Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191651

1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015


See 18z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
northerly and elevated with some gusts this afternoon behind the
cold front.  Winds will weaken around sunset and become easterly to
southeasterly overnight before becoming elevated out of the
southeast late Monday morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

Surface high pressure will slowly fill in across the plains today in
wake of an upper low moving out into the Central Plains.
Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front
turning winds to the nw-n this PM. Wind should be no more than 15kts
making for a pleasant day. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response
to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any
thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees
cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal
ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry
air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. A few
storms will be possible near the Davis/Glass Mtns where low level
mstr may hold in long enuf for initiation and also across mostly the
ern PB near the dryline. A dryline will also set up on Wed, but
where? GFS is much farther e and of late GFS has been the
windiest/driest and continues this trend on Wed. CMC is closer to
the GFS and there will downplay on the wrn extent of any PoPs that
blend come up with. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will
have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
5h low will pass to the n either Fri AM or PM and has the potential
to result in warm/dry windy conditions. Warm/dry pattern is likely
to persist Sat/Sun, especially if GFS Bogarts its way to the front.

With little in the way of precipitation chances heading into next
week, a significant drying trend will begin, particularly along and
south/west of the Pecos River. The beginning of this drying trend
has already been observed in the Guadalupe Mountains, where min RH
values struggled to climb above 10 percent on Saturday.  Dry low and
midlevel flow through the early part of the week will exacerbate the
drying of fuels across the area, and with a return to southwest
flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching trough, winds
will increase as well as temperatures, with highs climbing well
into the 80s by Wednesday due to downsloping winds and deep
mixing. Daytime RH values are concerning by midweek, with models
indicating the potential for percentages in the single digits
across a large portion of the forecast area. The dryline is
expected to reform by Wednesday into Thursday as well, with the
ECMWF indicating the dryline across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, and the much more bullish GFS shunting moisture to
the east, with the dryline across central Texas. Pending either
scenario, it looks like an extended warm and dry period is in the
offing, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns certainly
possible from early this week all the way into next weekend. Stay






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