Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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948
FXUS64 KMAF 131141
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Virga showers will continue to cause localized gusty winds at KMAF
and KPEQ through 14z; have included a TEMPO group to account for
this as they push east with an upper level disturbance. South to
southwesterly winds will increase mid-morning and remain gusty
through sunset. Expect mid and high clouds to clear out mid-morning
as well. Clearing line currently noted on satellite (as of 1130z)
along a Lubbock-Hobbs-Van Horn line. VFR conditions will prevail
through the majority of the TAF period until a strong cold front
moves south across TAF sites between 07 and 11z, causing a gusty
wind shift to the north. Blowing dust will also accompany the front;
have introduced this into northern TAF sites and will let later
shifts adjust as necessary. An MVFR stratus deck will follow behind
the front towards after 09z and likely impact all sites except KFST
and KPEQ by 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a shortwave trough will move over the area today
with a stronger trough swinging across NM and TX on Monday.  This
will push a strong front through the area late tonight and bring a
significant change in wx to W TX and SE NM.  After that an upper ridge
builds in from the west for a few days before another upper trough
swings across the region Thursday.

At the surface will have a strong cold front blow through the area
tonight bringing unseasonably cold temperatures to the region.  Some
locations along and north of the Pecos River may see a light freeze
Tuesday morning.  Will issue an SPS discussing possible late season
freeze.  Another cold front blows through the area Thursday but will
not be as strong.

Temperatures... overnight temperatures have been unusually high as
wind and clouds have not allowed temps to drop.  Will have another
day of above normal highs today with readings in the 80s and lower
90s.  The front tonight will drive lows into the 40s with a few 30s
north.  Monday will be much cooler with highs only in the 50s north
and 60s south.  The front will have strong cold air advection with
it.  Overnight will have clearing skies along with the wind becoming
light.  This will result in Tuesday being the coldest morning in
nearly a month with lows in the 30s and some locations falling to
near freezing or below.  Readings Tuesday warm back into the 60s and
70s with temperatures continuing to climb the next few days.

WIND... very gusty winds continued into the night time hours due to
a tight pressure gradient from a surface low over the panhandle with
a trough extending southward across the area.  Also had some high
based showers moving over the area producing virga and locally
increased wind gusts.  Will have a west to southwest wind today
across the area... may increase above 30 mph across parts of the
west.  Have a Wind advisory for Culberson... Reeves... and Jeff
Davis counties today.  Have issued a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes Mountains today and extended it through tomorrow replacing
the High Wind Watch.  When the front hits tonight a strong north
wind will spread southward across the area.  Models show the front
has a very tight packing of isobars behind it indicating a very
tight pressure gradient.  Expect the front to be moving into the
northern CWA around midnight and quickly push to the Rio Grand by
12z Monday.  Have issued a Wind Advisory tonight for most locations
north of the Pecos River.  Expect blowing dust over most of the
area tonight.  The wind comes back around to the south Tuesday as a
warm up begins. Another cold front comes through Thursday but will
not be as strong as the one tonight.

Rain... may have some lingering high based showers today over the
south but with no measurable rain expected will leave mention out
of the forecast.  Have a dry forecast through next weekend although
long range guidance/qpf does try to develop some precip next
Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds will continue to push very dry air across
the region today. As the pressure gradient associated with a surface
low (located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as of 08z)
tightens mid-morning, 20 ft wind speeds will increase to around
20-30 MPH. Decreasing cloud cover today will also allow stronger
wind speeds to mix to the surface, with stronger gusts up to 35 MPH
possible. Minimum RHs will fall to less than 10 percent today west
of a dry line that will mix well east of the forecast area by late
afternoon (roughly to a Breckenridge-San Angelo-Langtry line). A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for all of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico through 12 AM CDT/11 PM MDT. A strong cold front will push
south across the area late tonight and mitigate fire weather
concerns through the beginning of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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