Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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384
FXUS64 KMAF 301118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue spreading across the area and are
expected to dissipate around 16z. Winds are expected to mostly be
out of the south to southeast during the period. There is a chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but probabilities are
not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved inland to the CA/AZ
border over the last 24 hours, leaving West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico under continued SW flow aloft.  Latest sfc observations have
the dryline backed up against the mtns again, w/dewpoints better
than 50F everywhere.  Area radars show last night`s MCS still going
strong over Central Texas, and the cold pool it sent thru KMAF
earlier continues to work its way south attm. This will play hob
w/temps and instability today, rendering current model guidance
somewhat moot.  In addition, cloud cover yesterday limited
temps/convection, and may do so again today. That said, the best
focus for convection today will be the dryline and the boundary
that moved thru here earlier.  Forecast soundings continue to show
afternoon capes east of the dryline in excess of 2500J/kg, w/mid-lvl
LRs of 7C/km or better throughout the FA, suggestive of a continuing
large threat.  High cloud bases and dcapes above 1000J/kg will keep
a wind threat in play, as well.  0-6km shear doesn`t look quite as
impressive as yesterday, but a severe storm or two can`t be ruled
out, and we`ll leave a mention in the grids.

The upper trough is forecast to move south of the AZ border by
Tuesday afternoon, creep thru nrn Sonora/Chihuahua Wednesday, and
pass thru West Texas Thursday.  This will continue a chance of
convection along and east of the dryline daily thru then, w/forecast
soundings yielding similar parameters for severe wx daily as those
mentioned above, i.e., large hail/damaging winds.  However, we`ll
restrict a mention of this to the HWO beyond today.  Temperatures
should stay close to normal today and Tuesday, but should come down
significantly Wednesday/Thursday w/the arrival of a cold front
Tuesday night and decreasing thicknesses w/the approach of the
trough.  Beyond Thursday, the trough is forecast to open and stall
over the Texas Gulf Coast, preventing ridging from building into our
area and keeping temps 5-10 degrees below normal.

Finally, the dryline may move far enough east Tuesday afternoon to
expose the Guadalupes to a few hours of critical fire wx
conditions, and we`ll issue a watch for then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  68  90  66 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       92  61  92  58 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  69  88  67 /  40  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  65  92  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  62  84  59 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  61  91  57 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          82  53  84  51 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  66  91  63 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                         90  66  91  65 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                           92  66  94  63 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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