Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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753
FXUS64 KMAF 211737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are hanging tough at most area terminals. Will
continue to include these, along with TSRA at all TAF sites into
the evening. Ceilings will likely lower tonight.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014/

We are still dealing with the remnants of Odile with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into Monday before the
weak circulation center finally dissipates. The rainfall areal
coverage has not been particularly great, but where rain is
falling, it is heavy with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour not at
all uncommon. On top of that many areas have received rain
recently and the soil is saturated so most additional precip is
running off. Thus will continue the Flash Flood Watch through
today and it may need to be extended into tonight especially in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos.

Rain chances will drop some Monday then will really fall off
Tuesday as an upper level ridge rapidly amplifies over the
Rockies/Plains by mid week. In fact, models are indicating it
amplifies so much it will capture the southern end of a Midwest
trough and cause it to retrograde back towards Texas by Thursday.
This will keep lower heights across the CWA and prevent much
warming this forecast period. There could be some isolated storms
associated with this late in the week but will keep the late week
forecast mostly dry for now.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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