Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171709

1209 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015

18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting MAF and maybe even FST Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all terminals through tonight. Currently
have light and variable winds across the region with some mid and
high clouds increasing from the west. Expect winds to become more
established around 10-15kt from the SW this afternoon then diminish
after sunset. Moisture will come surging in from the SE, resulting
in at least MVFR cigs (potentially IFR cat) at MAF by sunrise
Monday. Could see low cigs at FST as well however confidence is too
low attm to include mention in this TAF cycle.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

The upper air pattern this year certainly has a different look to
it than that seen in recent years. Previous years have had an
upper ridge over the western U.S. bringing hot temperatures and
dry air to west Texas and eastern New Mexico but so far this year
we have had a persistent trough, keeping upper level flow
southwesterly and providing a continued chance for rain and
near normal temperatures.

This scenario will play out the next seven days as one upper low
after another moves into the Great Basin providing rain chances
all week. Today will be the lone exception as a departing upper
low pushes convection east of the CWA, however another low
develops to our west pulling moisture back against the mountains
giving us a chance for rain the remainder of the week. It will be
difficult providing too much detail on where and when rain will
fall since it will depend on the location and timing of the
surface dryline and passing upper level troughs...features models
are notoriously poor at handling very far in advance. Therefore
the forecast is somewhat generic with PoPs generally lower out
west and higher in the east where moisture is more likely to be
found. Instability and shear will be enough that any storms that
form could become severe as noted in the Day2 and Day3 outlooks
from SPC which show most of the area in a marginal or slight risk.
Flash flooding will also be possible with precipitable water
values at least one standard deviation above normal.







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