Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171904

204 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015

Convective potential will remain limited today/tonight, however by
Mon AM low level moisture return will be ongoing in earnest, per a
low level jet with deepening sely flow thru the day Monday.
Meanwhile a plume of much steeper mid level LRs will overspread much
of CWFA. This along with strong SB heating will result in large CAPE
and the risk of severe storms, especially large hail, a brief
tornado can`t be ruled out either. Looking closely at surface
temps/dwpnts their respective maxima will be nearly co-located
INVOF Pecos River Valley. It does make some sense that storms will
initiate near/just ne of the Davis Mtns and then strengthen as
they move newd into said warm/moist low level airmass. NAM12 is
quite aggressive with instability, possibly around/over 3000 J/KG
within the TX portion of Pecos River Valley. This with deep layer
shear of 40-45kts will make for a most favorable environment for
severe storms across the wrn PB by late afternoon and Lea/ern
Eddy Co NM/nw PB by early evening. We will ramp up severe wording
in our products for Monday. More of the same Tue, but the dryline
will be better developed with rich dwpnt air still along and e of
dryline, dwpnts low to mid 60s with evidence of a weak boundary in
MSLP data. There is some concern that convection in the morning
across the nrn PB could limit afternoon convection Tue? By Wed
severe wx concerns will still exist with NAM12 indicating that a
frontal boundary may be draped nw-se across the S Plains/nrn PB. A
theta-e ridge at surface will be INVOF highway 349 and ewd. Attm
it is difficult to confidently say where/if tstms will develop as
previous days/nights precip will modulate features and timing. For
what its worth, Thur frontal boundary would likely be farther s,
even near I-10, and with sw flow aloft and with mstr still in
place behind front more rain would be possible, including Fri.
Indications are that the mid level trof will finally move enough
ewd to restrict rain potential to the far e CWFA Sat/Sun.
Temperatures stay more or less normal to below normal thru the
forecast with some of the days modulated by precip and of course
the front mid week.


ANDREWS TX                 60  86  65  82  /   0  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              63  88  68  80  /   0  30  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                54  88  61  88  /   0  30  50  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  90  70  90  /  10  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  89  68  88  /   0  40  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  80  58  80  /   0  20  40  10
HOBBS NM                   55  86  62  81  /   0  30  60  30
MARFA TX                   50  85  54  86  /   0  20  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  88  67  84  /   0  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  62  87  67  82  /   0  40  50  40
WINK TX                    62  90  69  88  /   0  40  50  20





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