Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
082
FXUS64 KMAF 240536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue off and on throughout the night. Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop invof KMAF around sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Convective temps should be
achieved around noon, spawning a widespread cu field w/bases 2.8-7
kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  93  68 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       90  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         93  71  94  72 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  90  67  91  68 /  50  40  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  78  61 /  30  10  50  50
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  30  40  40  40
Marfa                          83  59  81  61 /  50  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  91  68 /  30  40  20  10
Odessa                         88  68  90  68 /  40  40  20  20
Wink                           90  69  92  69 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.