Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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540
FXUS64 KMAF 271915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Northeast to east mid level flow between an upper level ridge near
the Four Corners Region and a weak inverted trough across east
Texas will continue through Thursday. Weak disturbances embedded
within this flow, combined with old thunderstorm outflow
boundaries and intense heating (upslope flow) will trigger mainly
diurnal driven thunderstorms through Thursday. Pinpointing favored
areas for thunderstorm initiation in this weakly forced
environment is challenging, so will continue to mention isolated
to widely scattered storms areawide. The main threats with these
storms will continue to be brief gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall. High temperatures will cool slightly Thursday to more
normal values under deep easterly flow.

Beyond Thursday through the weekend, deep easterly flow aloft
will continue between an upper level ridge centered in the
southern Rockies and a westward moving disturbance in central
Mexico. Very intense heating and upslope flow should spark, mainly
diurnally driven, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in
and near the mountains. High temperatures are expected to warm
again to above normal values as 850 millibar temperatures warm a
couple of degrees, despite the easterly flow.

For Monday through next Wednesday guidance consensus is
indicating that the upper level ridge will shift eastward toward
the Plains and Mississippi Valley Region. This should allow
temperatures to remain above normal with the best chance of
convection across western areas from the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains eastward to the southeast New Plains and upper Trans
Pecos Region of west Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       73  98  72  96 /  20  20  10   0
Dryden                         75  93  77  96 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  93  74  95 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  87  68  88 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          69  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          65  86  65  88 /  20  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  95  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         74  94  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           74  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12
204
FXUS64 KMAF 271657
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1157 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will remain under the
influence of weak upper level disturbances. When combined with
daytime heating and an anomalously moist airmass, scattered
thunderstorms are expected. Outside of the mountains, it`s hard
to tell right now where the best chances for development will be.
As such, we`ve not added a TEMPO group at any terminal this
afternoon and will amend once the picture becomes clearer. Right
now will have to say that the northeastern Permian Basin and
southeastern New Mexico will have the best chances for thunder
this afternoon. Otherwise expect scattered 050-060 this afternoon
with light southeasterly winds. Away from thunderstorms, VFR
conditions are expected through 28/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light southeast winds and VFR conditions expected through the
period. There will be scattered TS developing 18-00Z which could
affect some TAF sites but coverage will be too sparse to mention
in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
West TX and SE NM will remain under fairly weak NE flow aloft with
an upper ridge centered to the NW and an inverted trough to the
east. Much like Tuesday, will likely have several outflow boundaries
lingering across the area this afternoon (thanks to previous day
convection) and may serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
with daytime heating. In addition, easterly upslope winds at the
surface should aid in generating storms near the higher terrain
regions. Pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is too
difficult at this time so will continue to mention isolated to
scattered storms possible anywhere across the area today. Once
again, the main threats with any storm will be gusty winds and
frequent lightning however an isolated severe wind gust (58+ mph)
will be possible. High temperatures near or slightly above normal
today with afternoon readings expected to be in the mid to upper 90s
most locations.

Thursday will be much like today however thunderstorm chances are
slightly lower and look to be confined to maybe the higher terrain
regions. Rain chances decrease Friday and remain nil for most
locations through the weekend as weak upper ridging builds east back
over the region although we could still see a few storms in the
mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit warmer during this
time with highs in the upper 90s to near or above 100 through the
weekend and beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       96  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         96  75  96  77 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  95  72  94  74 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  69  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
Hobbs                          93  69  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          89  65  88  65 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         96  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12/70
439
FXUS64 KMAF 271135
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light southeast winds and VFR conditions expected through the
period. There will be scattered TS developing 18-00Z which could
affect some TAF sites but coverage will be too sparse to mention
in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
West TX and SE NM will remain under fairly weak NE flow aloft with
an upper ridge centered to the NW and an inverted trough to the
east. Much like Tuesday, will likely have several outflow boundaries
lingering across the area this afternoon (thanks to previous day
convection) and may serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
with daytime heating. In addition, easterly upslope winds at the
surface should aid in generating storms near the higher terrain
regions. Pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is too
difficult at this time so will continue to mention isolated to
scattered storms possible anywhere across the area today. Once
again, the main threats with any storm will be gusty winds and
frequent lightning however an isolated severe wind gust (58+ mph)
will be possible. High temperatures near or slightly above normal
today with afternoon readings expected to be in the mid to upper 90s
most locations.

Thursday will be much like today however thunderstorm chances are
slightly lower and look to be confined to maybe the higher terrain
regions. Rain chances decrease Friday and remain nil for most
locations through the weekend as weak upper ridging builds east back
over the region although we could still see a few storms in the
mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit warmer during this
time with highs in the upper 90s to near or above 100 through the
weekend and beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       96  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         96  75  96  77 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  95  72  94  74 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  69  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
Hobbs                          93  69  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          89  65  88  65 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         96  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
824
FXUS64 KMAF 270816
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
West TX and SE NM will remain under fairly weak NE flow aloft with
an upper ridge centered to the NW and an inverted trough to the
east. Much like Tuesday, will likely have several outflow boundaries
lingering across the area this afternoon (thanks to previous day
convection) and may serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
with daytime heating. In addition, easterly upslope winds at the
surface should aid in generating storms near the higher terrain
regions. Pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is too
difficult at this time so will continue to mention isolated to
scattered storms possible anywhere across the area today. Once
again, the main threats with any storm will be gusty winds and
frequent lightning however an isolated severe wind gust (58+ mph)
will be possible. High temperatures near or slightly above normal
today with afternoon readings expected to be in the mid to upper 90s
most locations.

Thursday will be much like today however thunderstorm chances are
slightly lower and look to be confined to maybe the higher terrain
regions. Rain chances decrease Friday and remain nil for most
locations through the weekend as weak upper ridging builds east back
over the region although we could still see a few storms in the
mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit warmer during this
time with highs in the upper 90s to near or above 100 through the
weekend and beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       96  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         96  75  96  77 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  95  72  94  74 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  69  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
Hobbs                          93  69  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          89  65  88  65 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         96  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
528
FXUS64 KMAF 270528
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS has diminished across the area. VFR conditions and light
southeast winds expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing over the CWA moving
generally south. Outflow boundaries from last nights convection
in the Panhandle and Northeast New Mexico Plains is helping serve
as a focus. This will be the theme for the next few days.

Water Vapor Imagery and High Density Winds shows that the
subtropical ridge is basically split in two...with one center over
the Great Basin and the other center over the Southeast US Coast.
There is a weak inverted trof over East TX basically trapped
between the two ridge centers. In this scenario...which shows
little change thru at least Thursday night...there will be
isolated/scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. The highest
probability will be in the higher terrain with upslope flow and
intense heating. But have widespread isolated pops everywhere else
due to boundaries which won`t mix out in the nearly homogeneous
atmosphere and are notoriously hard to predict. Temperatures will
be near to a degree or two above normal.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week the ridge
center over the Great basin will build east thru the Southern
Plains with the deep layer flow becoming east to northeast. With
the deep layer east to northeast flow there will be good
upslope flow...mainly in the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mtns where
the best chance of convection will be. High temps will once again
be above normal (the theme for July, 2016!) with temps
approaching 100 in the Permian Basin and 100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  95  77  96 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       74  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   0
Dryden                         77  97  79  96 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  87  70  88 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          65  88  65  89 /  20  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  95  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           76  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
394
FXUS64 KMAF 262329
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms are across the area are still close enough to
MAF to include a TEMPO TSRA group til 03Z. Outflow dominated
storms could produce local strong winds. Otherwise short term
convective trends are down at other sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing over the CWA moving
generally south. Outflow boundaries from last nights convection
in the Panhandle and Northeast New Mexico Plains is helping serve
as a focus. This will be the theme for the next few days.

Water Vapor Imagery and High Density Winds shows that the
subtropical ridge is basically split in two...with one center over
the Great Basin and the other center over the Southeast US Coast.
There is a weak inverted trof over East TX basically trapped
between the two ridge centers. In this scenario...which shows
little change thru at least Thursday night...there will be
isolated/scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. The highest
probability will be in the higher terrain with upslope flow and
intense heating. But have widespread isolated pops everywhere else
due to boundaries which won`t mix out in the nearly homogeneous
atmosphere and are notoriously hard to predict. Temperatures will
be near to a degree or two above normal.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week the ridge
center over the Great basin will build east thru the Southern
Plains with the deep layer flow becoming east to northeast. With
the deep layer east to northeast flow there will be good
upslope flow...mainly in the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mtns where
the best chance of convection will be. High temps will once again
be above normal (the theme for July, 2016!) with temps
approaching 100 in the Permian Basin and 100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  97  77  95 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       76  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  97  77  97 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  76  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  70  87 /  30  20  20  20
Hobbs                          72  95  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                          68  88  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           76  97  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  96  76  95 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           77  98  76  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
505
FXUS64 KMAF 261944
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing over the CWA moving
generally south. Outflow boundaries from last nights convection
in the Panhandle and Northeast New Mexico Plains is helping serve
as a focus. This will be the theme for the next few days.

Water Vapor Imagery and High Density Winds shows that the
subtropical ridge is basically split in two...with one center over
the Great Basin and the other center over the Southeast US Coast.
There is a weak inverted trof over East TX basically trapped
between the two ridge centers. In this scenario...which shows
little change thru at least Thursday night...there will be
isolated/scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. The highest
probability will be in the higher terrain with upslope flow and
intense heating. But have widespread isolated pops everywhere else
due to boundaries which won`t mix out in the nearly homogeneous
atmosphere and are notoriously hard to predict. Temperatures will
be near to a degree or two above normal.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week the ridge
center over the Great basin will build east thru the Southern
Plains with the deep layer flow becoming east to northeast. With
the deep layer east to northeast flow there will be good
upslope flow...mainly in the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mtns where
the best chance of convection will be. High temps will once again
be above normal (the theme for July, 2016!) with temps
approaching 100 in the Permian Basin and 100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  97  77  95 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       76  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  97  77  97 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  76  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  70  87 /  30  20  20  20
Hobbs                          72  95  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                          68  88  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           76  97  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  96  76  95 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           77  98  76  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
066
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms across southeast
New Mexico and the western half of west Texas mainly this
afternoon and this evening. Confidence was high enough to include
a tempo group for VFR conditions in thunderstorms with gusty and
variable winds late this afternoon through much of this evening
for KCNM, KHOB, KINK, and KPEQ. Will continue to monitor. Winds
will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph through
tonight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 910 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Quick update to add isolated showers and thunderstorms across much
of the Permian Basin and portions of the southeast New Mexico
plains this morning per latest trends.

No other changes. Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today and
tonight.  Will leave mention of TSRA out of all area sites since
the probability is too low.  This may change later today when
conditions are more certain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
757
FXUS64 KMAF 261410 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
910 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to add isolated showers and thunderstorms across much
of the Permian Basin and portions of the southeast New Mexico
plains this morning per latest trends.

No other changes. Updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today and
tonight.  Will leave mention of TSRA out of all area sites since
the probability is too low.  This may change later today when
conditions are more certain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
852
FXUS64 KMAF 261101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today and
tonight.  Will leave mention of TSRA out of all area sites since
the probability is too low.  This may change later today when
conditions are more certain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
637
FXUS64 KMAF 260831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

There is an outflow boundary moving into the northwestern CWA this
morning with a few showers developing just to its north...and this
highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several
days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher
elevations, but other convection will form along outflow
boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more
than a few hours in advance. Therefore will continue to blanket
low PoPs across the area through Thursday then decrease into the
weekend. However the upper high will remain weak through the next
seven days, and with increasing temperatures by the weekend there
could be isolated to widely scattered storms beyond what is
currently in the forecast.

Models are in pretty good agreement that "cooler" air will be
advecting into the area with highs finally dropping below 100
again. Am a little skeptical that high temps will be as low as
guidance is showing some stations the next couple of days so
generally went near or slightly above MOS through the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       96  73  98  72 /  40  30  30  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  67  85  67 /  40  30  30  20
Hobbs                          93  69  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  66  87  64 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         97  72  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           98  74  96  73 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/10
696
FXUS64 KMAF 260517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An outflow boundary will move south through all area terminals
tonight with northerly winds behind it.  Initially, winds will be
gusty behind it and should affect KCNM and KHOB around 26/06Z, and
KFST by 26/11Z.  Think thunderstorms could develop along/behind the
boundary and affect KCNM and KHOB through 26/08Z.  Storms affecting
any other terminals will be much more speculative, so will monitor.
Thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon, but will likely
add a mention at sites potentially affected in the next issuance.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  94  74  92 /  20  20  30  30
Carlsbad                       73  96  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         76  97  76  95 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  72  94  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  89  68  86 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                          70  91  67  92 /  20  20  30  20
Marfa                          62  87  61  87 /  20  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
Odessa                         74  94  73  93 /  20  20  30  20
Wink                           73  97  73  95 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
033
FXUS64 KMAF 252314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There are few cells around the PB/SE NM, but are not expected to
impact TAF sites. Otherwise E-SE wind overnight less than 10kts.
SHRA/TSRA will be a little more favored later Tue PM but there is
too much uncertainty ATTP to include in TAFs, PROB30 groups may
eventually be needed though.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity moving southwest into the
northern tier of counties in the CWA.

Looks like the models do not have a good (or any) handle on the
convection moving southwest into the CWA. There was convection
last night to the north...the outflow boundary looks like it moved
south and is serving as the focus for the convective development.

A weak inverted trough will get trapped between two centers of the
subtropical ridge. One piece of the ridge will become centered
over Southern Nevada and the other piece will be along the
Southeast US Coast. Whereas the models are having difficulty with
the details including any boundaries from convection it looks like
the whole CWA will have the possibility of isolated/scattered
convection right thru Thursday. Temps will "cool" to near normal
for a change.

The ridge will begin to reassert itself starting Friday and
continuing thru the weekend. This will confine any thunderstorm
activity to the higher terrain to the south and west in upslope
flow and intense heating. Temps will also edge up to above normal
values by next weekend.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  92  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       73  97  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  95  76  97 /  10  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  94  72  94 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          69  93  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
Marfa                          63  89  62  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
Odessa                         77  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           76  97  73  97 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
320
FXUS64 KMAF 252001
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
301 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity moving southwest into the
northern tier of counties in the CWA.

Looks like the models do not have a good (or any) handle on the
convection moving southwest into the CWA. There was convection
last night to the north...the outflow boundary looks like it moved
south and is serving as the focus for the convective development.

A weak inverted trough will get trapped between two centers of the
subtropical ridge. One piece of the ridge will become centered
over Southern Nevada and the other piece will be along the
Southeast US Coast. Whereas the models are having difficulty with
the details including any boundaries from convection it looks like
the whole CWA will have the possibility of isolated/scattered
convection right thru Thursday. Temps will "cool" to near normal
for a change.

The ridge will begin to reassert itself starting Friday and
continuing thru the weekend. This will confine any thunderstorm
activity to the higher terrain to the south and west in upslope
flow and intense heating. Temps will also edge up to above normal
values by next weekend.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  92  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       73  97  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  95  76  97 /  10  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  94  72  94 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          69  93  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
Marfa                          63  89  62  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
Odessa                         77  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           76  97  73  97 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
306
FXUS64 KMAF 251700
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms may move
into southeast New Mexico this afternoon and this evening but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals.
Winds will generally be easterly at 5 to 15 mph with an occasional
higher gust, especially this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A few thunderstorms will remain west of all area terminals early
this morning, but isolated storms will be possible again this
afternoon and evening. Since the probability of storms affecting
any terminals is low, will not make mention in any of the
forecasts.  VFR conditions will prevail otherwise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

Changes are on the way, but first we`ve got to get through one
more hot day. The upper ridge, currently centered over northern
New Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This
will allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast
and influence our weather the next several days.

Temperatures near 100 can be expected again today with an isolated
storm possible almost anywhere as mid level moisture begins to
increase. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday
bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures
through the end of the week. Highs will likely stay near normal
while we see scattered showers and storms develop each afternoon.
Some of the storms may contain localized heavy rain as PWATs
increase over 1". Some models show the trough stalling over Texas
into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level
ridges. Will continue to watch the forecast trends and keep low
PoPs in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  92  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       74  97  73  93 /  20  20  20  30
Dryden                         78  95  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
Fort Stockton                  74  94  73  93 /  10  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 69  88  68  86 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                          70  93  70  89 /  20  30  20  30
Marfa                          62  89  60  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  95  72  94 /  10  30  20  30
Odessa                         76  94  73  93 /  10  30  20  30
Wink                           74  97  73  95 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
540
FXUS64 KMAF 251051
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few thunderstorms will remain west of all area terminals early
this morning, but isolated storms will be possible again this
afternoon and evening. Since the probability of storms affecting
any terminals is low, will not make mention in any of the
forecasts.  VFR conditions will prevail otherwise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

Changes are on the way, but first we`ve got to get through one
more hot day. The upper ridge, currently centered over northern
New Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This
will allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast
and influence our weather the next several days.

Temperatures near 100 can be expected again today with an isolated
storm possible almost anywhere as mid level moisture begins to
increase. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday
bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures
through the end of the week. Highs will likely stay near normal
while we see scattered showers and storms develop each afternoon.
Some of the storms may contain localized heavy rain as PWATs
increase over 1". Some models show the trough stalling over Texas
into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level
ridges. Will continue to watch the forecast trends and keep low
PoPs in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74  92  71 /  10  20  30  20
Carlsbad                      101  74  97  73 /  10  20  20  20
Dryden                        101  78  95  75 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  99  74  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  69  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          97  70  93  70 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          93  62  89  60 /  10  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           99  74  95  72 /  10  10  30  20
Odessa                         99  76  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Wink                          101  74  97  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
727
FXUS64 KMAF 250805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Changes are on the way, but first we`ve got to get through one more
hot day. The upper ridge, currently centered over northern New
Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This will
allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast and
influence our weather the next several days.

Temperatures near 100 can be expected again today with an isolated
storm possible almost anywhere as mid level moisture begins to
increase. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday
bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures
through the end of the week. Highs will likely stay near normal
while we see scattered showers and storms develop each afternoon.
Some of the storms may contain localized heavy rain as PWATs
increase over 1". Some models show the trough stalling over Texas
into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level
ridges. Will continue to watch the forecast trends and keep low
PoPs in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74  92  71 /  10  20  30  20
Carlsbad                      101  74  97  73 /  10  20  20  20
Dryden                        101  78  95  75 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  99  74  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  69  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          97  70  93  70 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          93  62  89  60 /  10  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           99  74  95  72 /  10  10  30  20
Odessa                         99  76  94  73 /  10  10  30  20
Wink                          101  74  97  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
818
FXUS64 KMAF 250438
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today and tonight.  Isolated
thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon, but probability is
too low to include at any terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  99  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         79 101  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  75  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 72  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          71  96  71  92 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          67  93  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         78  98  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           78 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
791
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail, with only a few gusts from the SE
near 20kts at FST, INK, HOB til 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT...yet another hot aftn with MAF at
98 degrees as of 2 pm. Radar is indc a couple of weak cells in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns.

Water Vapor Imagery continues to show the upper ridge centered
over Northern New Mexico slowly edging west. The flow aloft has
turned more northeast per KMAF VAD Wind Profile.

The upper ridge will continue to slowly retrograde west. An
inverted trof over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US will move
west thru southern Texas on Tue/Wed under the ridge. As heights
and H85 temps lower temps will be a little cooler...to near if not
a couple of degrees below normal. As the inverted trof moves thru
southern TX...and with the mid/upper flow turning northerly
possibly bringing a weak front south there will be an increasing
chance of thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances will continue Thursday and Friday as weak impulses move
south into the CWA in the north to northeast flow aloft.

As the ridge builds east next weekend the Plains should be dry as
the flow aloft becomes more easterly. The chance of any convection
will be confined to the higher terrain in the upslope flow and
intense heating. With drier conditions temperatures should edge
back to above normal to close out July.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  99  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         79 101  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  75  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 72  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          71  96  71  92 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          67  93  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         78  98  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           78 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
718
FXUS64 KMAF 241943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT...yet another hot aftn with MAF at
98 degrees as of 2 pm. Radar is indc a couple of weak cells in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns.

Water Vapor Imagery continues to show the upper ridge centered
over Northern New Mexico slowly edging west. The flow aloft has
turned more northeast per KMAF VAD Wind Profile.

The upper ridge will continue to slowly retrograde west. An
inverted trof over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US will move
west thru southern Texas on Tue/Wed under the ridge. As heights
and H85 temps lower temps will be a little cooler...to near if not
a couple of degrees below normal. As the inverted trof moves thru
southern TX...and with the mid/upper flow turning northerly
possibly bringing a weak front south there will be an increasing
chance of thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances will continue Thursday and Friday as weak impulses move
south into the CWA in the north to northeast flow aloft.

As the ridge builds east next weekend the Plains should be dry as
the flow aloft becomes more easterly. The chance of any convection
will be confined to the higher terrain in the upslope flow and
intense heating. With drier conditions temperatures should edge
back to above normal to close out July.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  99  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         79 101  78  96 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  75  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 72  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          71  96  71  92 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          67  93  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         78  98  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           78 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
208
FXUS64 KMAF 241643
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with an
occasional higher gust.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 544 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Prevailing southeasterly winds will become gusty this morning
into early afternoon.  VFR will prevail throughout the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
359
FXUS64 KMAF 241044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing southeasterly winds will become gusty this morning
into early afternoon.  VFR will prevail throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
997
FXUS64 KMAF 240814
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
604
FXUS64 KMAF 240453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.  Southeast winds will become
gusty between 24/14Z and 24/19Z at most terminals, and remain that
way until around 25/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
895
FXUS64 KMAF 232244
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 pm CDT the temperature at MAF has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo`s CWA progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however Water Vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically bone dry in the mid levels over
Central Texas west into Southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to the four corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and H85 temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the Southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into South Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the CWA its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the Plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
039
FXUS64 KMAF 231900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 pm CDT the temperature at MAF has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo`s CWA progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however Water Vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically bone dry in the mid levels over
Central Texas west into Southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to the four corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and H85 temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the Southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into South Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the CWA its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the Plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
270
FXUS64 KMAF 231700
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with some
occasional higher gusts, especially this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


67/29
380
FXUS64 KMAF 231101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
894
FXUS64 KMAF 230813
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
150
FXUS64 KMAF 230501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation forecast is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A persistent forecast will continue today, which means VFR
conditions for all aviation interests across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas through tonight. Prevailing surface winds will be
southeasterly, for the most part, with a few higher gusts at any
of the terminals of 20 to 21kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
572
FXUS64 KMAF 222248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will remain
out of the southeast with sustained speeds generally 12kt or less.
Gusts to 15-20kt may persist the first few hours of the forecast
period, but are expected to diminish overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Friday...as has been the case all
July above normal temperatures are the unfortunate rule. As of 2
PM CDT the temperature was 97 degrees at MAF.

Water Vapor Imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the subtropical ridge over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Increasing heights and H85 temps will lead to aftn highs around...
if not a tick over 100 degrees thru the weekend. The exception
will be the mountains where aftn highs will be in the 90s.
Subsidence from the ridge will keep the CWA dry thru the weekend.

The ridge will slowly inch its way west next week...to near the
Four Corners area of the US. This will lead to "cooler"
temperatures next week...a couple of degrees above normal instead
of the tiresome 100+ degree readings that have been prevalent this
month as heights and H85 temps lower. Moisture will be on the
increase as well. Convection will be on the uptick...particularly
in the mountains with upslope flow and intense heating. The best
chance of any convection in the Plains will be on Tuesday as an
inverted trough moves west of the Southeast US undercutting the
subtropical ridge.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
754
FXUS64 KMAF 221932
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Friday...as has been the case all
July above normal temperatures are the unfortunate rule. As of 2
PM CDT the temperature was 97 degrees at MAF.

Water Vapor Imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the subtropical ridge over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Increasing heights and H85 temps will lead to aftn highs around...
if not a tick over 100 degrees thru the weekend. The exception
will be the mountains where aftn highs will be in the 90s.
Subsidence from the ridge will keep the CWA dry thru the weekend.

The ridge will slowly inch its way west next week...to near the
Four Corners area of the US. This will lead to "cooler"
temperatures next week...a couple of degrees above normal instead
of the tiresome 100+ degree readings that have been prevalent this
month as heights and H85 temps lower. Moisture will be on the
increase as well. Convection will be on the uptick...particularly
in the mountains with upslope flow and intense heating. The best
chance of any convection in the Plains will be on Tuesday as an
inverted trough moves west of the Southeast US undercutting the
subtropical ridge.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/33
824
FXUS64 KMAF 221739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds will prevail across area
terminals through 23/18Z. Winds will be gusty this afternoon at
KFST, KHOB, KINK, and KMAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/33/70
312
FXUS64 KMAF 221045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at all area
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Don`t look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge
continues to dominate our weather. Mid-level heights and
temperatures increase today into the weekend before a cooling
trend begins next week. Temperatures will be above normal through
Sunday with highs mostly near 100, except for the higher terrain.
The ridge will also suppress most if not all convection the next
few days.

Some relief may be on the way early next week as the center of the
upper ridge shifts west toward the Four Corners. An inverted
trough will also move east along the Gulf Coast making its way to
Texas by midweek. Increasing moisture and lower heights will allow
for temperatures to cool back toward normal. We could also see an
increase in convection so stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
985
FXUS64 KMAF 220759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Don`t look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge
continues to dominate our weather. Mid-level heights and
temperatures increase today into the weekend before a cooling
trend begins next week. Temperatures will be above normal through
Sunday with highs mostly near 100, except for the higher terrain.
The ridge will also suppress most if not all convection the next
few days.

Some relief may be on the way early next week as the center of the
upper ridge shifts west toward the Four Corners. An inverted
trough will also move east along the Gulf Coast making its way to
Texas by midweek. Increasing moisture and lower heights will allow
for temperatures to cool back toward normal. We could also see an
increase in convection so stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
567
FXUS64 KMAF 220515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all area
terminals.  Thunderstorms are not even expected over the higher
terrain this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 101  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 103  72 101 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         75 103  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  93  62  89 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 100  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 102  75 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
909
FXUS64 KMAF 212326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. South to southeast
winds around 10-12kt are also expected to continue, and could
gust to around 20kt this evening and during the day on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate through the next
week. The southern high plains will remain under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge (this morning centered over southwestern
Oklahoma). The forecast hinges upon forecast wobbles of this high
and whether the high will move enough north or weaken to allow for
an increase in subtropical easterlies and therefore a moderation
in temperatures. The best time period for this will be next Monday
where a combination of easterlies and moisture may be enough to
light up the elevated heat sources and the adjacent plains.  The
remainder of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas will miss out
on some badly needed rain, unfortunately.

Hard to say right now whether the subtropical easterlies will have
that much influence on temperatures or that guidance is trending
toward climatology. In any event, after highs in the mid 90s to
near 105 Friday through Sunday, highs will fall back about five
degrees. GFS MOS guidance has been doing well of late,
particularly with morning lows, so have trended toward its
solution throughout.

Cooler temperatures and an increase in rain chances will get here.
Someday. Until then...stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75 102  71 103 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  92  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
182
FXUS64 KMAF 212019
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
319 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate through the next
week. The southern high plains will remain under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge (this morning centered over southwestern
Oklahoma). The forecast hinges upon forecast wobbles of this high
and whether the high will move enough north or weaken to allow for
an increase in subtropical easterlies and therefore a moderation
in temperatures. The best time period for this will be next Monday
where a combination of easterlies and moisture may be enough to
light up the elevated heat sources and the adjacent plains.  The
remainder of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas will miss out
on some badly needed rain, unfortunately.

Hard to say right now whether the subtropical easterlies will have
that much influence on temperatures or that guidance is trending
toward climatology. In any event, after highs in the mid 90s to
near 105 Friday through Sunday, highs will fall back about five
degrees. GFS MOS guidance has been doing well of late,
particularly with morning lows, so have trended toward its
solution throughout.

Cooler temperatures and an increase in rain chances will get here.
Someday. Until then...stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75 102  71 103 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  92  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/70
930
FXUS64 KMAF 211703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through Friday morning.
Winds at area terminals will be generally south to southeast at
around 10 knots. Gusts to around 20 knots are possible mainly this
afternoon though lingering into the evening at some locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 103  72 102 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          70 100  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  93  63  94 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 105  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
668
FXUS64 KMAF 211053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      101  72 103  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                        101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          103  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
197
FXUS64 KMAF 210831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      101  72 103  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                        101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          103  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/33
300
FXUS64 KMAF 210452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals.

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99
500
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated thunderstorms should remain west of the terminals, in the
mountains. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph with
some occasional higher gusts at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another day of above normal temperatures is expected today with a
broad upper ridge centered over the southcentral conus. Not
expecting much in the way of storms and rain across the area today
except maybe an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain.

Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow than today as
850 mb temps warm slightly; otherwise, not much change is expected
from today.  850 mb temps increase slightly more on Friday as the
upper ridge gets somewhat flattened by upper troughs/shortwaves
moving over the northern conus.  Saturday and Sunday will be similar
to Friday with high temps across the Permian Basin in the upper 90s
to around 100 degrees.  Temperatures are expected to cool into the
mid 90s across the Permian Basin on Monday as the surface winds
become more southeasterly bringing in more moisture.  Models are
also indicating an increased chance of precipitation on Monday.
Temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal through the
middle of next week with a slight chance of rain/storms across
portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  74  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  72 100  70 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         97  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  74  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  69  91  69 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  62  91  60 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80

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