Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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091
FXUS64 KMAF 171057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front will continue to ease south into the area today,
with north to northeast winds around 10kt or less behind it.  A
dry atmosphere will result in VFR sky conditions prevailing
areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014/

A couple of upper level low pressure areas are consolidating
across the Great Lakes and will drop a cold front south into the
forecast area today. The front is forecast to be near the Pecos
River by this evening. High temperatures will cool several degrees
today behind the front but temperatures are still expected to
remain above normal with a decent amount of sunshine expected. The
front is forecast to settle south and west toward the Rio Grande
River and into the New Mexico mountains by Saturday morning. This
aggressive push of the front suggests that high temperatures will
remain below normal both Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation
is expected this weekend in the region. One exception could be
tonight and Saturday for northern portions of the southeast New
Mexico plains as a weak upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico weakens and moves northeast and clips that area
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms behind the
front.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area,
especially west of the Pecos River. The higher pops and higher QPF
output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the GFS given the
forecast of a negatively tilted upper level system. This upper
low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low level
easterly flow and abundant cloud cover should keep high
temperatures near to slightly below normal values Monday and
Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through Thursday yet another potent upper level
storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting in a
continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday
across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A slower and
more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a higher chance of
convection with heavier rainfall possible. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected.

Kept Thursday night through next Friday night dry for now pending
better agreement on timing of this latter system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  51  70  53  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              84  53  73  55  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  51  74  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  60  85  61  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  55  80  54  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  50  69  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  49  71  49  /   0  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   88  43  76  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  53  73  53  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  53  73  57  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    90  55  78  53  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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