Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 240306

1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014


Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/


VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/


Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/


Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.


A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.


ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0


     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.



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