Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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231
FXUS64 KMAF 142311
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

It appears KCNM has the only shot at convection this evening, so
will include there until 15/01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level ridge centered overhead today will slowly edge west
into the weekend. This will open the door for at least isolated
showers and storms across the area beginning Friday.

For today we are seeing some isolated storms over the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains just due to daytime heating. By tomorrow,
convective activity will likely be on the uptick over western
portions of the area as a sfc trough develops over SE NM and
combines with a mid level disturbance. A similar setup is forecast
for Saturday as the disturbance lingers and the upper ridge moves
a bit further west. Storms may reach into the Permian Basin
Saturday as the sfc trough moves east. Temperatures will be very
hot over the next several days which should allow for a very dry
sub cloud layer. This will create the potential for gusty winds in
and near any of the storms.

Even though we are looking at fairly hot temperatures Friday into
the weekend, models have backed off on the widespread 100`s they had
earlier this week. Will stay close to guidance which keeps most
locations in the mid to upper 90s with the mountains staying near
90. Mid level temperatures begin to cool slightly next week as the
ridge weakens. This will allow highs to come back down closer to
normal for mid to late August.

Next week looks more interesting with the ECMWF continuing to
fracture the ridge with a weakness developing overhead. This
solution would likely lead to widespread precip. The GFS is
holding on to a stronger ridge with much less in the way of
precip. Will not change much just yet in the extended and wait for
the models to converge a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  97  72  95  /   0  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73 101  75 100  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72  97  72  96  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75 103  77 103  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  97  74  96  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  87  68  85  /  20  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  94  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   58  89  63  88  /  10  10  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  99  74  98  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  73  98  75  98  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    73 100  74  98  /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/29

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