Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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951
FXUS64 KMAF 232253
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue until at least 24/05Z, and will carry
TSRA, MVFR visibility, and variable, gusty winds at most area
terminals during this time.  Lower ceilings could form, but think
these will be in the low VFR range. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through Monday thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now
developing along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine
resolution models are showing this convection, along with storms
developing in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in
coverage and providing decent rainfall amounts across the area
through midnight tonight before diminishing. The more course
resolution models (40km and greater) do not show as much coverage
or precipitation amounts which provided some uncertainty in this
forecast package. Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the
front better depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so
hopefully we will continue to see an expansion in precip coverage.
The main factor potentially limiting convection will be the
increase in cloud cover decreasing insolation and counteracting
the destabilizing effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  91  72  96  /  30  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    67  91  68  93  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  73  96  /  10  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  94  70  94  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  67  84  /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       65  87  67  92  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       62  87  61  86  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  92  70  95  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      69  91  71  95  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  71  96  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10

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