Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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113
FXUS64 KMAF 281735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect thunderstorm development will continue to expand through
the afternoon... have included mention in most TAFs. Very gusty
wind... hail... and MVFR cigs possible near any storm. Otherwise
expect a return of stratus overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Storms have quieted down this morning after a fairly active
Wednesday evening. Looking for a repeat this afternoon with
possibly more widespread convection than what we saw yesterday. A
dampening upper trough will provide enough lift for showers and
thunderstorms to develop as it moves across the region later today.
The dryline will be held back west across SE NM again today with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s east of the boundary. Sfc heating
combined with a moist environment will lead to a strong instability
axis developing across the Permian Basin and SE NM south to the Big
Bend. CAPE values are expected to exceed 3000 J/kg with lapse rates
near 8 C/km. Deep layer shear near 35 kts will be more than enough
to support organized convection across the area. Several clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
These clusters may eventually form into one larger complex and move
east across the region overnight. Heavy rain and localized flooding
will also be a possibility due to a mostly saturated ground and
PWATs climbing over an inch.

Friday should be mostly dry and very warm as we await a cold front
moving south across the Plains. This front will arrive Friday night
and Saturday morning with another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Models are hinting that a convective system will form
across the TX Panhandle Friday night and sweep across the northern
half of the area. Could see more severe weather and almost certainly
some heavy rain with this system. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed
if model trends continue. This convection will likely give the front
an extra push into the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. For this
reason will carry highest PoPs in these areas for Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will cool well below normal Saturday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.

Long term models are showing an upper level pattern change beginning
early next week. An upper ridge, albeit weak, looks to build in from
the west. If this holds, our region along with the rest of the
Southern Plains will get a break from precipitation. A few
isolated storms can`t be ruled out but the majority of us will
stay dry. Temperatures will also be on the way up with highs
likely pushing well into the 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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