Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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069
FXUS64 KMAF 130528
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Main concerns
revolve around winds remaining elevated around 15 to 20 knots
overnight at several sites, with stronger gusts near 30 knots
possible, from a stout surface low located over the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Area radars continue to show virga showers pushing
east of area TAF sites, but cannot rule out elevated gusts at KFST
and KMAF through 07z as showers exit the area. Hi-res models
indicate a possibility for additional virga development near KFST
around 09-11z (wind gusts near 30 kts possible), but will handle with
amendments if anything develops. South to southwesterly winds will
increase mid-morning and remain gusty through sunset. Expect mid
and high clouds to clear out mid-morning as well.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough entering AZ, and pushing a decent
fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of it over West Texas/SE NM.
This increased cloudiness has hindered mixing somewhat, making the
ongoing RFW a hit-n-miss venture this afternoon.  As there are a few
more hours of heating left, we`re reluctant to cancel what is
already issued, and will let the next shift make that call when
critical fire wx conditions abate.  Further south, mesoscale
analysis shows a little instability developing near Presidio,
leaving an isolated chance of convection crossing the river late
this afternoon/evening.

Sunday, the upper trough moves thru the area, and will result in
dry, windy conditions across the region.  The NAM initialized better
on both dewpoints and wind than the GFS, and is the preferred model
in the short term.  That said, forecast soundings Sunday afternoon
mix to around 650mb.  The jet core rounding the base of the trough
at this lvl is forecast to pass thru the region before peak
heating/mixing Sunday afternoon, but critical winds are advertised
all the way down thru the H85 level, so it won`t be hard to hit
critical wind criteria.  Despite falling heights/thicknesses ahead
of the trough bringing in lower temps Sunday afternoon, lower
dewpoints on SW-W flow will keep RH`s low.  For these reasons,
critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide, and we`ve
upgraded the watch to a warning.  Winds thru the Guadalupes look
marginal for a high wind warning Sunday, given the new
criteria/thresholds, but wind advisories look in order for areas
south.

As the upper trough exits the area Sunday night, a strong cold front
will move thru the region after 06Z Monday.  Models have a very
sharp pressure gradient w/the fropa, and hint at a haboob as the
front moves thru.  We`ve issued a high wind watch for the Guadalupes
as the front arrives, and advisories may be needed for adjacent
plains.  Temps should come in well below normal Monday afternoon,
before plunging Monday night as gradients slacken under clear skies
as a secondary trough moves thru.  This could result in the last freeze
of the spring for northern zones.  We`ll issue a warning or special
wx statement for affected areas sometime in the next 24 hours, when
higher res models have a better handle on what`s going to freeze and
where.

Otherwise, temps slowly begin to warm Tuesday onward, getting back
to AOA normal by Thursday afternoon and into the weekend.  A
tertiary upper trough moves over the region Thursday, but this looks
dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM to 11 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to
     Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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