Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 150450

1050 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


Light to modest west winds and VFR conditions through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/


Grids have been updated to expire the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory out west. Winds have decreased at most locations this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Guadalupe Pass may
see winds near 45 mph for another hour or so before quickly
diminishing around midnight. Everything else is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/


WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit






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