Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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293
FXUS64 KMAF 101732
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is moving into southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin at present. Westerly winds ahead of the
front will shift from the northwest and eventually veer from the
northeast overnight. MVFR CIGs/VIS will develop behind the front
after midnight and hang in through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A couple of upper level shortwave troughs across the northern tier
of states will drop a couple of cold fronts south into the
forecast area the next couple of days. The first front will drop
into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico plains by
late this afternoon and then continue south toward the mountains
Thursday. A surface trough will extend south of the front this
afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. Very
intense heating along this trough with help from topography should
spark isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by this afternoon
in those areas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by late
this afternoon across the northern Permian Basin and southeast
New Mexico near the front. With the front in the area tonight,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible most
areas with the best chance across the north closer to the front.

The chance of thunderstorms will increase Thursday and Thursday
night most areas as moisture increases along and behind the front
courtesy of moist upslope flow. The convection will be aided
by weak upper level disturbances trapped within the upper ridge
over the area and aided by upslope flow. Significantly cooler
temperatures are expected most areas Thursday behind the front
with significant cloud cover expected.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue Friday and Friday
night due to a second cold front diving into the region with
enhancement from additional upper level disturbances and continued
moist upslope flow. Much cooler and falling temperatures are
expected Friday with this front. Later shifts will need to
monitor the potential for even cooler temperatures then
currently forecast if current cooler model trends continue.

Much below normal temperatures are expected this weekend behind
this front as cool surface high pressure builds into the region.
Precipitation chances will be on the decrease Saturday but will
increase again by Saturday night and Sunday across portions
of the lower Trans Pecos and the eastern Permian Basin as
moisture increases from Mexico and the eastern Pacific due to
tropical activity developing south-southeast of Baja. A more
aggressive northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible
Saturday night and Sunday and will need to be watched for possible
upgrade and expansion of precipitation chances.

More tropical moisture could keep the chance of showers ongoing
into next Monday and Tuesday across most areas of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. The surface high and abundant cloud cover
should keep high temperatures below normal next Monday and Tuesday.

CLIMATE...
The record high temperature for Midland International Airport
today is 101 degrees set in 2000. The high temperature forecast
today for Midland is 99 degrees.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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