little aggressive on the swd and wwd extent, thus we will
make some of the PoP gradients a little tighter. By 12Z Thur there is
good agreement in models that precip will have made a transition to
SN across the nrn parts of SE NM and as the column cools with 546
dam 1000-500mb thickness along I-20 and 540 dam thru SE NM/NW PB,
per cooler ECMWF. There is better agreement in 5h soln of the ECMWF
as it now shows a closed 5h contour around the low at 12Z Thur with
NAM still the outlier/weaker soln. Low level cold advection will occur
thru the day with 85h temps of -2C near I-20 by 18Z and 540 thickness
near I-20 around 18Z. This data is colder sooner than the runs of last
night and therefore with the transition to SN earlier the amounts
may be a little higher. Seems like a slam dunk that it will snow with
the tougher question being how much? Referring back to past cases per
CIPS analog data the 2nd highest similarity goes to the 12/11/98 event
which at the time resulted in a daily record snowfall here at MAF of
9.8". In that case the upper low was farther s and the PWs probably
a little higher, on the other hand this event the column is colder and
there is a strong signal in the cross section showing persistent lift
in the dendritic growth region. Even though grids already have 2-6"
of snow we will nudge amounts up a little more, especially across the
Upper Trans Pecos and GDP/Davis Mtns. The watch looks pretty good, but
will opt to include the rest of Brewster Co and Marfa Plateau. The window
for heaviest snow looks to be from 18Z Thur - 06Z Fri in the western
half and 03Z-12Z Fri in the eastern half, although significant snows
will likely have already occurred in nrn parts of SE NM Thur AM. There
is good agreement that the system will move out e fairly quickly Fri
with slowly moderating temps gaining momentum early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through late Thursday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Thursday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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797
FXUS64 KMAF 211132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the northeast to east and will be elevated with
possible gusts after 06z Thursday.  Low ceilings will begin moving
over the area this morning with a chance of rain for the area this
afternoon.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for MAF and
FST this afternoon.  Ceilings are expected to decrease further after
00z with visibilities decreasing as well.  Rain chances will continue
into the evening with a chance of snow after 06z for CNM, HOB, and
MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor shows a well defined shrtwv trof in AZ along with good
model depiction of a 4h speed max coincident with the noted subsidence
(steep LR/s) across nrn Baja. These features will be the impetus
for the development of scattered SHRA/TSRA this PM. Initial development
will be across Trans Pecos around 18Z. Based on said defined speed max
and broad lift in the 7h-5h omega field we will opt to increase PoPs
across the Lower Trans Pecos between 18Z-24Z today. Into Wed night/early
Thur AM mid level flow will begin to reflect a stronger/cold upper low
that develops across the central Rocky Mtns while dropping s thru wrn
NM. Current fcst has much of the area covered by likely PoPs Wed night.
This may be a little aggressive on the swd and wwd extent, thus we will
make some of the PoP gradients a little tighter. By 12Z Thur there is
good agreement in models that precip will have made a transition to
SN across the nrn parts of SE NM and as the column cools with 546
dam 1000-500mb thickness along I-20 and 540 dam thru SE NM/NW PB,
per cooler ECMWF. There is better agreement in 5h soln of the ECMWF
as it now shows a closed 5h contour around the low at 12Z Thur with
NAM still the outlier/weaker soln. Low level cold advection will occur
thru the day with 85h temps of -2C near I-20 by 18Z and 540 thickness
near I-20 around 18Z. This data is colder sooner than the runs of last
night and therefore with the transition to SN earlier the amounts
may be a little higher. Seems like a slam dunk that it will snow with
the tougher question being how much? Referring back to past cases per
CIPS analog data the 2nd highest similarity goes to the 12/11/98 event
which at the time resulted in a daily record snowfall here at MAF of
9.8". In that case the upper low was farther s and the PWs probably
a little higher, on the other hand this event the column is colder and
there is a strong signal in the cross section showing persistent lift
in the dendritic growth region. Even though grids already have 2-6"
of snow we will nudge amounts up a little more, especially across the
Upper Trans Pecos and GDP/Davis Mtns. The watch looks pretty good, but
will opt to include the rest of Brewster Co and Marfa Plateau. The window
for heaviest snow looks to be from 18Z Thur - 06Z Fri in the western
half and 03Z-12Z Fri in the eastern half, although significant snows
will likely have already occurred in nrn parts of SE NM Thur AM. There
is good agreement that the system will move out e fairly quickly Fri
with slowly moderating temps gaining momentum early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through late Thursday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Thursday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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050
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor shows a well defined shrtwv trof in AZ along with good
model depiction of a 4h speed max coincident with the noted subsidence
(steep LR/s) across nrn Baja. These features will be the impetus
for the development of scattered SHRA/TSRA this PM. Initial development
will be across Trans Pecos around 18Z. Based on said defined speed max
and broad lift in the 7h-5h omega field we will opt to increase PoPs
across the Lower Trans Pecos between 18Z-24Z today. Into Wed night/early
Thur AM mid level flow will begin to reflect a stronger/cold upper low
that develops across the central Rocky Mtns while dropping s thru wrn
NM. Current fcst has much of the area covered by likely PoPs Wed night.
This may be a little aggressive on the swd and wwd extent, thus we will
make some of the PoP gradients a little tighter. By 12Z Thur there is
good agreement in models that precip will have made a transition to
SN across the nrn parts of SE NM and as the column cools with 546
dam 1000-500mb thickness along I-20 and 540 dam thru SE NM/NW PB,
per cooler ECMWF. There is better agreement in 5h soln of the ECMWF
as it now shows a closed 5h contour around the low at 12Z Thur with
NAM still the outlier/weaker soln. Low level cold advection will occur
thru the day with 85h temps of -2C near I-20 by 18Z and 540 thickness
near I-20 around 18Z. This data is colder sooner than the runs of last
night and therefore with the transition to SN earlier the amounts
may be a little higher. Seems like a slam dunk that it will snow with
the tougher question being how much? Referring back to past cases per
CIPS analog data the 2nd highest similarity goes to the 12/11/98 event
which at the time resulted in a daily record snowfall here at MAF of
9.8". In that case the upper low was farther s and the PWs probably
a little higher, on the other hand this event the column is colder and
there is a strong signal in the cross section showing persistent lift
in the dendritic growth region. Even though grids already have 2-6"
of snow we will nudge amounts up a little more, especially across the
Upper Trans Pecos and GDP/Davis Mtns. The watch looks pretty good, but
will opt to include the rest of Brewster Co and Marfa Plateau. The window
for heaviest snow looks to be from 18Z Thur - 06Z Fri in the western
half and 03Z-12Z Fri in the eastern half, although significant snows
will likely have already occurred in nrn parts of SE NM Thur AM. There
is good agreement that the system will move out e fairly quickly Fri
with slowly moderating temps gaining momentum early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  31  33  23  /  30  60  70  70
BIG SPRING TX              49  33  35  27  /  30  80  60  80
CARLSBAD NM                45  33  34  23  /  20  40  90  50
DRYDEN TX                  55  43  44  37  /  50  50  40  80
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  33  36  26  /  40  50  40  80
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  28  32  20  /  30  40  80  50
HOBBS NM                   45  30  32  19  /  20  60  90  50
MARFA TX                   57  32  41  22  /  40  30  50  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  32  34  25  /  30  60  60  80
ODESSA TX                  47  32  34  25  /  30  60  60  80
WINK TX                    51  35  37  26  /  30  50  70  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through late Thursday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Thursday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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593
FXUS64 KMAF 210526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will start off with mostly clear skies but expect the development of
low clouds and some fog by mid morning with MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Will go ahead and start to mention some precip during later portions
of the TAF period and keep it all liquid. The wind will slowly veer
around to the east as surface ridge builds south.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite a cold front moving through the area this afternoon,
temperatures have once again warmed to well above normal, in the
middle 60s across southeast New Mexico to a balmy 80 degrees in
Terrell county Texas. Much colder air will filter into the area
behind the front tonight, with clouds and precipitation chances
increasing as a potent storm system takes aim on the region.
A southern stream trough is expected to continue to deepen and
develop a closed circulation as it drops from the Four Corners
Region toward West Texas over the next 24 hours. The GFS, NAM, and
Canadian display this trend, and maintain a slower passage of this
feature than the ECMWF, which remains the outlier in a much
quicker progression and maintains an open wave. Thus, have trended
the forecast away from the ECMWF toward more agreeable guidance.
A weaker shortwave will eject across the area ahead of this
feature on Wednesday, which will result in fairly widespread rain
chances. Steepening lapse rates across the Big Bend Area and Lower
Trans Pecos could result in some isolated thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon, though no severe weather is currently
anticipated.

Precipitation chances will continue to increase by Wednesday night
as the larger southern stream trough nears the area, and as
temperatures drop, expect to see the rain begin to change over to
snow first across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Glass Mountains, as well as across southeastern New Mexico and the
far northwestern Permian Basin. Rain, and perhaps a rain snow mix
are possible Thursday morning as temperatures warm above freezing
for a short time, though by Thursday afternoon and especially
Thursday night, temperatures will drop below freezing as the low
continues to dig south, and a transition from rain to all snow is
expected across the entire area except for the Presidio Valley,
Marfa Plateau, Big Bend Area, and Terrell County, where
temperatures look to remain just above freezing. Upon continued
review of local climatology, this still looks to be a stellar set-
up for a heavy snow event across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas. Precipitable water values with this system are well above
normal for this time of year, ranging from 0.50" to 0.75" across
the area for the duration of the event, from Wednesday through
Thursday night. Also, strong lift will be supported by the closed
low passing over the area, as well as an accompanying 300mb jet
axis entrance region that remains over the region through Friday
morning, and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the
trough Thursday night. Rapid cooling of 700mb temperatures on
Thursday evening and Thursday night also reinforce not only the
occurrence of heavy snow, but that the best opportunity for
accumulations will be overnight Thursday night and early Friday
morning.

While accumulations will likely be adjusted in later forecast
packages, it looks like widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
of snow are possible, with 5 to 6 inches possible across northern
Lea county, New Mexico as well as in the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Glass mountains, particularly above 4000ft. A Winter Storm Watch
has been issued for the entire area except for the Presidio
Valley, Marfa Plateau, Big Bend Area, and Terrell County. Please
see the watch product for details.

Not many changes were made to the extended this forecast package,
and did not deviate much from the blended forecast. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail beyond Friday, and temperatures will
slowly rebound over the weekend, climbing back into the 60s area-
wide by next Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from late Wednesday night through late
     Thursday night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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722
FXUS64 KMAF 202331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have post frontal conditions with a brisk N wind that should
decrease overnight and veer around to the east by tomorrow. VFR
conditions will give way to MVFR cigs at most TAF sites by
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite a cold front moving through the area this afternoon,
temperatures have once again warmed to well above normal, in the
middle 60s across southeast New Mexico to a balmy 80 degrees in
Terrell county Texas. Much colder air will filter into the area
behind the front tonight, with clouds and precipitation chances
increasing as a potent storm system takes aim on the region.
A southern stream trough is expected to continue to deepen and
develop a closed circulation as it drops from the Four Corners
Region toward West Texas over the next 24 hours. The GFS, NAM, and
Canadian display this trend, and maintain a slower passage of this
feature than the ECMWF, which remains the outlier in a much
quicker progression and maintains an open wave. Thus, have trended
the forecast away from the ECMWF toward more agreeable guidance.
A weaker shortwave will eject across the area ahead of this
feature on Wednesday, which will result in fairly widespread rain
chances. Steepening lapse rates across the Big Bend Area and Lower
Trans Pecos could result in some isolated thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon, though no severe weather is currently
anticipated.

Precipitation chances will continue to increase by Wednesday night
as the larger southern stream trough nears the area, and as
temperatures drop, expect to see the rain begin to change over to
snow first across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Glass Mountains, as well as across southeastern New Mexico and the
far northwestern Permian Basin. Rain, and perhaps a rain snow mix
are possible Thursday morning as temperatures warm above freezing
for a short time, though by Thursday afternoon and especially
Thursday night, temperatures will drop below freezing as the low
continues to dig south, and a transition from rain to all snow is
expected across the entire area except for the Presidio Valley,
Marfa Plateau, Big Bend Area, and Terrell County, where
temperatures look to remain just above freezing. Upon continued
review of local climatology, this still looks to be a stellar set-
up for a heavy snow event across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas. Precipitable water values with this system are well above
normal for this time of year, ranging from 0.50" to 0.75" across
the area for the duration of the event, from Wednesday through
Thursday night. Also, strong lift will be supported by the closed
low passing over the area, as well as an accompanying 300mb jet
axis entrance region that remains over the region through Friday
morning, and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the
trough Thursday night. Rapid cooling of 700mb temperatures on
Thursday evening and Thursday night also reinforce not only the
occurrence of heavy snow, but that the best opportunity for
accumulations will be overnight Thursday night and early Friday
morning.

While accumulations will likely be adjusted in later forecast
packages, it looks like widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
of snow are possible, with 5 to 6 inches possible across northern
Lea county, New Mexico as well as in the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Glass mountains, particularly above 4000ft. A Winter Storm Watch
has been issued for the entire area except for the Presidio
Valley, Marfa Plateau, Big Bend Area, and Terrell County. Please
see the watch product for details.

Not many changes were made to the extended this forecast package,
and did not deviate much from the blended forecast. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail beyond Friday, and temperatures will
slowly rebound over the weekend, climbing back into the 60s area-
wide by next Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from late Wednesday night through late
     Thursday night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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257
FXUS64 KMAF 202204
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Despite a cold front moving through the area this afternoon,
temperatures have once again warmed to well above normal, in the
middle 60s across southeast New Mexico to a balmy 80 degrees in
Terrell county Texas. Much colder air will filter into the area
behind the front tonight, with clouds and precipitation chances
increasing as a potent storm system takes aim on the region.
A southern stream trough is expected to continue to deepen and
develop a closed circulation as it drops from the Four Corners
Region toward West Texas over the next 24 hours. The GFS, NAM, and
Canadian display this trend, and maintain a slower passage of this
feature than the ECMWF, which remains the outlier in a much
quicker progression and maintains an open wave. Thus, have trended
the forecast away from the ECMWF toward more agreeable guidance.
A weaker shortwave will eject across the area ahead of this
feature on Wednesday, which will result in fairly widespread rain
chances. Steepening lapse rates across the Big Bend Area and Lower
Trans Pecos could result in some isolated thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon, though no severe weather is currently
anticipated.

Precipitation chances will continue to increase by Wednesday night
as the larger southern stream trough nears the area, and as
temperatures drop, expect to see the rain begin to change over to
snow first across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Glass Mountains, as well as across southeastern New Mexico and the
far northwestern Permian Basin. Rain, and perhaps a rain snow mix
are possible Thursday morning as temperatures warm above freezing
for a short time, though by Thursday afternoon and especially
Thursday night, temperatures will drop below freezing as the low
continues to dig south, and a transition from rain to all snow is
expected across the entire area except for the Presidio Valley,
Marfa Plateau, Big Bend Area, and Terrell County, where
temperatures look to remain just above freezing. Upon continued
review of local climatology, this still looks to be a stellar set-
up for a heavy snow event across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas. Precipitable water values with this system are well above
normal for this time of year, ranging from 0.50" to 0.75" across
the area for the duration of the event, from Wednesday through
Thursday night. Also, strong lift will be supported by the closed
low passing over the area, as well as an accompanying 300mb jet
axis entrance region that remains over the region through Friday
morning, and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the
trough Thursday night. Rapid cooling of 700mb temperatures on
Thursday evening and Thursday night also reinforce not only the
occurrence of heavy snow, but that the best opportunity for
accumulations will be overnight Thursday night and early Friday
morning.

While accumulations will likely be adjusted in later forecast
packages, it looks like widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
of snow are possible, with 5 to 6 inches possible across northern
Lea county, New Mexico as well as in the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Glass mountains, particularly above 4000ft. A Winter Storm Watch
has been issued for the entire area except for the Presidio
Valley, Marfa Plateau, Big Bend Area, and Terrell County. Please
see the watch product for details.

Not many changes were made to the extended this forecast package,
and did not deviate much from the blended forecast. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail beyond Friday, and temperatures will
slowly rebound over the weekend, climbing back into the 60s area-
wide by next Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  48  31  35  /   0  20  60  70
BIG SPRING TX              35  49  33  36  /   0  30  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                34  47  34  35  /   0  20  50  70
DRYDEN TX                  43  55  43  44  /   0  30  60  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  50  34  36  /   0  40  60  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  45  29  32  /   0  10  40  50
HOBBS NM                   32  45  30  33  /   0  20  60  80
MARFA TX                   30  55  33  41  /   0  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  49  33  35  /   0  30  70  50
ODESSA TX                  33  48  33  35  /   0  30  60  50
WINK TX                    35  51  36  38  /   0  20  50  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from late Wednesday night through late
     Thursday night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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485
FXUS64 KMAF 201608
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1008 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will gradually veer to NE by late this afternoon as a
cold front sinks into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As PBL
winds continue veering overnight, MVFR/IFR stratus will develop as
isentropic upglide takes hold around 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Light and variable winds will become northwesterly as a cold front
moves into the area later this morning.  Winds will become
northeasterly by this evening.  Some elevated and gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening but generally expect winds to be
light.  VFR conditions are expected for most of the period but some
low ceilings may come into the area around 12z Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another unseasonably warm day is expected with high temps some 10
degrees above normal as a weak cold front turns warm w-nw surface
winds to the n around/before mid day for areas n of I-20. To the s
of I-20 it will be warmer yet where 85h temps in the mid/upper teens
suggest 75 to 80 in the lower elevations of the Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile mid level flow will amplify starting early Wed as the srn
stream sharpens with a mid level trof across the swrn CONUS. An
initial lead 5h jetlet will quickly trek across nrn Mexico Wed PM
within a steepening lapse rate environment. The net result will be
an increased chance of SHRA/TSRA Wed PM into Thur AM, especially
across the Lower Trans Pecos and s/e PB. Cold air will be re-
enforced early Thur AM in assocn with nrn branch shrtwv trof. For
the most part temps will be above freezing early Thur AM, however
in parts of the nw-ne temps could be near freezing and SN/RA mix
or SN is possible there before 12Z. During the day Thur a closed
low (per GFS/Canadian) will be dropping s along the NM/AZ stateline
as an upstream 70kt 5h speed max helps to dig the low s. There`s
been some indication of the ECMWF trying to catch up to the more
closed soln of GFS/Canadian, but it has not as of the 00Z run.
What is interesting in the GFS/Canadian solutions are their match
to the Type B Heavy Snowfall climatology (digging srn branch
shrtwv trof/closed low from the nw) in the Lower Trans Pecos. Also
early on Thur the CIPS analog guidance does show some matches to
heavy snow events of the past (12/08/88 and 12/21/86) for the wrn
areas suggesting 3 to 6" of snow possible from the Davis to the
GDP Mtns which also fits with the Heavy Snowfall climatology.
There`s very good QPF agreement between the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
Thur PM into Fri AM, but the question is rain or snow? Using 7h
temps and 85h-5h thickness the initial snow levels late Thur PM
will be between 5-6kft in the Davis and around 5kft in the GDP
Mtns then lowering further into the night. Farther s in the Lower
Trans Pecos and by 12Z Fri snow levels look to be between 4-5kft.
Concern for now is whether to issue a Winter Storm Watch for late
Thur PM thru Fri AM from the GDP Mtns to Davis/Glass Mtns. For now
will reflect higher PoPs with higher snowfall grids as Thur night
is just beyond our local threshold for issuance. Not too much of a
concern after Friday except for coolish weather thru Sunday and then
warmer Mon-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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824
FXUS64 KMAF 201119
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light and variable winds will become northwesterly as a cold front
moves into the area later this morning.  Winds will become
northeasterly by this evening.  Some elevated and gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening but generally expect winds to be
light.  VFR conditions are expected for most of the period but some
low ceilings may come into the area around 12z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another unseasonably warm day is expected with high temps some 10
degrees above normal as a weak cold front turns warm w-nw surface
winds to the n around/before mid day for areas n of I-20. To the s
of I-20 it will be warmer yet where 85h temps in the mid/upper teens
suggest 75 to 80 in the lower elevations of the Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile mid level flow will amplify starting early Wed as the srn
stream sharpens with a mid level trof across the swrn CONUS. An
initial lead 5h jetlet will quickly trek across nrn Mexico Wed PM
within a steepening lapse rate environment. The net result will be
an increased chance of SHRA/TSRA Wed PM into Thur AM, especially
across the Lower Trans Pecos and s/e PB. Cold air will be re-
enforced early Thur AM in assocn with nrn branch shrtwv trof. For
the most part temps will be above freezing early Thur AM, however
in parts of the nw-ne temps could be near freezing and SN/RA mix
or SN is possible there before 12Z. During the day Thur a closed
low (per GFS/Canadian) will be dropping s along the NM/AZ stateline
as an upstream 70kt 5h speed max helps to dig the low s. There`s
been some indication of the ECMWF trying to catch up to the more
closed soln of GFS/Canadian, but it has not as of the 00Z run.
What is interesting in the GFS/Canadian solutions are their match
to the Type B Heavy Snowfall climatology (digging srn branch
shrtwv trof/closed low from the nw) in the Lower Trans Pecos. Also
early on Thur the CIPS analog guidance does show some matches to
heavy snow events of the past (12/08/88 and 12/21/86) for the wrn
areas suggesting 3 to 6" of snow possible from the Davis to the
GDP Mtns which also fits with the Heavy Snowfall climatology.
There`s very good QPF agreement between the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
Thur PM into Fri AM, but the question is rain or snow? Using 7h
temps and 85h-5h thickness the initial snow levels late Thur PM
will be between 5-6kft in the Davis and around 5kft in the GDP
Mtns then lowering further into the night. Farther s in the Lower
Trans Pecos and by 12Z Fri snow levels look to be between 4-5kft.
Concern for now is whether to issue a Winter Storm Watch for late
Thur PM thru Fri AM from the GDP Mtns to Davis/Glass Mtns. For now
will reflect higher PoPs with higher snowfall grids as Thur night
is just beyond our local threshold for issuance. Not too much of a
concern after Friday except for coolish weather thru Sunday and then
warmer Mon-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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582
FXUS64 KMAF 200951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another unseasonably warm day is expected with high temps some 10
degrees above normal as a weak cold front turns warm w-nw surface
winds to the n around/before mid day for areas n of I-20. To the s
of I-20 it will be warmer yet where 85h temps in the mid/upper teens
suggest 75 to 80 in the lower elevations of the Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile mid level flow will amplify starting early Wed as the srn
stream sharpens with a mid level trof across the swrn CONUS. An
initial lead 5h jetlet will quickly trek across nrn Mexico Wed PM
within a steepening lapse rate environment. The net result will be
an increased chance of SHRA/TSRA Wed PM into Thur AM, especially
across the Lower Trans Pecos and s/e PB. Cold air will be re-
enforced early Thur AM in assocn with nrn branch shrtwv trof. For
the most part temps will be above freezing early Thur AM, however
in parts of the nw-ne temps could be near freezing and SN/RA mix
or SN is possible there before 12Z. During the day Thur a closed
low (per GFS/Canadian) will be dropping s along the NM/AZ stateline
as an upstream 70kt 5h speed max helps to dig the low s. There`s
been some indication of the ECMWF trying to catch up to the more
closed soln of GFS/Canadian, but it has not as of the 00Z run.
What is interesting in the GFS/Canadian solutions are their match
to the Type B Heavy Snowfall climatology (digging srn branch
shrtwv trof/closed low from the nw) in the Lower Trans Pecos. Also
early on Thur the CIPS analog guidance does show some matches to
heavy snow events of the past (12/08/88 and 12/21/86) for the wrn
areas suggesting 3 to 6" of snow possible from the Davis to the
GDP Mtns which also fits with the Heavy Snowfall climatology.
There`s very good QPF agreement between the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
Thur PM into Fri AM, but the question is rain or snow? Using 7h
temps and 85h-5h thickness the initial snow levels late Thur PM
will be between 5-6kft in the Davis and around 5kft in the GDP
Mtns then lowering further into the night. Farther s in the Lower
Trans Pecos and by 12Z Fri snow levels look to be between 4-5kft.
Concern for now is whether to issue a Winter Storm Watch for late
Thur PM thru Fri AM from the GDP Mtns to Davis/Glass Mtns. For now
will reflect higher PoPs with higher snowfall grids as Thur night
is just beyond our local threshold for issuance. Not too much of a
concern after Friday except for coolish weather thru Sunday and then
warmer Mon-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  33  48  32  /   0   0  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              68  35  50  33  /   0   0  30  60
CARLSBAD NM                67  34  48  34  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  79  44  55  43  /   0   0  20  60
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  36  50  33  /   0   0  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  33  44  29  /   0   0  10  40
HOBBS NM                   63  32  47  30  /   0   0  10  50
MARFA TX                   70  31  55  33  /   0   0  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  33  49  33  /   0   0  30  60
ODESSA TX                  67  33  49  33  /   0   0  30  50
WINK TX                    71  35  51  36  /   0   0  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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983
FXUS64 KMAF 200449
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light westerly winds expected through the first half of the TAF
period, with a shift from the north or northeast behind a cold
front 18-00Z. VFR through the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Dry and mild conditions will prevail across the forecast area this
afternoon, and again Tuesday, for the most part, under the influence
of west to northwest flow aloft.  Do not think we will eclipse any
records, but it will be pretty nice anyways.  However, it is still
winter and a shortwave trough traversing the northern U.S. Plains
today, and the Midwest tonight, will send a cold front south into
the region Tuesday afternoon in it`s wake.  Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of Interstate 20, but should be
pretty similar to today further south.  The front should clear the
Rio Grande River late Tuesday night.

The forecast then takes a decidedly wetter turn thereafter as an
upper trough deepens over the Great Basin Tuesday and heads toward
Texas via the Four Corners region Wednesday.  It looks like low
level upslope flow will combine with a shortwave trough ejecting
ahead of the mentioned ua trough, the RRQ of a 130+kt h25 jet and
PWats rising to around 0.75 inch to produce showers over portions of
the area Wednesday afternoon.  Some models are indicating
destabilization above the cool airmass, so a few thunderstorms are
not out of the question, especially since h7-h5 lapse rates top out
near 7 C/Km.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms become more
widespread into Wednesday night and spread eastward.  The column
cools Wednesday night with precipitation changing to snow, and
perhaps some sleet, in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and northern Permian Basin.  Since
surface temperatures will likely still be above freezing, save in
the higher elevations of the mountains, snow accumulations will
likely be an inch or less.  The best moisture and lift will move
east of the mountains through late Wednesday night, which should
limit snowfall amounts in the higher elevations in the mountains to
an inch or two at best.  Will highlight the above in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for now, but later shifts will have to monitor these
time frames for a deeper ua trough, and whether there is a greater
southward thrust of cold air at the surface.  The good thing about
all of this is we will have a pretty good shot at needed rain with
some locations possibly receiving a half inch or more of rainfall.

It will be pretty chilly Thursday, and with the ua tough still yet
to pass overhead, light mixed precipitation will be possible.  It
looks like surface temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so
light rain/snow does not appear to present many difficulties.  A
warming trend will set in Friday, but the degree of the warmup
thereafter will depend on how far east an ua ridge over the west
coast migrates eastward.  Will stick to a more middle of the road
solution for now which portends no precipitation chances through the
rest of the extended, and temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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361
FXUS64 KMAF 192300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light westerly winds through most of the period. A cold
front will cause a shift in direction from the northeast the last
6 hours of the TAF.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Dry and mild conditions will prevail across the forecast area this
afternoon, and again Tuesday, for the most part, under the influence
of west to northwest flow aloft.  Do not think we will eclipse any
records, but it will be pretty nice anyways.  However, it is still
winter and a shortwave trough traversing the northern U.S. Plains
today, and the Midwest tonight, will send a cold front south into
the region Tuesday afternoon in it`s wake.  Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of Interstate 20, but should be
pretty similar to today further south.  The front should clear the
Rio Grande River late Tuesday night.

The forecast then takes a decidedly wetter turn thereafter as an
upper trough deepens over the Great Basin Tuesday and heads toward
Texas via the Four Corners region Wednesday.  It looks like low
level upslope flow will combine with a shortwave trough ejecting
ahead of the mentioned ua trough, the RRQ of a 130+kt h25 jet and
PWats rising to around 0.75 inch to produce showers over portions of
the area Wednesday afternoon.  Some models are indicating
destabilization above the cool airmass, so a few thunderstorms are
not out of the question, especially since h7-h5 lapse rates top out
near 7 C/Km.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms become more
widespread into Wednesday night and spread eastward.  The column
cools Wednesday night with precipitation changing to snow, and
perhaps some sleet, in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and northern Permian Basin.  Since
surface temperatures will likely still be above freezing, save in
the higher elevations of the mountains, snow accumulations will
likely be an inch or less.  The best moisture and lift will move
east of the mountains through late Wednesday night, which should
limit snowfall amounts in the higher elevations in the mountains to
an inch or two at best.  Will highlight the above in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for now, but later shifts will have to monitor these
time frames for a deeper ua trough, and whether there is a greater
southward thrust of cold air at the surface.  The good thing about
all of this is we will have a pretty good shot at needed rain with
some locations possibly receiving a half inch or more of rainfall.

It will be pretty chilly Thursday, and with the ua tough still yet
to pass overhead, light mixed precipitation will be possible.  It
looks like surface temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so
light rain/snow does not appear to present many difficulties.  A
warming trend will set in Friday, but the degree of the warmup
thereafter will depend on how far east an ua ridge over the west
coast migrates eastward.  Will stick to a more middle of the road
solution for now which portends no precipitation chances through the
rest of the extended, and temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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043
FXUS64 KMAF 192024
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Dry and mild conditions will prevail across the forecast area this
afternoon, and again Tuesday, for the most part, under the influence
of west to northwest flow aloft.  Do not think we will eclipse any
records, but it will be pretty nice anyways.  However, it is still
winter and a shortwave trough traversing the northern U.S. Plains
today, and the Midwest tonight, will send a cold front south into
the region Tuesday afternoon in it`s wake.  Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of Interstate 20, but should be
pretty similar to today further south.  The front should clear the
Rio Grande River late Tuesday night.

The forecast then takes a decidedly wetter turn thereafter as an
upper trough deepens over the Great Basin Tuesday and heads toward
Texas via the Four Corners region Wednesday.  It looks like low
level upslope flow will combine with a shortwave trough ejecting
ahead of the mentioned ua trough, the RRQ of a 130+kt h25 jet and
PWats rising to around 0.75 inch to produce showers over portions of
the area Wednesday afternoon.  Some models are indicating
destabilization above the cool airmass, so a few thunderstorms are
not out of the question, especially since h7-h5 lapse rates top out
near 7 C/Km.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms become more
widespread into Wednesday night and spread eastward.  The column
cools Wednesday night with precipitation changing to snow, and
perhaps some sleet, in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and northern Permian Basin.  Since
surface temperatures will likely still be above freezing, save in
the higher elevations of the mountains, snow accumulations will
likely be an inch or less.  The best moisture and lift will move
east of the mountains through late Wednesday night, which should
limit snowfall amounts in the higher elevations in the mountains to
an inch or two at best.  Will highlight the above in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for now, but later shifts will have to monitor these
time frames for a deeper ua trough, and whether there is a greater
southward thrust of cold air at the surface.  The good thing about
all of this is we will have a pretty good shot at needed rain with
some locations possibly receiving a half inch or more of rainfall.

It will be pretty chilly Thursday, and with the ua tough still yet
to pass overhead, light mixed precipitation will be possible.  It
looks like surface temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so
light rain/snow does not appear to present many difficulties.  A
warming trend will set in Friday, but the degree of the warmup
thereafter will depend on how far east an ua ridge over the west
coast migrates eastward.  Will stick to a more middle of the road
solution for now which portends no precipitation chances through the
rest of the extended, and temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  65  35  48  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              38  68  35  50  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                36  66  35  46  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  43  78  43  53  /   0   0   0  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  72  37  48  /   0   0   0  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  62  33  43  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   34  60  34  45  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   31  70  31  52  /   0   0   0  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  69  35  49  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  38  67  35  49  /   0   0   0  30
WINK TX                    36  71  36  49  /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/67

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076
FXUS64 KMAF 191743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1143 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with only high clouds will prevail through the
forecast period. West winds will gradually veer to the northwest
overnight, becoming fairly light after sunset through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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007
FXUS64 KMAF 191131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Elevated NW winds at HOB and FST through
this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day on the east side of an upper ridge centered over
the Pacific coast.  This ridge will remain over the region before an
upper trough moves ashore the CA coast early Wednesday quickly
swings across AZ late in the day.  Models eject shortwaves ahead
of this trough and over W TX and SE NM Wednesday.  By Thursday this
trough will begin to move into the edge of the area passing across
the region overnight.  Another ridge will try to build in behind
this trough but it looks to have a shortwave trough ride down the
east side of the ridge and into the area by next Sunday.

Should be another warm day today with nearly unrestricted sunshine.
A cold front will move into the area Tuesday but looks to be slower
and weaker than models were showing 24hrs ago.  This will result in
a warmer day Tuesday.  Fropa does not look as windy as previous
runs... have backed off wind speeds a little.  Will have increasing
clouds by mid week ahead of the upper trough... this will keep temps
well below normal Wednesday and Thursday.  Looking for widespread
highs in the 70s today... 60s north and 70s south on Tuesday... and
40s and 50s on Wednesday.  Readings should recover to near normal
Friday into the weekend.

Precip chances return Wednesday.  should start out as rain during
the day but mix with or change over to snow Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.  Models have been developing some fairly high qpf
amounts... most of this should be liquid but could have enough
freezing/frozen precip around to create travel problems.  Will
continue to mention in HWO with possible advisories to come.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 190903
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Will start the day on the east side of an upper ridge centered over
the Pacific coast.  This ridge will remain over the region before an
upper trough moves ashore the CA coast early Wednesday quickly
swings across AZ late in the day.  Models eject shortwaves ahead
of this trough and over W TX and SE NM Wednesday.  By Thursday this
trough will begin to move into the edge of the area passing across
the region overnight.  Another ridge will try to build in behind
this trough but it looks to have a shortwave trough ride down the
east side of the ridge and into the area by next Sunday.

Should be another warm day today with nearly unrestricted sunshine.
A cold front will move into the area Tuesday but looks to be slower
and weaker than models were showing 24hrs ago.  This will result in
a warmer day Tuesday.  Fropa does not look as windy as previous
runs... have backed off wind speeds a little.  Will have increasing
clouds by mid week ahead of the upper trough... this will keep temps
well below normal Wednesday and Thursday.  Looking for widespread
highs in the 70s today... 60s north and 70s south on Tuesday... and
40s and 50s on Wednesday.  Readings should recover to near normal
Friday into the weekend.

Precip chances return Wednesday.  should start out as rain during
the day but mix with or change over to snow Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.  Models have been developing some fairly high qpf
amounts... most of this should be liquid but could have enough
freezing/frozen precip around to create travel problems.  Will
continue to mention in HWO with possible advisories to come.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  34  65  32  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  35  65  34  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  33  67  33  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  74  41  77  42  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  43  72  36  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  40  61  31  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   70  33  63  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  28  71  32  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  34  67  33  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  69  33  66  33  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  33  68  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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