Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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128
FXUS64 KMAF 231705
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Winds will be west
to northwest at generally 5 to 10 knots.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to expire the Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Permian
Basin. Tweaked high temperatures downward a few degrees due to
snow cover. Tweaked pop and sky grids.

updated products to be sent shortly.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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