Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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666
FXUS64 KMAF 231140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  27  53  30  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  23  52  26  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  30   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  28  47  33  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  21  51  25  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  15  51  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    47  27  56  30  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Martin...Midland...Pecos.


&&

$$

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