Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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752
FXUS64 KMAF 220229 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
929 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.UPDATE...

Please see the forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening`s RAOB from KMAF showed a cap too stout to break.
While one updraft managed to sustain itself over Mitchell Co.
earlier, the collapse of the PBL should put chances of surface-
based convection to bed. CAMs do suggest a small chance of
SHRA/TSRA affecting the southeastern New Mexican plains tonight,
and we`ve held some low-order PoPs there. Next question involves
the westward translation of the dryline. Moisture should have
little problem advecting westward to maybe a Seminole-Odessa-
Fort Stockton-Panther Junction line beneath a decent LLJ. However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture surge will be only
a few tens of mb deep, and once some sensible heating occurs in
the morning, the dryline will jump at warp speed east, leaving us
in breezy and dry westerly winds. Consequently, we`ll hold onto
the fire weather watch in toto for now and let the mid shift
decide what advisories/warnings are needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  86  56  84  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  88  58  85  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  84  50  83  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  91  64  87  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  89  59  81  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  52  73  /  10   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   51  81  51  82  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  77  48  72  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  88  57  85  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  87  57  84  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    58  87  53  86  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

27/70

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