Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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640
FXUS64 KMAF 251905
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Despite rainfall being slow to develop over the forecast area,
the potential for heavy rainfall still exists.  However, will
trim the western counties from the Watch, and leave the eastern
most counties in effect through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have filled in a little over the forecast
area this afternoon, especially a cold front moving south into
the region.  So far, portions of southern Pecos county, Upton,
Reagan, Glasscock and Mitchell counties have seen the heaviest
rainfall since last night as the axis of heaviest precipitation
has been mainly east of the forecast area.  The cutoff low
continues to swirl over the Mexican state of Sonora, with good
difluent flow aloft over the region to the east of this feature.
The trend in operational models is for the upper low to retrograde
farther southwestward through tonight, before translating north
into the Great Basin Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper trough.

Think numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the forecast area as the cold front pushes south through the
region this afternoon and tonight.  PWATs are still near 1.75 inches
over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, or near climatological
record levels for 25 September.  Severe storms look unlikely due
to a very moist column and modest instability, but heavy rainfall
could still occur, especially over the eastern most zones this
afternoon/evening where the best lift is indicated, and enough
instability present to support higher rainfall rates.  Still
think 2-4 inch amounts could occur in these areas, hence the Flash
Flood Watch remaining in effect for Scurry, Mitchell, Glasscock,
Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell and Brewster counties.

Over the rest of the forecast area, there could still be heavy
rainfall, but it appears it will be much more spotty, and something
which can be covered with Areal Flood Advisories instead.  Therefore,
have decided to trim Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Andrews, Martin,
Howard, Winkler, Ector, Midland, Ward and Crane from the Flash
Flood Watch.  Expect low level upslope flow and isentropic
upglide over the front to increase but a more stable atmosphere
will likely keep rainfall rates lower and any higher rainfall
totals will occur over a longer duration.  Lastly, the High Wind
Warning will remain in effect for Guadalupe Pass from this
afternoon through Monday morning.  Model guidance has toned down
the outlandish wind speeds displayed there prior, and have also
lowered near Wind Advisory northeast winds (30-40 mph) over the
Permian Basin tonight too.

Rain chances will continue on Monday, and if all of the above comes
about, the Flash Flood Watch may have to be extended, especially
for the Lower Trans Pecos.  Will forego extension of the Watch at
this time so as to see how much actually falls in these areas
before committing to an extension.  High temperatures will be
well below normal along and south of Interstate 20, and over the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas Monday. Locations further
north and east could see a bit more sun, so they won`t be quite as
cool.  A drying and warming trend will set in Tuesday and
Wednesday, with readings expected to be near normal into next
weekend.  There could be an uptick in rain chances Thursday/
Friday, but lack of agreement will prevent addition of chance
PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  61  53  68 /  30  30  30  10
Dryden                         63  68  57  70 /  60  60  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  61  52  67 /  60  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  52  45  61 /  60  60  30  10
Hobbs                          54  60  51  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  59  50  65 /  50  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           56  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Odessa                         55  60  53  70 /  60  30  10  10
Wink                           58  61  53  69 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Big Bend Area-
     Glasscock-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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