Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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726
FXUS64 KMAF 210553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ has redeveloped tonight, although a bit
weaker than last night, w/~25 kts of return flow overhead. This
return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a stronger LLJ forecast
to redevelop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest wil have the best chances later today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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