Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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