Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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095
FXUS64 KMAF 291724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms for CNM this afternoon through
tonight. Winds will become elevated with some gusts out of the
southeast this afternoon before weakening late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
First period pops.

DISCUSSION...
Expected nocturnal storms to die out by sunrise but these are
continuing over the far west down to the Big Bend. Have updated
forecast to begin storms earlier.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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