Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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876
FXUS64 KMAF 271140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
540 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Post frontal conditions this morning with a steady N wind. Have an
area of rain/snow over the Trans Pecos and SE NM drifting east.
HOB can expect the most snow. VFR Conditions ahead of the precip
and low clouds will generally fall to MVFR with localized IFR/LIFR
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm system across the Rockies is combining
with a cold front to produce rain and snow today across southeast
New Mexico and west Texas. Forecast soundings and recent
observations suggest the precipitation will be primarily in the
form of snow across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and much of the northern Permian
Basin. QPF forecasts of .10 to .20 liquid equivalent point to up
to 2 inches of snow possible in the aforementioned areas so will
issue a Winter Weather Advisory today for those areas. Adjacent
to the advisory area, there is expected to be a mix of snow and
rain with a dusting of snow accumulation possible. With strong
cold air advection and cloudy skies expected today, temperatures
will struggle to climb much today from current values.

The upper level storm system is forecast to continue to push
east, southeast tonight into southwest Texas with the best
forcing shifting to south of the Pecos River in west Texas. With
continued low level cold air advection continuing, expecting a
good chance of rain and snow south of the Pecos River to the Rio
Grande River. Some of the guidance is suggesting a few inches of
snow will be possible in the mountains and Trans Pecos. The day
shift will need to monitor for possible advisories or warnings
tonight.

The upper trough is forecast to finally be east of the region
by Sunday through Monday with zonal flow aloft taking its place.
Looking for a rebound in high temperatures both Sunday and
Monday, approaching near normal values by Monday, as a surface lee
trough develops.

An amplifying upper level low is forecast to dig slowly south
and then southeast across the western States for much of next
week as another cold front plunges through the forecast area
Monday night. Much below normal temperatures are expected behind
this front Tuesday through New Years day as surface high pressure
builds into the area. In addition the aforementioned upper low
will slowly approach through next week and bring with it periodic
chances of light precipitation, some of which could be in the form
of light snow Tuesday through New Years day. Temperatures are
expected to moderate by next Friday so any precipitation
should be in the liquid form.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 2 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Martin...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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