Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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359
FXUS64 KMAF 241044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing southeasterly winds will become gusty this morning
into early afternoon.  VFR will prevail throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will
continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see
temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. Other than an
isolated shower across the Davis Mountains this afternoon,
subsidence will continue to squash convection one more day. Look
for temperatures near 100 again Monday afternoon, but this may be
the last day we see this for the rest of the month. The upper
ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may
allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late
tomorrow. This looks like the beginning of a fairly active week
ahead for the area.

An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting
west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our
area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit. It is
still uncertain how widespread convection will be given the differences
in the long range models. Even if we don`t see widespread rain,
clouds and moisture will keep temperatures down beginning Tuesday.
We may even see highs below normal for a change (something that
has not occurred all month).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  76  98  73 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                      103  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        101  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 102  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 98  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          99  71  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          96  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                        101  77  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                          104  76  99  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
604
FXUS64 KMAF 240453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.  Southeast winds will become
gusty between 24/14Z and 24/19Z at most terminals, and remain that
way until around 25/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
895
FXUS64 KMAF 232244
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 pm CDT the temperature at MAF has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo`s CWA progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however Water Vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically bone dry in the mid levels over
Central Texas west into Southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to the four corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and H85 temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the Southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into South Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the CWA its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the Plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
270
FXUS64 KMAF 231700
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with some
occasional higher gusts, especially this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


67/29
380
FXUS64 KMAF 231101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

We are looking at continued hot and dry conditions through the
weekend. The upper ridge has started to shift off to the west, but
our region will remain under its influence. High temperatures will
reach near 100 most areas this weekend with mid 90`s in the
mountains. Most of the area will remain dry with an isolated storm
possible late Sunday afternoon.

Thicknesses begin to lower by Monday as the ridge continues to move
west and an inverted trough moves east into Texas. Increasing
moisture will help temperatures cool back toward normal. Rain
chances will increase much of next week as a moist, theta-e axis
develops over the area. Right now we are mostly looking at scattered
convection, but this is the best chance of rain we have seen for
several weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                      103  72 104  73 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        101  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          95  66  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                        100  75 100  76 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          102  73 101  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
150
FXUS64 KMAF 230501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation forecast is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A persistent forecast will continue today, which means VFR
conditions for all aviation interests across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas through tonight. Prevailing surface winds will be
southeasterly, for the most part, with a few higher gusts at any
of the terminals of 20 to 21kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
572
FXUS64 KMAF 222248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will remain
out of the southeast with sustained speeds generally 12kt or less.
Gusts to 15-20kt may persist the first few hours of the forecast
period, but are expected to diminish overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Friday...as has been the case all
July above normal temperatures are the unfortunate rule. As of 2
PM CDT the temperature was 97 degrees at MAF.

Water Vapor Imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the subtropical ridge over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Increasing heights and H85 temps will lead to aftn highs around...
if not a tick over 100 degrees thru the weekend. The exception
will be the mountains where aftn highs will be in the 90s.
Subsidence from the ridge will keep the CWA dry thru the weekend.

The ridge will slowly inch its way west next week...to near the
Four Corners area of the US. This will lead to "cooler"
temperatures next week...a couple of degrees above normal instead
of the tiresome 100+ degree readings that have been prevalent this
month as heights and H85 temps lower. Moisture will be on the
increase as well. Convection will be on the uptick...particularly
in the mountains with upslope flow and intense heating. The best
chance of any convection in the Plains will be on Tuesday as an
inverted trough moves west of the Southeast US undercutting the
subtropical ridge.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 102  73 102 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         77 101  78 102 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          63  95  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
824
FXUS64 KMAF 221739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds will prevail across area
terminals through 23/18Z. Winds will be gusty this afternoon at
KFST, KHOB, KINK, and KMAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/33/70
312
FXUS64 KMAF 221045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at all area
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Don`t look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge
continues to dominate our weather. Mid-level heights and
temperatures increase today into the weekend before a cooling
trend begins next week. Temperatures will be above normal through
Sunday with highs mostly near 100, except for the higher terrain.
The ridge will also suppress most if not all convection the next
few days.

Some relief may be on the way early next week as the center of the
upper ridge shifts west toward the Four Corners. An inverted
trough will also move east along the Gulf Coast making its way to
Texas by midweek. Increasing moisture and lower heights will allow
for temperatures to cool back toward normal. We could also see an
increase in convection so stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                        100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
567
FXUS64 KMAF 220515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all area
terminals.  Thunderstorms are not even expected over the higher
terrain this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 101  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71 103  72 101 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         75 103  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  93  62  89 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 100  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 102  75 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
909
FXUS64 KMAF 212326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. South to southeast
winds around 10-12kt are also expected to continue, and could
gust to around 20kt this evening and during the day on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate through the next
week. The southern high plains will remain under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge (this morning centered over southwestern
Oklahoma). The forecast hinges upon forecast wobbles of this high
and whether the high will move enough north or weaken to allow for
an increase in subtropical easterlies and therefore a moderation
in temperatures. The best time period for this will be next Monday
where a combination of easterlies and moisture may be enough to
light up the elevated heat sources and the adjacent plains.  The
remainder of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas will miss out
on some badly needed rain, unfortunately.

Hard to say right now whether the subtropical easterlies will have
that much influence on temperatures or that guidance is trending
toward climatology. In any event, after highs in the mid 90s to
near 105 Friday through Sunday, highs will fall back about five
degrees. GFS MOS guidance has been doing well of late,
particularly with morning lows, so have trended toward its
solution throughout.

Cooler temperatures and an increase in rain chances will get here.
Someday. Until then...stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75 102  71 103 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  92  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
930
FXUS64 KMAF 211703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through Friday morning.
Winds at area terminals will be generally south to southeast at
around 10 knots. Gusts to around 20 knots are possible mainly this
afternoon though lingering into the evening at some locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 103  72 102 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          70 100  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  93  63  94 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 105  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
668
FXUS64 KMAF 211053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM CDT Thursday...the record setting hot
July continues. The high on Wednesday was 98 degrees at Midland
Intl Air and Space Port (MAF)...which makes it every day this
month that the high temperature was above normal (normal high is
95 degrees). The record for the number of above normal high
temperature days for July is 30...set in the brutally hot summers
of 1998 and 2011. With above normal temperatures expected for the
next seven days...at least...that record could unfortunately be
within reach.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the center of
the upper ridge over Oklahoma. Models ever so slowly retrograde
the ridge west thru the weekend. The deep layer easterly flow
will become more north to northeast. This will result in hotter
temperatures...around 100 in the Plains...100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in the mtns. Convection
will mainly be west of the CWA in the Sacramento Mtns. On Sunday
the thetae ridge will drift east...and with good upslope flow and
intense heating the threat of convection will increase over the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns Sunday night and Monday.

Models place the center of the Upper Ridge over the four corners
region of the US from Monday through most of next week. This will
lead to northeast flow aloft. The thetae ridge will be over the
western portions of the CWA...and combined with upslope flow and
intense heating will lead to the threat of convection each
aftn/evening mainly over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Temperatures next week are expected to remain above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      101  72 103  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                        101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          103  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
300
FXUS64 KMAF 210452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals.

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99
500
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated thunderstorms should remain west of the terminals, in the
mountains. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph with
some occasional higher gusts at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another day of above normal temperatures is expected today with a
broad upper ridge centered over the southcentral conus. Not
expecting much in the way of storms and rain across the area today
except maybe an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain.

Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow than today as
850 mb temps warm slightly; otherwise, not much change is expected
from today.  850 mb temps increase slightly more on Friday as the
upper ridge gets somewhat flattened by upper troughs/shortwaves
moving over the northern conus.  Saturday and Sunday will be similar
to Friday with high temps across the Permian Basin in the upper 90s
to around 100 degrees.  Temperatures are expected to cool into the
mid 90s across the Permian Basin on Monday as the surface winds
become more southeasterly bringing in more moisture.  Models are
also indicating an increased chance of precipitation on Monday.
Temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal through the
middle of next week with a slight chance of rain/storms across
portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  74  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  72 100  70 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         97  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  74  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  69  91  69 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  62  91  60 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80
063
FXUS64 KMAF 201735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through 21/18Z.
Gusty south to southeast winds will decrease after sunset (except
at FST where some channeling of the LLJ to the surface occurs), then
pick up again during the mid morning hours. Isolated convection will
remain over the mountains and away from area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday...The anomalous and
record breaking (so far) hot July just keeps on rolling with
above normal temperatures expected for AT LEAST the next seven
days across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Little to no change from previous forecast thinking. Water vapor
imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains...in particular Oklahoma. The
ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days. The
CWA will be generally in a deep layer east to northeast flow. This
will result in above normal temps...at or near 100 in the Plains...
100-105 in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in
the mountains. Any thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with the upslope flow and
intense heating...with an outside shot of convection in the Davis
Mountains. Looking further out in the extended models show little
change in the current weather pattern thru the end of July.

Strobin

Climate...Some fun (hot) July 1-19, 2016 record breaking climate
facts for Midland, Texas.

Average Maximum Temperature (Normal for July is 95 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1     102.8    2016
  2     101.1    1964
  3     100.5    1998
  4     100.2    1989
  5      99.7    2011

Average Minimum Temperature (Normal for July is 70 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      75.7    2016
  2      73.7    1964
  3      73.6    1998
  4      73.4    2000
  5      73.3    2011

Average Temperature (Normal for July is 82 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      89.3    2016
  2      87.4    1964
  3      87.0    1998
  4      86.5    2011
  5      85.6    2001

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  99  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  61  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80/70
646
FXUS64 KMAF 201101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday...The anomalous and
record breaking (so far) hot July just keeps on rolling with
above normal temperatures expected for AT LEAST the next seven
days across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Little to no change from previous forecast thinking. Water vapor
imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains...in particular Oklahoma. The
ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days. The
CWA will be generally in a deep layer east to northeast flow. This
will result in above normal temps...at or near 100 in the Plains...
100-105 in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in
the mountains. Any thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with the upslope flow and
intense heating...with an outside shot of convection in the Davis
Mountains. Looking further out in the extended models show little
change in the current weather pattern thru the end of July.

Strobin

Climate...Some fun (hot) July 1-19, 2016 record breaking climate
facts for Midland, Texas.

Average Maximum Temperature (Normal for July is 95 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1     102.8    2016
  2     101.1    1964
  3     100.5    1998
  4     100.2    1989
  5      99.7    2011

Average Minimum Temperature (Normal for July is 70 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      75.7    2016
  2      73.7    1964
  3      73.6    1998
  4      73.4    2000
  5      73.3    2011

Average Temperature (Normal for July is 82 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      89.3    2016
  2      87.4    1964
  3      87.0    1998
  4      86.5    2011
  5      85.6    2001

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  99  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  61  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
027
FXUS64 KMAF 200441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue. Gusty winds during the afternoon
will subside by evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  77  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  79  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  96  73  95  72 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 89  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          94  70  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          90  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  75  98  74 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         96  75  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          100  76  99  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
805
FXUS64 KMAF 192339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with decreasing cloud cover through the evening. Brisk SE wind
should slowly decrease overnight too before picking back up
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge is centered INVOF OK/AR line with ely flow
across TX. As such the moist axis/theta-e ridge is well w across
AZ/W NM. This will mostly be the pattern thru the work week,
although the subtropical ridge will transition wwd starting Thur.
The end result will be the same, above normal temps and mostly dry
conditions (a few showers across the w today). In fact by
Thur/Fri when 7h temps start their increasing trend the SB LI`s
increase to +2 to +4. The forecast is largely one of persistence
with a slight uptrend in temps Thur/Fri in a near homogeneous
atmosphere. By next weekend the theta-e ridge axis will have a
chance to edge ewd possibly bringing some precip back to the wrn
1/3 or so of the CWFA.

CLIMATE...
How hot has it been this month? When we considered the average
monthly temperature (average of daily high/daily lows) Midland
Intl is on track to be the hottest on record. As of yesterday
morning the average daily temperature was 89.5, about 7.6 above
normal. So far the average high temp for July is 103.1 and in
2011 the average high for July was 99.8 and July of 1998 was
100.2. The record of data goes back to 1930.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  98  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  97  71  99 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         79  97  76 101 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  95  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          70  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  90  61  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  98  74  99 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         75  97  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           76  99  75 100 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
590
FXUS64 KMAF 191729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 19/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

SIG WX NIL through the next 24 hours with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 19/12Z forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

Quiet conditions prevail across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico this morning.  VFR conditions are expected at all area
terminals through the next 24 hours. SSE winds of 11-14 kts
sustained with gusts to near 22 kts are possible at all terminals
except KCNM by midday, with winds lying down an hour or so after
sunset. A weak disturbance approaching from the southeast will
bring an uptick in mid/high cloudiness during the overnight
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Tuesday...Pretty mundane pattern
for the CWA this morning with no shower activity and little in
the way of clouds.

Monday (June 18) was the first day that MAF didn`t reach the 100
degree mark since June 9. Of course with a high of 99 it really
didn`t feel any cooler.

Ridging continues to be centered over the Southern Plains...with a
deep layer east to northeast flow over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. Latest KMAF VAD wind profile shows this flow clearly.
Ridging will remain centered over the Southern Plains north of
the CWA thru the week...continuing the deep layer mainly easterly
flow. This will result in dry weather (if not a bit muggy) along
with temps a little above normal. There could be an isolated
storm over the mtns...but have elected not to put in the forecast
for now. Best chance of convection will be over the Sacramento
Mtns. Temps should stay below the century mark across the Permian
Basin and the Low Rolling Plains and a little above 100 degrees
in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys.

The ridge will edge west over the weekend bumping up the temps a
couple of degrees. High temps could top out around 100 once again
in the Permian Basin over the weekend with no precip expected.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  75  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  76  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  71 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 89  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          94  69  95  68 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          90  63  90  62 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          100  76 100  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/49/70
920
FXUS64 KMAF 191136
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 19/12Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Quiet conditions prevail across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico this morning.  VFR conditions are expected at all area
terminals through the next 24 hours. SSE winds of 11-14 kts
sustained with gusts to near 22 kts are possible at all terminals
except KCNM by midday, with winds lying down an hour or so after
sunset. A weak disturbance approaching from the southeast will
bring an uptick in mid/high cloudiness during the overnight
hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Tuesday...Pretty mundane pattern
for the CWA this morning with no shower activity and little in
the way of clouds.

Monday (June 18) was the first day that MAF didn`t reach the 100
degree mark since June 9. Of course with a high of 99 it really
didn`t feel any cooler.

Ridging continues to be centered over the Southern Plains...with a
deep layer east to northeast flow over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. Latest KMAF VAD wind profile shows this flow clearly.
Ridging will remain centered over the Southern Plains north of
the CWA thru the week...continuing the deep layer mainly easterly
flow. This will result in dry weather (if not a bit muggy) along
with temps a little above normal. There could be an isolated
storm over the mtns...but have elected not to put in the forecast
for now. Best chance of convection will be over the Sacramento
Mtns. Temps should stay below the century mark across the Permian
Basin and the Low Rolling Plains and a little above 100 degrees
in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys.

The ridge will edge west over the weekend bumping up the temps a
couple of degrees. High temps could top out around 100 once again
in the Permian Basin over the weekend with no precip expected.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  75  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  76  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  71 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 89  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          94  69  95  68 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          90  63  90  62 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                          100  76 100  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/70/70
053
FXUS64 KMAF 190538
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
No storms currently across the area... may see afternoon storms
over the mountains but should not affect TAF locations. VFR with a
prevailing SE wind becoming gusty in the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A 5h anticyclone is centered INVOF SW KS with a mid level theta-e
minimum across much of the CWFA, including the w. The upper ridge
will remain to the n Wed. A minor shrtwv trof in the mid level ely
flow is progged to track w across the PB Tue evening and may
result in a few -SHRA. Other than a few SHRA/TSRA in the mtn this
PM the potential for precip does not look good, but high temps
thru Thur are expected to mostly remain below 100. Said anticyclone
will develop wwd starting Thur and will mostly result in high
temps increasing a few degrees, probably back into the triple
digits across most of the area.

CLIMATE...
So far this July MAF has had 14 days of triple digit heat. The
climo average is 5. There were also 14 days of triple digit heat
in July for 2015. The record for July is 18 days (1964, 1998) with
16 days in 2001, 2011). Based on the climo record for MAF, of the
6 yrs that have had at least 14 days of triple digit heat in July
the following Aug only 3 of those yrs did the triple digit heat
carry over into Aug. So maybe the triple digit heat continues into
Aug, maybe it doesn`t.

So far for 2016 MAF has had 21 days of triple digit heat, the climo
average for the yr is 16. The record number of triple digits days is
65, 52, and 51, for 2011, 1964, and 1998 respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  91  67  90 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          70  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  90  66  91 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           77 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
517
FXUS64 KMAF 182346
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing storms over and north of the Davis Mtns should not affect
any TAF sites. Otherwise will be VFR with brisk SE wind dropping
off a little overnight then picking up again by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A 5h anticyclone is centered INVOF SW KS with a mid level theta-e
minimum across much of the CWFA, including the w. The upper ridge
will remain to the n Wed. A minor shrtwv trof in the mid level ely
flow is progged to track w across the PB Tue evening and may
result in a few -SHRA. Other than a few SHRA/TSRA in the mtn this
PM the potential for precip does not look good, but high temps
thru Thur are expected to mostly remain below 100. Said anticyclone
will develop wwd starting Thur and will mostly result in high
temps increasing a few degrees, probably back into the triple
digits across most of the area.

CLIMATE...
So far this July MAF has had 14 days of triple digit heat. The
climo average is 5. There were also 14 days of triple digit heat
in July for 2015. The record for July is 18 days (1964, 1998) with
16 days in 2001, 2011). Based on the climo record for MAF, of the
6 yrs that have had at least 14 days of triple digit heat in July
the following Aug only 3 of those yrs did the triple digit heat
carry over into Aug. So maybe the triple digit heat continues into
Aug, maybe it doesn`t.

So far for 2016 MAF has had 21 days of triple digit heat, the climo
average for the yr is 16. The record number of triple digits days is
65, 52, and 51, for 2011, 1964, and 1998 respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  94  75  94 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 100  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  98  78  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  97  73  97 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  90  69  91 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          68  95  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          67  91  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  98  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  77 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
541
FXUS64 KMAF 181716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated out of the southeast with some gusts this afternoon
before weakening this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The subtropical ridge will remain centered just north of the region
through the coming week, and keep rain chances to a minimum.
Easterly flow will prevail over the forecast area which will trim a
few degrees off highs for a couple of days.  However, the upper
ridge will expand back over the area somewhat by late this week
before transitioning to the southwest ConUS next weekend.  High
temperatures around the century mark over the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande will expand over more locations as a result.  The better news
is, the upper ridge may move far enough west by late next weekend/
early next week to allow better rain chances back in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  72 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         99  76  98  76 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  98  73  97  73 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 94  71  90  69 /  20  20   0  10
Hobbs                          96  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  64  91  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 100  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
378
FXUS64 KMAF 181115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Southeast winds
could gust to around 20kt through early evening, particularly at
MAF, INK, and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The subtropical ridge will remain centered just north of the region
through the coming week, and keep rain chances to a minimum.
Easterly flow will prevail over the forecast area which will trim a
few degrees off highs for a couple of days.  However, the upper
ridge will expand back over the area somewhat by late this week
before transitioning to the southwest ConUS next weekend.  High
temperatures around the century mark over the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande will expand over more locations as a result.  The better news
is, the upper ridge may move far enough west by late next weekend/
early next week to allow better rain chances back in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  72 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         99  76  98  76 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  98  73  97  73 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 94  71  90  69 /  20  20   0  10
Hobbs                          96  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  64  91  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 100  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
993
FXUS64 KMAF 180521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and southeast winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Deep easterly flow aloft has taken control over the region, and will
persist this week as the Subtropical Ridge center edges slightly
farther north over the southern U.S. Plains.  This flow regime will
shunt the low level thermal ridge and mid level thetae axis
westward, which portends little chance of rain and not quite as hot
temperatures.  A subtle mid level feature or two may still impinge
upon the region during the next 7 days, but any resulting rain
chances will likely be slight, and over the higher terrain since a
low level focus will be hard to come by over the plains.  Look
for high and low temperatures a few degrees above normal through
midweek with most instances of 100 degrees or slightly higher
relegated to the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.  Thereafter, the
upper ridge will strengthen and expand somewhat which will likely
lead to more locations rising to 100 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       99  72  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        100  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  98  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 94  71  90  69 /  20  20   0  10
Hobbs                          95  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          92  61  90  62 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           98  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         98  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
054
FXUS64 KMAF 172322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue with a prevailing S to SE wind. Low chances of
evening storms over/near the mountains so will not mention at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Deep easterly flow aloft has taken control over the region, and will
persist this week as the Subtropical Ridge center edges slightly
farther north over the southern U.S. Plains.  This flow regime will
shunt the low level thermal ridge and mid level thetae axis
westward, which portends little chance of rain and not quite as hot
temperatures.  A subtle mid level feature or two may still impinge
upon the region during the next 7 days, but any resulting rain
chances will likely be slight, and over the higher terrain since a
low level focus will be hard to come by over the plains.  Look
for high and low temperatures a few degrees above normal through
midweek with most instances of 100 degrees or slightly higher
relegated to the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.  Thereafter, the
upper ridge will strengthen and expand somewhat which will likely
lead to more locations rising to 100 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  95  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  99  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         77 100  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  94  71  90 /  10  20  20   0
Hobbs                          71  95  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  92  61  90 /  20  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         76  98  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
085
FXUS64 KMAF 171710
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated with some gusts out of the south to southeast this
afternoon and evening before weakening. Any thunderstorms this
afternoon should remain to the west of area terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts a wave moving w within a minor 4h theta-
e ridge axis. As such there could be a few showers/storms in the
Davis/GDP mtns today. Otherwise the subtropical ridge will start to
develop nwd today allowing for ely flow in the 7h-5h layer. This
will be the pattern thru mid week and this will have a direct impact
on high temps across the area. Said ely flow will advect cooler 7h
temps wwd signaling thickness cooling. A time series of 7h temps
does show a definitive cooling trend from 13C 00Z/Sun to possibly
as low as 10C by 00Z Wed. Also with the subtropical ridge farther
n the primary theta-e ridge axis will remain w-nw of the CWFA
limiting convection, even in the mtns. Still temps will remain
above normal, but across much of the PB high temps will fail to
reach triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  74  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                      101  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         99  76  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  98  73  97  73 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
Hobbs                          97  69  96  70 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          93  62  91  61 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           99  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         99  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                          100  75 101  75 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/

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