Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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200
FXUS64 KMAF 100445
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1045 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge over the region this afternoon will flatten, head
east tonight and Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs traverse
the southwester/central CONUS.  Although there will be periodic
bouts of high cloud coverage, lift associated with these waves will
be too far north for any precipitation through Thursday.  What this
pattern will promote is near record to record high temperatures, dry
conditions and enough wind in the mountains for high wind concerns.
Will not fiddle around with the Guadalupe Mountains, that is, will
go ahead and issue a High Wind Warning starting tonight, which will
last through Wednesday night. Think high winds could occur as early
as tonight in the higher elevations, which could develop in the
lower elevations during the day Tuesday, and again Wednesday during
the day.  There could be a break in the higher winds, but it appears
they will be sporadic in both the higher and lower elevations for an
extended period of time.

A low level thermal ridge expanding over the CWA this afternoon will
be dampened somewhat Tuesday due to a passing shortwave trough,
before making a comeback Wednesday areawide.  Despite the dip in h85
temps and influx of high clouds Tuesday, think west to northwest
downslope winds will make the difference as far as temperatures
warming to near record or record levels.  Considering surface winds
will be in the 15 to 20 mph range at times, there will be fire
weather concerns.  More details for fire weather is contained in the
discussion below.

By Thursday, heights/thicknesses will begin to fall ahead of an
upper trough deepening over the southwestern CONUS.  It appears
this will mitigate most of the fire weather concerns with a little
cooler temperatures, and high winds in the mountains.  But the focus
of the forecast will then turn to the arrival of a cold front and
precipitation chances increasing ahead of, and possibly under, a
cutoff upper low.  Differences still abound with the handling of
both synoptic features, so will leave fairly high PoPs and the
possibility of wintry precipitation going in the forecast Friday
night through Saturday night, and perhaps Sunday if some of the
slower solutions come about.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  78  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  53  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  68  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  76  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  42  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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