Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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303
FXUS64 KMAF 300953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite clear skies and light winds, fog/stratus has yet to
develop at 10Z. This puts the HRRR out to lunch. However, latest
NAM buffer soundings still hint at a couple of hours of LIFR
conditions at KMAF, and MVFR at KCNM and KINK. All other terminals
should stay VFR this morning. MVFR cigs will be possible at KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ tonight as the front moves through. Otherwise, sfc
flow will veer to the north during the next 24 hrs the front settles
into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm temperatures today will transition to much cooler as a cold
front arrives just in time for Halloween. Rain chances also return
early next week.

Modest southerly flow has helped to increase low level moisture
across the area this morning which is leading to some low cloud
and fog development. Meanwhile, a cold front has entered the TX
Panhandle and will continue south throughout the day. Drier air
behind the front will help to erode the low clouds as the boundary
makes its way to the I-20 corridor around lunch time. Temperatures
will not warm too much across the northern Permian Basin today
with the earlier frontal passage, but the rest of the region
should see temps well into the 70s and 80s. The front could spark
an isolated shower across the lower Trans Pecos west to the Davis
Mnts tonight into Friday morning as the boundary begins to slow
down.

Temperatures behind the front will cool below normal for Halloween
with highs only making it into the 60s and low 70s. Sfc ridging will
quickly move east Friday night, thus protecting most of the region
from seeing their first freeze.

Upper flow begins to amplify over the weekend as a deep trough moves
onto the West Coast. The initial wave that rounds the base of the
trough on Saturday quickly moves into the northern Rockies. Model
solutions then begin to diverge on the evolution of the trough
thereafter. The GFS continues to be more progressive/drier while the
ECMWF is slower/wetter as it develops a cut-off low to our west. The
ECMWF has had run to run consistency as of late, but the GFS
agrees more with the Canadian and other ensembles so will trend
more toward the GFS for now. Height falls begin to affect the
region Sunday and Monday so we could see areas of light showers
develop almost anywhere. A cold front will move south and begin to
focus showers and thunderstorms along it Monday night into
Tuesday. There exists a potential for heavy rain given abnormally
high PWATS and ample lift from the upper trough and cold front. At
this time it appears the best chance for rain is Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on what happens with the upper trough, PoPs may
need to be upped later next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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