Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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622
FXUS64 KMAF 301656
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1056 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies are expected at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Southwest
winds will increase by early this afternoon to 15 to 30 mph and
gusty and continue through near sunset. Southwest winds will
continue tonight at mainly 15 to 20 mph and gusty at times.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist at all area terminals during the next 24
hours.  Southwesterly to westerly winds will become gusty by this
afternoon, especially at KCNM where 25kt sustained and gusts over
35kt will be possible.  The rest of the terminals will likely see 15
to 25kt sustained winds during the afternoon, with speeds decreasing
around/after 31/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016/

High fire danger, windy conditions, and near record highs are all on
tap this weekend into early next week. A shortwave passing to our
north will help keep a surface trough in place across the area
today. Winds will again be elevated today from the southwest
especially across our western zones. A High Wind Warning is
already in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
corridor and will add a wind advisory to the adjacent plains. Due
to strong winds expected again tomorrow, will extend the High Wind
Warning for the Van Horn Corridor through Sunday afternoon. Winds
will drop off tonight, but having one warning instead of two will
hopefully make the NPW less confusing. Downsloping winds will lead
to strong compressional warming today with highs coming within a
degree or two of a record. Today`s record high for Midland Intl`
is 80 degrees set back in 1971. Sunday looks very similar to today
with the only caveat being a front that may backdoor into our
northeastern counties during the late afternoon. Winds will be
much less with higher rh`s near and behind the front.

An upper trough will dig over the West Coast Sunday and move east.
Models differ with respect to the latitude the trough will eject
onto the Plains Monday. This will greatly affect what type of
winds we will see across the area. Model trends have been slightly
further north the past few runs which would keep the strongest
winds across the higher terrain and SE NM. Will continue to
monitor this closely as high wind warnings and advisory will be
needed for many locations Monday.

Have warmed temperatures up quite a bit Monday due to a later
arrival of the Pacific front. This will unfortunately affect fire
weather as widespread red flag conditions are now expected. See fire
wx discussion below. Temperatures finally cool Tuesday behind a
stronger front although winds will stay elevated. The upper trough
will be slow to move out so expect below normal temps through the
end of next week. Unfortunately, conditions will remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will soar 15 to 20 degrees above normal today on
westerly downslope winds as winds aloft increase ahead of a potent
upper storm system.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over most of
the forecast area, and since 20 foot winds will rise above 20 mph
sustained, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all but the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend Region and Lower Trans Pecos.  The
strongest winds will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains, and to a
lesser extent the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor.  The Warning will be in
effect from 30/17Z until 31/03Z when winds should subside, or RH/s
increase above 15 percent.

More fire weather concerns are in store Sunday as pretty much the
same set up shifts a little farther south, and occurs a little
earlier in the day than Saturday.  The Fire Weather Watch will be in
effect from 31/15Z until 01/00Z, and will include locations
generally along and south of a Carlsbad to Andrews to Midland to St.
Lawrence line, except for the Presidio Valley.  Winds should
subside, or RH/s increase enough to alleviate critical fire weather
concerns around 01/00Z or shortly thereafter.

Monday looks to be the windiest day of the next three, with fairly
mild temperatures still over the region before some cooling occurs
into Tuesday.  Therefore, more critical conditions will be possible
along and south of a Candelaria to Kermit to Snyder line.  A Fire
Weather Watch will likely be issued tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  75  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         48  84  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  80  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  65  41  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          32  70  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  78  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           46  78  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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