Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
679
FXUS64 KMAF 170521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will remain elevated out of the southeast, and could gust to
around 20kt at times, with higher gusts to around 25kt possible
for MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge is centered over southern New Mexico/Arizona this
afternoon but will weaken with the center migrating to the southern
U.S. Plains over the next couple of days.  The flow aloft around the
transitioning upper ridge will be northeasterly over the region
today, then east/southeasterly during the upcoming week.  Models
vary in where the upper ridge sets up shop next weekend and beyond.

Thunderstorms will be harder to come by under the easterly upper
flow regime through next week with the higher terrain of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico being the favored area any given day.
An outflow boundary moved south through the Permian Basin this
morning and is difficult to discern on radar or satellite imagery
early this afternoon.  Will continue the trend of little to no
chance of rain over the forecast area through the extended.  The
only way this will change is if the models are incorrect in the
treatment of the upper ridge, or a weak mid level feature which is
not well resolved by models aids in triggering convection.  Time
will tell.

The better news is temperatures will not be as hot as most of July
has been, but will still be a few degrees above normal most places.
Record temperatures do not appear to be attainable through the next
seven days, and we can hope it stays that way through the rest of
the month.  At this time, extended models are favoring this
scenario.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71 101  71  97 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         76  98  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  90  67  88 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  91  61  89 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  97  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 100  74  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.