Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151140

640 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014


Please see the 15/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.



In general skies will remain VFR through Saturday morning. A moist
fetch coming up from northern Mexico can be expected overhead through
the next 24 hours, with scattered to broken mid and high cloudiness
likely. This morning, we`ll see some gusty winds to maybe 20 kts at
KMAF, KHOB, and KFST as stronger winds just off the deck mix down
to the surface. Weak disturbances within the moist fetch along
with daytime heating will make for an unstable atmosphere, and
buildups over the mountains will be likely by early afternoon.
Some of these will mature into TSRA, and at least ISOLD coverage
is forecast at all terminals by late afternoon. While the best
chances for TSRA will be at KCNM roughly in the 21Z-03Z time
range, our confidence in TSRA impacting KCMN is not high enough
right now to include a PROB30. As we get a better idea of
convective evolution through the day, we`ll update as necessary.
In and around TSRA this afternoon through tonight, look for gusty
winds to maybe 45 mph along with frequent cloud-to- ground
lightning strikes and localized MVFR conditions in RA. May even
see localized MVFR visibilities in BLDU as well. We ought to see
an overall decrease in TSRA coverage after 06Z tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

Subtropical ridge axis will be far enough w today so that a slow
moving shrtwv trof will have a chance to drop sewd in the nw flow
aloft. This will also allow for the mid level theta-e ridge axis
to move ewd and is expected to stretch from SW NM into TX Panhandle.
As such PoPs will be favored in close proximity to said features.
NAM12 sounding at CNM shows high based convection with gusty winds
a concern. NAM/ECMWF is "wetter" than GFS and will opt side a
little closer to METMOS with high end slight chc/low end chc PoPs
across the w-nw. Temperatures still be above normal today, but if
convection forms early enough it will be a little cooler across SE
NM/Upper Trans Pecos. We will opt to keep lingering slght chc PoPs
into the night as well. Pattern continues to play out Saturday
with said mid level theta-e ridge/weakness in height field slowly
drifting sewd and NAM12 staying in convective mode with generous
QPF. Based on the pattern it does make some sense for precip to
be generated. There could be outflow boundaries from Friday`s
storms that serve as focus? Should be better coverage of SHRA/TSRA
across the mtns on Saturday and just a little cooler too. On
Sunday NAM/ECMWF keep said mid level theta-e ridge across the e-s
CWFA while GFS pushes it just out of the CWFA. Mid level flow will
mostly be from the NE by Sunday and will orient the PoPs closer to
consensus theta-e ridge position with temperatures steady to just
slightly cooler. Models diverge thereafter with ECMWF remaining
more moist with a prominent weakness evident in height field through
Friday. Not so sure about this, but there is general agreement in
GEFS/NAFES that a western US trof will persist. Hard to say what
this means for us, but again ECMWF is optimistically cooler/wetter.






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