Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 021121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions and light east to southeast winds with some
afternoon gusts this TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/

The upper ridge that has been in place across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico the last several days will begin to move
east later today and tonight as an upper level low /trough pushes
east and weakens through the intermountain west. Intense afternoon
heating near a surface trough could generate isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the
Davis Mountains and Trans Pecos region. High temperatures will
generally remain much above normal today near the departing ridge.
The exception will be the extreme western Low Rolling Plains where
surface ridging will feed cooler easterly low level flow into that

For tonight through Sunday a transition will take place to a
southwesterly flow aloft regime ahead of the next major Pacific
upper level storm system. Precipitation chances (mainly slight
chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms) is anticipated
ahead of this low across southeast New Mexico and western
portions of west Texas tonight through Sunday as disturbances in
the southwesterly flow aloft approach these areas from Mexico,
aided by a stalled surface boundary near the Pecos River.
Temperatures will cool to near or below normal values by Sunday
due to decreasing heights and increasing cloud cover.

Beyond Sunday through next Tuesday this same upper level storm
system is forecast to slowly move from California to the Rocky
Mountains. Continued southwesterly flow aloft with embedded
disturbances ahead of this system will result in a slight chance
to a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the
central Permian Basin with the best chance across southeast New
Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains closer to the upper
level storm system. Progged weak lapse rates and weak instability
suggest thunderstorms will remain below severe limits these days.

By next Wednesday through Friday precipitation chances look like
they will spread eastward into the central and eastern Permian as
the upper level storm system continues to push east toward the
region. There are significant differences in the timing of this
system. Will lean more toward the slower and wetter majority
ECMWF and CMC guidance. Mainly at or below normal temperatures are
expected next week with lower heights and abundant cloud cover





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