Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 280323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1023 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc observations show that, while critical RHs remain over much of
the region, 20` winds have decoupled. We`ll do a quick update for
the expiration of the RFW, and update other parameters as
necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Breezy
southwest winds this evening will become light and back toward the
south overnight. Expect winds to increase to around 12-15KT
sustained by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts to
around 20-25KT possible for most terminals, though FST and PEQ
will likely see winds remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought severe weather to the far
eastern Permian Basin yesterday continues to shift off to the
northeast. Dry, westerly flow has developed across the area in its
wake with temperatures warming into the 80`s this afternoon. Our
next weather maker will dig over the Four Corners Thursday and help
transition flow aloft across the region to the southwest. A surface
low will develop over the area and help pull in Gulf moisture during
the day Thursday. Large scale ascent and increasing lift will pull a
dryline back west across the region Thursday evening. There is still
a chance we may see a few storms form on the dryline Thursday night,
but models continue to be hesitant in showing too much QPF. A
strong LLJ will develop amid steepening lapse rates so any storms
that do develop may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

The upper trough will take a similar path to today`s system and lift
into the Plains Friday into Saturday. Again we will see dry westerly
flow take over with more fire weather concerns entering the picture
Friday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase significantly
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday so have issued a High Wind
Watch. Models had been differing early next week with respect to
another upper system developing to our west. The GFS has now come
back into better agreement with the ECMWF and both now show a strong
cold front moving through with widespread precip Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor this time period as changes to
the forecast over the next few days are likely.

FIRE WEATHER...

It has already become windy today in the Guadalupe Mountains but
low RH is still lacking... it should fall below 15 percent this
afternoon so will leave the Red Flag warning in effect into this
evening. Marginal fire wx conditions are possible across SE NM on
Thursday. It will be warmer Thursday which should help it reach RH
below 15 percent... but 20ft wind may not reach needed criteria.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch in effect for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  87  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
Carlsbad                       51  89  53  80 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         62  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  57  94  57  85 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  80  50  69 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          51  86  51  76 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          44  84  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           59  91  62  84 /   0  10  40  10
Odessa                         58  91  62  84 /   0  10  30  10
Wink                           49  95  56  85 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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