Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

680
FXUS64 KMAF 112019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Much cooler temperatures have prevailed today behind a weak cold
front which has settled along the I-10 corridor. Another, stronger
cold front is on the way tomorrow with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

Showers and storms are beginning to develop from the Davis Mountains
east to Big Lake along yesterdays cold front. This area of storms is
expected to expand north this evening and tonight, encompassing most
of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by morning. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms as PWAT values increase over 1.5"
and Gulf moisture rides up and over the cooler air behind the front.
This area of rain will likely combine with more storms moving south
across E NM and the TX Panhandle tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty
remains for which locations will receive the heaviest rain, however
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM appear to have the best shot. These
areas received several inches of rain last weekend and this looks
possible once again. Will continue the mention of locally heavy rain
in the forecast and issue a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday
morning. This watch may need to be expanded east with time, but this
is the area we are most confident about now.

A potent shortwave over Montana will send a strong cold front south
tonight, reaching our region Friday morning. Snow is being reported
behind this front as far south as Nebraska and northern Colorado.
High temperatures will be reached early in the day as readings fall
quickly behind the front. Most locations north of the I-20 corridor
will be in the 50s by afternoon with a strong northerly wind. We are
also looking at our first gap wind event of the season for Guadalupe
Pass as intense pressure rises arrive behind the front. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for GDP Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to fall Friday night, bottoming out in
the upper 40s and 50s across the area Saturday morning. We will
likely only warm into the 60s and low 70s Saturday afternoon as the
clouds stick around with areas of light drizzle possible. By Sunday,
a disturbance over Mexico begins to shift north with rain again
overspreading the area from the lower Trans Pecos into the southern
Permian Basin. The extended remains more uncertain as an upper ridge
builds to our west and we transition to northwesterly flow aloft. A
couple of the models bring a front in by midweek so more rain is
possible as temps stay near normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  69  51  65  /  80  90  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              68  73  55  66  /  70  70  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                68  71  54  65  /  80  80  60  30
DRYDEN TX                  78  93  66  79  /  40  40  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  55  67  /  60  60  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  66  49  62  /  80  80  60  30
HOBBS NM                   65  67  50  63  /  90  90  50  20
MARFA TX                   61  77  54  67  /  50  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  70  53  67  /  70  70  40  20
ODESSA TX                  66  70  52  67  /  70  70  40  20
WINK TX                    69  76  54  67  /  70  80  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Friday night FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday evening through late Friday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.