Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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243
FXUS64 KMAF 131022
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A long wave trough moving over the Great Basin this morning will
swing across AZ/NM this afternoon and evening and bring a chance
of rain to the region.  The trough will push into SE NM/W TX by
early Sunday and swing over the Central Plains by evening.  As this
trough passes on to the east high pressure will build in behind it.
A second and weaker trough will swing into the area midweek with
another shot at rain.

The lower levels have been very moist this week with low clouds and
fog over much of the area every day.  Low clouds should spread
across the Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos by
sunrise.  Have fog in the grid this morning for most of the area but
the lowest visibilites have been over SE NM.  High clouds drifting
in from the west have disrupted some of the development of low
clouds this morning.  Expect low clouds to return over the eastern CWA
again tonight but these should quickly be blown east early Sunday
when a Pacific front sweeps across the area.  Pac front will have a
gusty west wind in its wake... could result in a high wind event in
the Guadalupe Mountains.  Eta cross sections over the Guadalupes
show a mountain wave couplet trying to set up early Sunday.  Latest
guidance has backed off speeds so will monitor for now.

With the sun breaking out yesterday temperatures climbed into the
60s and 70s.  Based on yesterdays highs and with warm 850mb temps
expect another warm day today.  Have raised temps for many locations
today going over guidance.  Tomorrow expect more cooling behind the
front than models are developing so have gone slightly under.  A weak
polar front will move through Monday as the surface ridge builds
south across the area... but by Tuesday this ridge slides east as SE
flow returns ahead of the next system.

Chance of storms starts tonight as good lift from approaching upper
trough meets with a warm and moist airmass. Could see a few storms
linger over the east Sunday due to convergence along the front.  Next
shot of rain looks to be Wednesday and Thursday.  Currently 2014
is the 7th driest year on record for MAF with the year winding down
will take some good rain over the next couple of weeks to knock
us out of the top 10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  46  62  36  /  10  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  52  62  39  /  10  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  40  65  33  /  10  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  53  71  38  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  46  64  37  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  36  52  36  /  10  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   71  43  61  35  /  10  30  10   0
MARFA TX                   71  34  60  26  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  49  63  36  /  10  30  10   0
ODESSA TX                  70  49  64  37  /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    74  46  65  36  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72

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