Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 190440

1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.



VFR conditions will prevail most of the night across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas.  However, MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop late tonight and affect all TAF sites through at least
19/15Z.  Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail again while
southeasterly surface winds of 15kt or less are expected at all TAF


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.





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