Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting all terminals as well as the potential for FZRA at CNM,
HOB and maybe others as well. Currently has a strong cold
front moving south through the region this morning. As of 5am
CST, the front had cleared all but FST. Behind the front, expect
gusty north winds to persist through at least mid if not a little
later. IFR cigs filling in behind the front, currently affecting
all but FST and INK, but it shouldn`t be long before conditions
deteriorate at these terminals as well. Expect low cigs, and at
times low vis, to continue through the remainder of the TAF
period. As temperatures continue to fall throughout the day, near
or below freezing temperatures at CNM and HOB later this morning
will likely result in rain changing to freezing rain. Have
continued mention of -FZRA at these two locations through tonight.
Other sites will need to be monitored closely for the potential of
freezing rain later today/tonight. Otherwise, will continue to
monitor current trends and amend when needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

A strong upper low over the Great Basin this morning will slowly
wobble east the next few days.  This low will bring potential of
winter weather to the region.

A strong cold front is moving rapidly southward across the region
this morning.  As of 08z it has moved south of MAF.  This front will
continue to push south... models show it will be noon before it
makes it to the Rio Grande but at its current pace may be sooner.
Models have been under doing the speed of this front and how cold
the airmass is.  Temperatures will fall through the day as cold air
advection continues through the day and night.

Tropical moisture from Pacific Hurricane Sandra off the coast of
Mexico being thrown across the area so airmass very moist.  The
front and the low will provide ample lift for rain... some possibly
heavy.  Radar currently shows light to moderate rainfall from Kent
to Snyder and spreading across the Permian Basin.  Concerned about
potential for locally heavy rain in addition to winter wx.

An Ice Storm Warning is in effect for part of Lea Co and the
Northern Permian Basin with a Winter Storm Watch out for the rest of
Southeast New Mexico... most of the Permian Basin... and for the Van
Horn region down through the Davis Mountains primarily for the
higher elevations.  Temperatures have been warm so main concern with
ice will be elevated surfaces such as power lines... trees... and
bridges.  Will upgrade a portion of the watch from Eddy Co to
Mitchell Co and Culberson to the Davis Mountains to a Winter Wx
Advisory as of 18z... with the rest of the watch for the Permian
Basin and Upper Trans Pecos pushed back to 00z.  Worse icing
conditions expected across the South Plains and Texas Panhandle so
travel northward discouraged.

Eventually the low moves east but additional troughs move over the
western part of the country.  Temperatures recover next week but
generally remain below normal.


NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM MST
     Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...
     Southern Lea County.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to noon
     Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Scurry.

     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Glasscock...Loving...
     Midland...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Winkler.



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