Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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454
FXUS64 KMAF 302318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 301901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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632
FXUS64 KMAF 301628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours, on the NE periphery of
the upper ridge. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly extensive cu
field developing this afternoon and Sunday, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.
Otherwise, light return flow continues, w/slim chances of convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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776
FXUS64 KMAF 301132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon cu expected. Light wind this morning will
become SE around 10kts by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  98  71  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  70 101  69  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  96  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  93  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  61  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    99  72 102  73  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 300541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR... few clouds overnight with afternoon cu expected. Wind will
remain out of the SE generally 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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779
FXUS64 KMAF 300151
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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758
FXUS64 KMAF 291924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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436
FXUS64 KMAF 291859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left scattered 30-40% PoPs there for this PM.
Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves se
into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z Sat
and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot side
with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level mstr
will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s Sunday/Monday as se
surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase though with 7h temps
increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C Monday. Isold PoPs still
look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns though. 85h temps will
increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in SE NM, thus it will be
warmer still. There will be little change Tue, but LI`s will slowly
becoming more negative and ECMWF does initiate small area of storms
across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a very minor 5h mid level theta-e
ridge axis. Mid level ridging is well in place Wed with an e-se mid
level flow. This will cool 7h temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA
will be possible. In lieu of "shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry
Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of precip may be just a little better
across the w as mid level mstr will have had a better chance to move
into higher terrain of the Trans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  40  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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352
FXUS64 KMAF 291636
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Widespread cu fields
are expected this afternoon and near the end of the forecast
period, w/bases 4.5-7 kft agl. Little convection is expected in
the wake of the exiting upper trough.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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256
FXUS64 KMAF 291121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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745
FXUS64 KMAF 290953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  95  71  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  71  96  72  /  40  40  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  70  97  70  /  10   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  74  96  73  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  71  96  71  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  89  64  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  71  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  95  72  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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586
FXUS64 KMAF 290539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos will continue to
decline over the next few hours as they move east. Only included
mention of TSRA at FST. Otherwise VFR with generally light wind
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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675
FXUS64 KMAF 282317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered storms will continue across the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos through the evening. Have included tempos for this at KMAF
and KFST. Main threat will be gusty winds and lowered visibility
in and near storms. Will also need to monitor for more storm
development overnight across the area as the upper trough axis
moves across the Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
more isolated storms possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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523
FXUS64 KMAF 281911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72  95  /  30  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  97  74  97  /  40  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  99  70 100  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  79 101  77 100  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  71  94  /  30  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  91  67  90  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   68  96  69  97  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  86  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  96  74  96  /  30  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  73  95  /  30  20  20  10
WINK TX                    74 100  73  99  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/06

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656
FXUS64 KMAF 281706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Visible sat shows a theta-e ridge extending from the Big Bend
thru the upper CO River valley, while aloft, WV imagery shows the
upper trough moving into NE CO. Mesoanalysis still has areas east
of the Pecos capped, but expect things to destabilize quickly once
this erodes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
or shortly after issuance time, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Short term
models develop a line of convection early this afternoon in an
area of large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, and a second line
as the trough axis moves thru overnight. Expect VFR conditions
throughout the forecast period, except perhaps in areas of heavy
rainfall.  Otherwise, light return flow will continue next 24
hours, w/another widespread cu field developing near the end of
the forecast period, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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235
FXUS64 KMAF 281100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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052
FXUS64 KMAF 280855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  69  94  70  /  40  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  95  73  /  40  40  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                94  69  95  69  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 100  76 100  75  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72  95  71  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  90  66  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   91  67  93  66  /  30  30  20  20
MARFA TX                   86  60  90  60  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  72  96  72  /  40  40  30  30
ODESSA TX                  95  72  94  72  /  40  40  30  30
WINK TX                    98  73  98  73  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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961
FXUS64 KMAF 280538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
Once again there will be scattered TS across the area this
afternoon and evening but will not put most TAF sites at this
time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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336
FXUS64 KMAF 272304 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
through the evening hours.  Convection will still be possible across
the area through the overnight period into Thursday afternoon.
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected.  Winds will
remain fairly light throughout the period out of the south and west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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640
FXUS64 KMAF 272050 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  70  94  /  30  40  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              75  96  74  95  /  20  40  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  95  69  94  /  30  30  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  96  71  95  /  20  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  88  65  91  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   70  92  67  93  /  30  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   61  87  61  90  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  72  95  /  20  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  74  94  72  94  /  20  40  40  30
WINK TX                    74  98  73  98  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/06

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815
FXUS64 KMAF 271854
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move through.
Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough to produce
scattered thunderstorms.  There will also be increased moisture to
tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This amount of
moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall for parts
of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  72  94  70  /  10  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              97  75  96  74  /  10  20  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  95  69  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  72  96  71  /  10  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  88  65  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   93  70  92  67  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  61  87  61  /  10  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  74  96  72  /  10  20  40  40
ODESSA TX                  96  74  94  72  /  10  20  40  40
WINK TX                    99  74  98  73  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/06

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433
FXUS64 KMAF 271711
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas terminals through Thursday morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible mainly in the mountain areas and
adjacent plains, prompting a tempo at CNM. Elsewhere, isolated
late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible at area
terminals with a chance of occurrence too low to include in
upcoming TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 12 knots,
though variable and gusty winds are likely in and near any
thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. TS will be in the area and
could affect TAF sites with variable and gusty winds, but coverage
will not be great enough to include in FM group of TAFs. Will
amend as needed with the greatest chances being between 19z-03z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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340
FXUS64 KMAF 271126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. TS will be in the area and
could affect TAF sites with variable and gusty winds, but coverage
will not be great enough to include in FM group of TAFs. Will
amend as needed with the greatest chances being between 19z-03z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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219
FXUS64 KMAF 270858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  72  94  69  /  10  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              97  74  96  73  /  10  20  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  95  68  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 101  76  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  96  71  /  10  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  88  65  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   93  69  92  66  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  61  87  60  /  10  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  73  96  72  /  10  20  40  40
ODESSA TX                  96  73  94  71  /  10  20  40  40
WINK TX                    99  74  98  73  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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014
FXUS64 KMAF 270523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be in the area but coverage will not be enough
to place TS in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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976
FXUS64 KMAF 262312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms could affect KCNM Wednesday afternoon, but
probabilities are too low to include at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  94  /  10  10  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  70  95  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 101  74 100  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  97  72  96  /  10  10  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  87  65  87  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  93  /  10  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  88  /  20  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
ODESSA TX                  73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
WINK TX                    73 100  73  99  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72

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704
FXUS64 KMAF 261927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  94  /  10  10  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  70  95  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 101  74 100  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  97  72  96  /  10  10  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  87  65  87  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  93  /  10  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  88  /  20  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
ODESSA TX                  73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
WINK TX                    73 100  73  99  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72

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567
FXUS64 KMAF 261652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Wednesday morning with winds mostly
south to southeast at less than 12 knots. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and into the evening mainly over
southeast New Mexico but extending into the western Permian Basin
and trans-Pecos areas, including the CNM, HOB, PEQ and INK
terminals. Variable and gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. The chance for thunderstorms at
these locations is not sufficient to include in the 18Z terminal
forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light/variable winds
areawide this morning, however southeast winds will become more
established this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
possible once again today but think activity should stay west of the
terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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181
FXUS64 KMAF 261104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light/variable winds
areawide this morning, however southeast winds will become more
established this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
possible once again today but think activity should stay west of the
terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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325
FXUS64 KMAF 260935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  96  71  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  72  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  70  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  99  74  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  87  65  /  20  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   93  68  94  68  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   89  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  20
WINK TX                    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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056
FXUS64 KMAF 260519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014


.AVIATION...

06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Earlier convective activity has
diminished tonight and currently seeing some light showers on
radar near PEQ and HOB. Thunderstorms will be possible once again
Tuesday afternoon/evening but think activity should stay west of
the terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet. Otherwise,
expect light/variable winds through morning then southeast winds
become more established for the afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day with an upper ridge extending from the Great Lakes
to NM and an upper trough over the Northwest U.S.  As the upper
trough swings across the west and into the central plains it will
carve out the center of the ridge by Thursday.  This trough will
bring the best chance of rain to the area this week.

Had storms yesterday over much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
as a surface trough helped development.  The surface trough looks to
be farther west this afternoon which will result in fewer storms for
the Permian Basin.  Model qpf keeps most of the precip out west with
an emphasis over SE NM.  Storms over the South Plains this morning
have built back southward into the northern CWA this afternoon.
Also have storms on radar from north of Tatum to Pine Springs to the
Davis Mtns.  Have increased pops slightly tonight across the west.
Only expecting isolated storms tonight over the Permian Basin and
most of the Upper Trans Pecos.  Will have to monitor storm
development for a few strong storms and locally heavy rain... MAF
12Z sounding was unstable with a LI of nearly -6 and a PW of 1.24
inches.  Will highlight in HWO.  Afternoon storms will be mainly
over the mountains again Tuesday.

Overnight temps will remain above normal in the 70s.  Afternoon
temps will be warm with highs in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Models still struggling as to whether or not to bring a
front through with the upper trough.  They do seem to show a Pacific
front Wednesday and Thursday pushing up against the western CWA but
then seem to loose continuity.  The increased clouds and rain cooled
air should be enough to help keep temps a little cooler on Thursday.

Thursday looks to be the best chance of rain this week.  Eta
develops a large swath of precip ahead of a Pacific front by
Thursday from near Presidio... to Midland... to Childress that
pushes east across the area.  Gfs shows similar results but not as
widespread.  Could see precip develop as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening across SE NM ahead of the approaching upper
trough.  Model soundings had been trying to dry out the airmass next
few days but are now pushing PW to near 1.6 inches by Thursday
morning.  Will have to continue to monitor developments for possible
heavy rain event.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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880
FXUS64 KMAF 252246
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show another busy afternoon of convection, mainly over
SE NM under a passing shortwave aloft. KMAF 12Z RAOB and forecast
soundings suggest +RA to be the main threat w/these cells, and
this activity should begin to diminish w/loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/only a weak
LLJ expected overnight. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-7 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day with an upper ridge extending from the Great Lakes
to NM and an upper trough over the Northwest U.S.  As the upper
trough swings across the west and into the central plains it will
carve out the center of the ridge by Thursday.  This trough will
bring the best chance of rain to the area this week.

Had storms yesterday over much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
as a surface trough helped development.  The surface trough looks to
be farther west this afternoon which will result in fewer storms for
the Permian Basin.  Model qpf keeps most of the precip out west with
an emphasis over SE NM.  Storms over the South Plains this morning
have built back southward into the northern CWA this afternoon.
Also have storms on radar from north of Tatum to Pine Springs to the
Davis Mtns.  Have increased pops slightly tonight across the west.
Only expecting isolated storms tonight over the Permian Basin and
most of the Upper Trans Pecos.  Will have to monitor storm
development for a few strong storms and locally heavy rain... MAF
12Z sounding was unstable with a LI of nearly -6 and a PW of 1.24
inches.  Will highlight in HWO.  Afternoon storms will be mainly
over the mountains again Tuesday.

Overnight temps will remain above normal in the 70s.  Afternoon
temps will be warm with highs in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Models still struggling as to whether or not to bring a
front through with the upper trough.  They do seem to show a Pacific
front Wednesday and Thursday pushing up against the western CWA but
then seem to loose continuity.  The increased clouds and rain cooled
air should be enough to help keep temps a little cooler on Thursday.

Thursday looks to be the best chance of rain this week.  Eta
develops a large swath of precip ahead of a Pacific front by
Thursday from near Presidio... to Midland... to Childress that
pushes east across the area.  Gfs shows similar results but not as
widespread.  Could see precip develop as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening across SE NM ahead of the approaching upper
trough.  Model soundings had been trying to dry out the airmass next
few days but are now pushing PW to near 1.6 inches by Thursday
morning.  Will have to continue to monitor developments for possible
heavy rain event.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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373
FXUS64 KMAF 251904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Started the day with an upper ridge extending from the Great Lakes
to NM and an upper trough over the Northwest U.S.  As the upper
trough swings across the west and into the central plains it will
carve out the center of the ridge by Thursday.  This trough will
bring the best chance of rain to the area this week.

Had storms yesterday over much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
as a surface trough helped development.  The surface trough looks to
be farther west this afternoon which will result in fewer storms for
the Permian Basin.  Model qpf keeps most of the precip out west with
an emphasis over SE NM.  Storms over the South Plains this morning
have built back southward into the northern CWA this afternoon.
Also have storms on radar from north of Tatum to Pine Springs to the
Davis Mtns.  Have increased pops slightly tonight across the west.
Only expecting isolated storms tonight over the Permian Basin and
most of the Upper Trans Pecos.  Will have to monitor storm
development for a few strong storms and locally heavy rain... MAF
12Z sounding was unstable with a LI of nearly -6 and a PW of 1.24
inches.  Will highlight in HWO.  Afternoon storms will be mainly
over the mountains again Tuesday.

Overnight temps will remain above normal in the 70s.  Afternoon
temps will be warm with highs in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Models still struggling as to whether or not to bring a
front through with the upper trough.  They do seem to show a Pacific
front Wednesday and Thursday pushing up against the western CWA but
then seem to loose continuity.  The increased clouds and rain cooled
air should be enough to help keep temps a little cooler on Thursday.

Thursday looks to be the best chance of rain this week.  Eta
develops a large swath of precip ahead of a Pacific front by
Thursday from near Presidio... to Midland... to Childress that
pushes east across the area.  Gfs shows similar results but not as
widespread.  Could see precip develop as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening across SE NM ahead of the approaching upper
trough.  Model soundings had been trying to dry out the airmass next
few days but are now pushing PW to near 1.6 inches by Thursday
morning.  Will have to continue to monitor developments for possible
heavy rain event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  96  70  94  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  96  71  94  /  20  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 103  76 101  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  96  72  95  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  89  66  86  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   69  94  68  92  /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   60  88  60  87  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  96  73  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    73 100  73  99  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/72

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839
FXUS64 KMAF 251712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening at TAF locations with KHOB and KCNM having a better chance
for development than other sites. Localized MVFR conditions are
possible in and near thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

The upper ridge over the mid Mississippi River Valley continues
to elongate reaching well into our area. This ridge will shrink as
we head through the upcoming weak as an upper trough digs into the
Rockies. This trough will really not begin to affect the area
until after Wednesday so expect hot temperatures to continue in
the short term.

Showers and even some strong thunderstorms formed yesterday along a
weak sfc trough and an instability axis. This sfc trough looks to be
farther north and west today so storms will be confined mainly to SE
NM, the western PB and the higher terrain of W TX. If this sfc
trough proves to be a little farther south this afternoon, PoPs will
need to be extended south into the PB. Very similar conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The storms will be capable of very
gusty winds and even some small hail.

Large scale models have come into much better agreement regarding
the upcoming pattern change late in the week. The GFS has slowed
down the upper trough coming into the Pacific NW this morning. As
expected yesterday, this now aligns much better with the ECMWF and
CMC. The upper trough will help break down the ridge as it moves
into the Southern Plains by Friday. As it does so, the proximity of
the trough will provide lift and cooler mid level temps which should
produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the area. The best
chance for widespread precip appears to be Thursday and Friday. It
is still unclear whether a front will accompany the trough as most
of the models have a very weak front or not one at all. Nonetheless,
temperatures should cool off late week due to the cloud cover and
rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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464
FXUS64 KMAF 251056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will form over the area this afternoon and evening.
Will include TSRA at KCNM and KHOB, but not elsewhere due to very
low probabilities.  67


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

The upper ridge over the mid Mississippi River Valley continues
to elongate reaching well into our area. This ridge will shrink as
we head through the upcoming weak as an upper trough digs into the
Rockies. This trough will really not begin to affect the area
until after Wednesday so expect hot temperatures to continue in
the short term.

Showers and even some strong thunderstorms formed yesterday along a
weak sfc trough and an instability axis. This sfc trough looks to be
farther north and west today so storms will be confined mainly to SE
NM, the western PB and the higher terrain of W TX. If this sfc
trough proves to be a little farther south this afternoon, PoPs will
need to be extended south into the PB. Very similar conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The storms will be capable of very
gusty winds and even some small hail.

Large scale models have come into much better agreement regarding
the upcoming pattern change late in the week. The GFS has slowed
down the upper trough coming into the Pacific NW this morning. As
expected yesterday, this now aligns much better with the ECMWF and
CMC. The upper trough will help break down the ridge as it moves
into the Southern Plains by Friday. As it does so, the proximity of
the trough will provide lift and cooler mid level temps which should
produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the area. The best
chance for widespread precip appears to be Thursday and Friday. It
is still unclear whether a front will accompany the trough as most
of the models have a very weak front or not one at all. Nonetheless,
temperatures should cool off late week due to the cloud cover and
rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 97  71  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  71  96  71  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 103  77 103  77  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  96  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  66  89  66  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   95  67  94  67  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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918
FXUS64 KMAF 250921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge over the mid Mississippi River Valley continues to
elongate reaching well into our area. This ridge will shrink as we
head through the upcoming weak as an upper trough digs into the
Rockies. This trough will really not begin to affect the area until
after Wednesday so expect hot temperatures to continue in the
short term.

Showers and even some strong thunderstorms formed yesterday along a
weak sfc trough and an instability axis. This sfc trough looks to be
farther north and west today so storms will be confined mainly to SE
NM, the western PB and the higher terrain of W TX. If this sfc
trough proves to be a little farther south this afternoon, PoPs will
need to be extended south into the PB. Very similar conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The storms will be capable of very
gusty winds and even some small hail.

Large scale models have come into much better agreement regarding
the upcoming pattern change late in the week. The GFS has slowed
down the upper trough coming into the Pacific NW this morning. As
expected yesterday, this now aligns much better with the ECMWF and
CMC. The upper trough will help break down the ridge as it moves
into the Southern Plains by Friday. As it does so, the proximity of
the trough will provide lift and cooler mid level temps which should
produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the area. The best
chance for widespread precip appears to be Thursday and Friday. It
is still unclear whether a front will accompany the trough as most
of the models have a very weak front or not one at all. Nonetheless,
temperatures should cool off late week due to the cloud cover and
rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 97  71  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  71  96  71  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 103  77 103  77  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  96  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  66  89  66  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   95  67  94  67  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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766
FXUS64 KMAF 250515
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will pass by KCNM within the next hour. VFR
conditions will prevail areawide thereafter.  Thunderstorms will
develop again Monday afternoon, mainly over southeast New Mexico.
Will carry TSRA at KCNM and KHOB.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014/

The upper ridge centered over the Mississippi valley extends west
across TX and NM and will remain over the region through the week.
An approaching upper trough looks to take the top off the ridge
and it swings east and may result in slightly cooler temps late in
the week.

Models show a weak cold front approaching the CWA late Thursday
/early Friday but latest models not bringing it very far into the
area.  It may briefly make it into the region but does not appear to
be around long enough to bring much cooling.  If rain forms along
the front then could push farther south.

Late afternoon storms mainly over the mountains looks to be a good
bet again today and have started to get a few echos on radar.  Model
qpf keeps storms generally south of the Pecos river.  On Monday qpf
hits SE NM harder with fewer storms over the mtns... and reduced mtns
storms again on Tuesday.  Will keep low pops mainly over the mtns next
few days.

A southerly wind will keep low level moisture good with dewpts in
the 50s and 60s.  MAF sounding had a PW of 1.2 inches this morning
but model soundings indicate will have some drying of the airmass
with PW falling to 1 inch or less.  This could be due to a decrease
in Pacific moisture as the Hurricane off Mexico moves farther out to
see.  Still should have enough moisture for locally heavy rain in
some of the storms as steering winds remain light.

Above average highs are expected the first half of the week with
warm overnight temps.  By the end of the week should have a return
to more normal average highs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/72

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809
FXUS64 KMAF 242238
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show an active afternoon of widespread, unorganized
convection across the area, w/sfc analysis showing a weak sfc
trough oriented SW-NE across the region, and temps pushing the
triple-digits in many locations. This should begin diminishing
shortly, as peak heating has passed. We`ll insert some evening
tempo groups as needed, mainly KMAF/KFST. Otherwise, return flow
continues the next 24 hours. Forecast soundings re-develop a
widespread cu field most locations by late Monday morning, w/bases
7-8 kft agl. Best chances for convection Monday afternoon look to
be invof sfc trough over SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Mississippi valley extends west
across TX and NM and will remain over the region through the week.
An approaching upper trough looks to take the top off the ridge
and it swings east and may result in slightly cooler temps late
in the week.

Models show a weak cold front approaching the CWA late Thursday
/early Friday but latest models not bringing it very far into the
area.  It may briefly make it into the region but does not appear to
be around long enough to bring much cooling.  If rain forms along
the front then could push farther south.

Late afternoon storms mainly over the mountains looks to be a good
bet again today and have started to get a few echos on radar.  Model
qpf keeps storms generally south of the Pecos river.  On Monday qpf
hits SE NM harder with fewer storms over the mtns... and reduced mtns
storms again on Tuesday.  Will keep low pops mainly over the mtns next
few days.

A southerly wind will keep low level moisture good with dewpts in
the 50s and 60s.  MAF sounding had a PW of 1.2 inches this morning
but model soundings indicate will have some drying of the airmass
with PW falling to 1 inch or less.  This could be due to a decrease
in Pacific moisture as the Hurricane off Mexico moves farther out to
see.  Still should have enough moisture for locally heavy rain in
some of the storms as steering winds remain light.

Above average highs are expected the first half of the week with
warm overnight temps.  By the end of the week should have a return
to more normal average highs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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526
FXUS64 KMAF 241846
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
146 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Mississippi valley extends west
across TX and NM and will remain over the region through the week.
An approaching upper trough looks to take the top off the ridge
and it swings east and may result in slightly cooler temps late
in the week.

Models show a weak cold front approaching the CWA late Thursday
/early Friday but latest models not bringing it very far into the
area.  It may briefly make it into the region but does not appear to
be around long enough to bring much cooling.  If rain forms along
the front then could push farther south.

Late afternoon storms mainly over the mountains looks to be a good
bet again today and have started to get a few echos on radar.  Model
qpf keeps storms generally south of the Pecos river.  On Monday qpf
hits SE NM harder with fewer storms over the mtns... and reduced mtns
storms again on Tuesday.  Will keep low pops mainly over the mtns next
few days.

A southerly wind will keep low level moisture good with dewpts in
the 50s and 60s.  MAF sounding had a PW of 1.2 inches this morning
but model soundings indicate will have some drying of the airmass
with PW falling to 1 inch or less.  This could be due to a decrease
in Pacific moisture as the Hurricane off Mexico moves farther out to
see.  Still should have enough moisture for locally heavy rain in
some of the storms as steering winds remain light.

Above average highs are expected the first half of the week with
warm overnight temps.  By the end of the week should have a return
to more normal average highs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  73  97  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  96  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 100  76 100  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  96  71  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  89  66  87  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   68  95  67  93  /  10  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   61  88  60  87  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  97  72  97  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  74  96  73  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/72

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592
FXUS64 KMAF 241728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible at TAF locations this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Surface winds will be gusty
and variable in direction in and near thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail, however TAF locations may briefly
experience MVFR visibilities if thunderstorms do occur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge now centered over Arkansas continues to keep the
heat turned up across most of the South. This along with a weaker
sfc trough led to much less precip over our area on Saturday.
Similar conditions are expected today, however we will have an
instability axis hanging around the Permian Basin. High-res models
along with some of the large scale models develop precip along this
axis. Can`t argue with the performance of these models over the past
few days so will extend isolated PoPs into the PB. With temperatures
in the upper 90s, the sub-cloud layer will be very dry so expect
that these storms will contain very gusty winds.

Rain chances should be confined to the higher terrain and parts of
SE NM after today as the upper ridge remains in control through at
least midweek. This will also keep temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal.

The forecast becomes a bit muddy late in the week as frontal timing
is off between most of the models. The GFS is more progressive with
the upper trough and brings a front down Thursday. The ECMWF and CMC
are slower and deeper with the trough, bringing a front in later.
Will side closer to the ladder as the upper trough becomes detached
from the Polar branch while the strong upper high to our east also
helps to slow the troughs progress east. Either way we should see
a better chance of rain when the front does arrive. Will trend
PoPs higher Thursday and Friday and down Wednesday. Have also
cooled temperatures back to near normal for late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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762
FXUS64 KMAF 241100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The probability of thunderstorms affecting either KCNM or KPEQ this
afternoon/evening is still too low to mention for this forecast
package.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across southeast
New Mexico and west Texas.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge now centered over Arkansas continues to keep the
heat turned up across most of the South. This along with a weaker
sfc trough led to much less precip over our area on Saturday.
Similar conditions are expected today, however we will have an
instability axis hanging around the Permian Basin. High-res models
along with some of the large scale models develop precip along this
axis. Can`t argue with the performance of these models over the past
few days so will extend isolated PoPs into the PB. With temperatures
in the upper 90s, the sub-cloud layer will be very dry so expect
that these storms will contain very gusty winds.

Rain chances should be confined to the higher terrain and parts of
SE NM after today as the upper ridge remains in control through at
least midweek. This will also keep temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal.

The forecast becomes a bit muddy late in the week as frontal timing
is off between most of the models. The GFS is more progressive with
the upper trough and brings a front down Thursday. The ECMWF and CMC
are slower and deeper with the trough, bringing a front in later.
Will side closer to the ladder as the upper trough becomes detached
from the Polar branch while the strong upper high to our east also
helps to slow the troughs progress east. Either way we should see
a better chance of rain when the front does arrive. Will trend
PoPs higher Thursday and Friday and down Wednesday. Have also
cooled temperatures back to near normal for late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                97  72  97  71  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  77 102  77  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  97  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  66  90  66  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  67  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   87  61  88  60  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  74  98  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  74  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  74 100  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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600
FXUS64 KMAF 240930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge now centered over Arkansas continues to keep the
heat turned up across most of the South. This along with a weaker
sfc trough led to much less precip over our area on Saturday.
Similar conditions are expected today, however we will have an
instability axis hanging around the Permian Basin. High-res models
along with some of the large scale models develop precip along this
axis. Can`t argue with the performance of these models over the past
few days so will extend isolated PoPs into the PB. With temperatures
in the upper 90s, the sub-cloud layer will be very dry so expect
that these storms will contain very gusty winds.

Rain chances should be confined to the higher terrain and parts of
SE NM after today as the upper ridge remains in control through at
least midweek. This will also keep temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal.

The forecast becomes a bit muddy late in the week as frontal timing
is off between most of the models. The GFS is more progressive with
the upper trough and brings a front down Thursday. The ECMWF and CMC
are slower and deeper with the trough, bringing a front in later.
Will side closer to the ladder as the upper trough becomes detached
from the Polar branch while the strong upper high to our east also
helps to slow the troughs progress east. Either way we should see
a better chance of rain when the front does arrive. Will trend
PoPs higher Thursday and Friday and down Wednesday. Have also
cooled temperatures back to near normal for late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                97  72  97  71  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  77 102  77  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  97  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  66  90  66  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  67  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   87  61  88  60  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  74  98  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  74  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  74 100  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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803
FXUS64 KMAF 240456
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas tonight and Sunday.  Thunderstorms will develop Sunday
afternoon and evening, and have the best chance of affecting KCNM
and KPEQ.  Will not include any mention of TSRA in the current
TAFs, but thunderstorms may be added on later issuances.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

West Texas remains on the western periphery of an upper high
centered over the Mississippi River valley. This will allow
convection to develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and
move north into southeast New Mexico, a pattern which will repeat
for the next several days. High temperatures will remain slightly
above normal and it will be very tough to beat guidance through
next Wednesday.

An upper trough currently over the northwestern U.S. will slowly
move east through early next week reaching the Central Plains by
Thursday. There is more disagreement with the strength and timing
of this system from yesterday with the ECMWF and Canadian models
deeper and slower than the GFS. Do not like the fact that the
ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough yet weaker with the surface
front so the battle is mainly between the Canadian and GFS right
now. All models have slowed the front down from yesterday
perhaps indicating a deeper upper trough may be the best solution.
Hopefully that will be true as it would give us better rain
chances but with so much uncertainty will keep PoPs at slight
chance for now. A stronger front as well as clouds and precip
would no doubt give us a nice cold pool at the surface so any
increase in PoPs will likely mean a need to lower forecast highs
for Thu/Fri. A return of ridging next weekend will bring more
warmer temps.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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533
FXUS64 KMAF 240300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection has died out across the area w/loss of
daytime heating, w/mesoanalysis showing a cap rapidly developing.
We`ll do a quick update to remove convection from the grids, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have some isolated convection
near the Davis Mountains and just south of CNM. Not expecting
activity to affect terminals but will continue to monitor trends
and amend if/when needed. Otherwise, expect light southerly winds
to continue overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas remains on the western periphery of an upper high
centered over the Mississippi River valley. This will allow
convection to develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and
move north into southeast New Mexico, a pattern which will repeat
for the next several days. High temperatures will remain slightly
above normal and it will be very tough to beat guidance through
next Wednesday.

An upper trough currently over the northwestern U.S. will slowly
move east through early next week reaching the Central Plains by
Thursday. There is more disagreement with the strength and timing
of this system from yesterday with the ECMWF and Canadian models
deeper and slower than the GFS. Do not like the fact that the
ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough yet weaker with the surface
front so the battle is mainly between the Canadian and GFS right
now. All models have slowed the front down from yesterday
perhaps indicating a deeper upper trough may be the best solution.
Hopefully that will be true as it would give us better rain
chances but with so much uncertainty will keep PoPs at slight
chance for now. A stronger front as well as clouds and precip
would no doubt give us a nice cold pool at the surface so any
increase in PoPs will likely mean a need to lower forecast highs
for Thu/Fri. A return of ridging next weekend will bring more
warmer temps.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72  95  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  97  73  96  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70  97  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  97  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  97  72  96  /   0  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  88  66  87  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  95  69  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  89  63  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  96  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  73  97  73  95  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44

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